INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 2: Caleb Williams #QB14 of Southern California smiles while wearing “Draft Me” sunglasses during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center on March 2, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 2: Caleb Williams #QB14 of Southern California smiles while wearing “Draft Me” sunglasses during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center on March 2, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Former NFL Scout’s Shocking 2024 First-Round Value Board

Reading Time: 12 minutes

If you’re looking for USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams, this is the only published first-round board in the world you will not find him on.

Why?

Williams produced fourth-round graded game film in 2023.

You will also not find quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy or Jayden Daniels on this first-round board.

The game film trumps everything at First Round Mock.

I have worked 17 hours a day, six days a week doing this since the day after the 2023 NFL Draft ended.

I evaluated 88 prospects in 870 documented games to narrow it down to the top 32. It’s a labor of love.

First Round Mock is the only draft platform that not only lists the games studied to form each grade but also provides the links to the games for accountability purposes.

I believe in providing one-of-a-kind access into the scouting process.

I watch college game film through ‘NFL-colored glasses.’ In other words, I watch hours of a prospect’s games and marinate in the film. It’s during that process I take hundreds of pages of notes extracting tendencies, traits, and patterns that a prospect shows over a sustained period.

That’s scouting.

That is how the grade is determined.

From there, it comes down to projecting the prospect into the NFL by comparing his college film in my mind’s eye to what I have seen succeed in the league. During this draft cycle, I started watching even more film over two (or more) seasons attempting to bring an even broader perspective of a prospect’s ‘full body of work.’

I also wrote two (or more) separate reports in these situations as an additional accountability tool to step away from a prospect and then come back to him again for another round of evaluation. Scouting is like being a private investigator. The clues are on the game film. The more game film studied, the better. I have studied as many of the variables as I can think of unique to each position. Character background work (and credible supporting links) have also been included in some of the evaluations, which is part of the process on NFL teams.

No question my draft board is different than anything else out there, that’s because my evaluating process is one-of-a-kind. Last year, in the 2023 NFL Draft, my process yielded 81% of my pre-draft first-round board being selected in the first or second round.

My board is built to recognize current league trends. It’s a pass-happy league. That’s the dominant trend where 32/32 teams passed the ball more than 50% of the time in 2023 (teamrankings.com). Seven teams passed the ball more than 60% of the time (including the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs). It’s all about passing the ball and stopping the pass. My first-round value board is shaped around this trend in positional ‘order of importance.’

  1. Quarterback
  2. Elite tight end/wide receiver
  3. Edge rusher
  4. Cornerback
  5. Left tackle
  6. Right tackle
  7. Defensive tackle
  8. Interior offensive linemen
  9. Running back
  10. Safety
  11. Linebacker
  12. Kicker
  13. Punter

With all of that said, these are my top 32 prospects in this year’s draft I feel best translate to the NFL. The prerequisite of being on the list is the prospect showing a dominant trait(s). I took the list of my top 32 and filtered it through that priority position list repeatedly from top to bottom. This is not a prediction of the order they will go in. It’s a board stating their game film value as an NFL projection.

2024 NFL Draft First Round Mock’s Value Board

Top 5

No 1. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina

I have loved Rattler since the first time I evaluated him in 2020 at Oklahoma. A gritty modern-day Brett Favre built for today’s game who is no stranger to adversity and has proven he can work through and overcome it. That football resume fits perfectly into a team’s plans looking to turn things around.

No. 2 Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

This Bulldogs’ tight end is only the second pre-draft Hall of Fame grade I’ve ever given out (Jalen Carter last year was the first). Bowers gives it everything he has from start to finish regardless of the scoreboard and he promises to be a mismatch coverage nightmare for linebackers and safeties.

No. 3. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

The most instinctual receiver on the board who makes it look easy. While he’s not the second-coming of Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss, he’s the best at ‘Mossin’ defenders in this draft class.

No. 4 Jared Verse, EDGE, FSU

TALLAHASSEE, FL – OCTOBER 14: Defensive End Jared Verse #5 of the Florida State Seminoles during the game against the Syracuse Orange at Doak Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field on October 14, 2023 in Tallahassee, Florida. The 4th ranked Seminoles defeated the Orange 41 to 3. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

Verse reminds me of Giants’ pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and he has more upside than Texans’ edge Will Anderson Jr. This guy is a brute heavyweight alpha male and an opportunistic polished pass rusher who has proven to be a real handful for blockers to deal with.

