Preseason 2024 NFL Draft Board: Quarterbacks
Since the 2023 NFL Draft ended, I’ve been relentlessly studying quarterbacks (QB) for the 2024 NFL Draft.
199 games in 79 days.
While things can and will change because there’s more college football yet to be played, this is how these 28 QBs stack up according to last season’s game film.
That’s the key here – – the game film.
First Round Mock is the only draft site that lists and provides a link to each game studied for accountability purposes. If you wish, you can also click the links and see what you think of the prospects. The trail to the game film can be found by clicking on each prospect’s name.
From worst to first…
Undraftable free agents
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 5
Despite changing helmets going from Michigan State to Auburn, Thorne looked very average in terms of arm strength and downfield ball placement. Add in his limited mobility and there’s nothing to get excited about.
Grayson McCall, QB, Coastal Carolina
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 3
McCall looked like a different QB in 2022 compared to 2021 and it’s reflected by his grade, which fell through the floor. An inconsistent passer and an average runner who had a failed transfer attempt to Auburn this off-season.
Seventh Round
Brennan Armstrong, QB, Virginia
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 3
Armstrong is hoping a change of venue erases everyone’s memory of throwing 7 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season at Virginia. There’s training camp value since he’s a tough and mobile competitor. However, with the downfield accuracy problems he showed on tape, he’ll have a tough time sticking on a roster.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 4
6-foot-6, 205 pounds with a strong arm automatically puts Irons on the NFL Draft radar. Mix in a quick release and looking like he belonged on the field against two ranked teams and that solidifies his place on the watch list. It’s not getting his team into the end zone often coupled with downfield ball security issues that lowers his ceiling.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 5
The hope is that former Panthers’ and current Nebraska Head Coach Matt Rhule can instill the consistent level of confidence into this Georgia Tech transfer that he’s been missing. Despite having the size, athleticism, and arm talent NFL teams look for, his lack of confidence overshadowed everything.
Sixth Round
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 3
He has his dad Deion Sanders’ last name, but he didn’t get his dad’s open-field football speed or moves. This QB is a raw one-read game manager with good throwing instincts, placement, and ball security. The game planning looked conservative last season at Jackson State, which helped to somewhat hide that this transfer is gun-shy.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 5
A high-energy athlete who lacks NFL mechanics as a passer. This guy is no joke when it comes to running the football. It’s the details in the passing game that lowered his grade. He holds the ball looking for the open receiver, pats the ball pre-delivery, and locks in prior to throwing. To top it off, his downfield ball placement is inconsistent. Other than that he looks the part.
DJ Uiagalelei, QB, Oregon State
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 4
Yet another QB looking for a fresh start after transferring from Clemson. A former five-star recruit who hasn’t panned out so far. Uiagalelei is very methodical. He’s either good – – or he’s bad – – there’s nothing in between. His arm strength is the draw, but his lack of accuracy is the drawback.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 9
Penix is dangerously erratic. Not only is his downfield ball placement all over the road at Washington (just like it was at Indiana). Defenders had 32 PBUs in this block of game film. Plus, he comes with a lot of serious past injuries. The most overrated QB in this draft class.
Fifth Round
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 8
His 58.5% completion percentage in limited action paints the picture. He looks like the next elite Crimson Tide QB until he throws the ball. Milroe is an athletic dual-threat in theory with very real downfield accuracy and ball security issues. I love the raw tools, but I don’t love the results.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 3
A pro-style passer with a strong tendency to take chances throwing the football. There’s nothing to love on game film, but his desire to aggressively push the ball downfield with his strong arm is likable. At the end of the day, not doing a better job keeping his throws out of harm’s way limit his upside.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 11
Another overhyped prospect who came off a subpar performance at his last school, Auburn. Nix carries himself like a pro, but he’s too inconsistent at the intermediate to deep route levels to be considered starting material in the NFL. How he responds to pressure on critical downs and game situations is not good.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 4
Kentucky gets an upgrade over QB Will Levis with Leary who transferred in from NC State. A throwback who relies on footwork and mechanics. He has a lot of qualities an NFL team would want in a passer working in the short-to-intermediate route levels. The only big drawback is he didn’t show a deep passing game in this block of game film, but he looks like a keeper.
Fourth Round
John Rhys Plumlee, QB, Central Florida
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 7
He brings outstanding athleticism and a big-time arm to the draft board, but then there’s all the other stuff. Ideally, a team with a “razzle dazzle” offensive scheme would select him, because he is the polar opposite of a traditional structured pocket passer. A whole lot of raw talent, but the main issues are locking in with receivers, downfield ball placement, and ball security.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 4
A strong competitor who has a promising future as an NFL backup. If he continues to develop, possibly he may become even more than that. Leonard needs work on his throwing mechanics, but his deep touch passes are alluring. His value as a runner is an added bonus.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 12
An accomplished passer with a decent arm who brings a good deal of experience to Notre Dame from Wake Forest. Hartman is a competitive game manager who works the short to intermediate route level efficiently while being a “hit and miss” deep thrower. The big concern is defenders were able to break up too many of his passes downfield (he had some of the worst ball security in this draft class).
Taulia Tagovailoa, QB, Maryland
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 5
If the last name sounds familiar, it’s because he’s Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa’s little brother. This pro-style competitive dual threat is a legitimate QB2 on an NFL roster. He’s just not a big play guy. Tagovailoa is more of a game manager in the short to intermediate route levels. I like how determined he is to drive his offense downfield.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 6
One of the bigger one-year jumps I’ve seen. In 2021, I had him ranked as an undraftable free agent, but after watching this true dual-threat prospect in 2022, he’s jumped into the developmental upside group. The difference is he made huge strides in learning how to play within his limitations. His completion percentage has also been incrementally improving each and every year during his college career.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 5
A lanky-looking solid No. 2 at the next level. Daniels is a tough and effective game manager in the short to intermediate route levels. He’s also a true dual threat who can run with the best of them. The big concern is he didn’t look nearly as sure of himself down the stretch last season as he has looked in the past.
Third Round
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 9
An athletic pro-style dual threat who best fits the 49ers’ system. Best of all, he knows how to slide. Daniels has the athletic ability to create and extend plays, and a real knack for avoiding sacks. The Texas game didn’t help his cause when he and his team looked completely overwhelmed in a 55-14 pounding, but how aggressively he attacks the short to intermediate route levels did.
Second Round
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 14
With all the “next Patrick Mahomes” banter, it almost distracts us enough from the issues he shows on game film. Almost. No question he is a strong-armed athletically gifted playmaker at the college level. However, the NFL is a different game. Williams has concerning tendencies of holding the ball too long in the pocket and defenders were able to break up too many of his downfield passes. His physical style of play and the frequency he runs the ball also make serious injury a very real concern.
First Round
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 10
This Longhorns’ passer is highly instinctual and he has this knack for making plays and big-league throws. He’s not one to rely on traditional mechanics, in fact, the more he tries, the more inaccurate he becomes. Ewers showed rapid and steady incremental development throughout the 2022 season, and by the last game against No. 12 Washington, he didn’t look like he needed good ‘ol fashioned mechanics going 31-47 for 369 yards and a touchdown.
Cameron Ward, QB, Washington State
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 8
He didn’t blink going up a notch on the level of competition meter from the FCS (Incarnate Word) to the FBS. Not only did he not blink, he looked like a fish in water from the first snap of the season. Ward gives strong Jalen Hurts (Eagles’ QB) vibes with his ability to create and extend, along with his ball placement. He just can’t take 46 sacks like he did last season when he holds the ball too long.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 10
A tough-as-nails pro-polished and confident gunslinger who’s good at spreading the ball around and making defenses chase their tails all over the field. He’s along the lines of NFL QBs Dan Fouts, Phillip Rivers, Mark Rypien, Daniel Jones, and Josh Allen. The big question mark is his returning to form from a torn ACL. Rising is a hell of a competitor who defeated the media’s golden boy Caleb Williams, not once, but twice. Even his dad said he hated to lose as a kid.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 13
If there is a QB who most closely resembles Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes in this draft class, it’s Travis. Everything Williams can do, Travis does better. He’s just as good of an athlete, and more importantly, Travis just looks more natural playing the position. He has better-throwing instincts and downfield ball placement, which gives his receivers better opportunities after the catch.
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 3 games (most significant playing time)
Recently, I had a chance to go big about Milton on Fox Sports Knoxville (starting at the 21-minute mark). It’s insulting to Milton’s ability to compare him to former Gators’ and current Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson. Milton and his rocket right arm is a much, much, much more pro-polished prospect in terms of downfield ball placement and ball security.
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 14
Maye is about as consistent and predictable as the sunrise, which is how he earned the nickname “60 Minutes” during this film study. Nothing rattles this guy. It was hard to believe how comfortable and how good he looked as a redshirt freshman. His demeanor is along the lines of QBs Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Andrew Luck. His ball placement was on point and he kept his throws out of harm’s way better than anyone in this draft class.
Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
Number of 2022 games evaluated: 12
I first evaluated Rattler on his 2020 game film and loved him. I loved him again on his 2021 game film. Nothing changed this past season. A fierce competitor with ice in his eyes who reminds me of Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre. He is mobile, comes equipped with a strong arm and he aggressively drives the ball downfield through the air, which can get him into trouble when he tries to do too much. If I was an NFL General Manager this next draft, Rattler is my pick.
Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.
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