No. 5 Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

A smooth, nimble, and physical lockdown corner that glides around the field covering routes short, intermediate, and deep. He also likes to bait quarterbacks for fun.

6-10

No. 6 Olumuyiwa Fashanu, LT, Penn State

UNIVERSITY PARK, PA – NOVEMBER 11: Penn State Nittany Lions offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) blocks during a college football game against the Michigan Wolverines on November 11, 2023 at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

An aggressive-natured 6-foot-6, 319-pound dancing ballerina with elite feet. Fashanu is that prototypical franchise left tackle who seals off the edge in pass pro and he continues to improve as a run blocker.

No. 7 Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

A cat-quick tenacious pocket wrecker who comes equipped with no ‘off-switch.’ However, he’s not just another pretty face, he’s equally as dominant against the run.

No. 8 Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 1: Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies warms up prior to the Pac-12 Championship game against the Oregon Ducks at Allegiant Stadium on December 1, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)

After being Penix’s biggest critic during his days at Indiana (where I had an undraftable free agent grade on him), I’ve turned into his biggest fan after he proved he can handle and overcome adversity. Penix is an aggressive flame-thrower who grabs secondaries by the throat with his left arm.

No. 9 Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

Cowboys’ receiver Ceedee Lamb 2.0. Mitchell is an explosive pass catcher who can take the top off a defense and corners respect his deep game so much that he can easily drive them off and come back underneath to move the chains.

10. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Epitomizes a term I coined: Quarterback minded. A master of the art of leverage, Latu is a speed rusher with lightning-fast hands and he knows how to use them.

11-15

11. T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State

CINCINNATI, OHIO – OCTOBER 14: T.J. Tampa #2 of the Iowa State Cyclones makes an interception in front of Braden Smith #0 of the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first quarter at Nippert Stadium on October 14, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Get to know the name. ‘Tampa 2’ has a good understanding of coverage concepts, he plays with good leverage, and he has that coveted aggressive confident vibe. Not to mention, he has the kind of burst and acceleration that closes throwing windows ⎯fast.

12. Taliese Fuaga, RT, Oregon State

I LOVE THIS GUY. An elite street fighter who’s an active, athletic, and aggressive fanny kicker. A high-effort 6-foot-6, 334-pound plug-and-play bodyguard with a fast first step in pass pro and he’s a brutal run blocker.

13. Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

A 6-foot-1, 308-pound human bowling ball who cracks the pocket open like an egg in passing situations. Murphy presses gaps HARD and draws a lot of attention doing it. He also hunkers down against the run with that powerful low center of gravity.

14. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

BATON ROUGE, LA – OCTOBER 14: LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) scores a touchdown during a game between the LSU Tigers and the Auburn Tigers on October 14, 2023, at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The most explosive receiver in this draft class. Nabers has a muscular frame, long arms, and devastating burst, speed, and acceleration. Plus, he has a knack for exploiting soft spots in coverage.

15. Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington

A combination of brute power and strength. He reminds me of the Chiefs’ pass rusher George Karlaftis. Trice is relentless, has a background in karate, and has a nose for even the slightest of vulnerabilities in blocking schemes.

16-20

No. 16 Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

A lanky predatory cover corner who thrives in off-man man coverage with a big wing span and good straight-line speed. Despite covering like a receiver’s shadow, he avoids penalty flags. The closest thing to Seahawks’ 2023 first-round pick Devon Witherspoon in this draft.

No. 17 Troy Fautanu, LT, Washington

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 04: Troy Fautanu #55 of the Washington Huskies in an offensive stance during a game against the USC Trojans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 04, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images)

An uber-athletic offensive lineman In the mold of former Cowboys’ left tackle Tyron Smith whom an NFL team can win with. Fautanu has long arms and an aggressive nature, which also means he’s extremely competitive and he’ll battle until the whistle blows in pass pro and the run-blocking department.

18. T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas

One of my favorite players in the 2024 NFL Draft on tape. “The Human Avalanche” is my affectionate nickname for this Texas big man (6-foot-4 1/2, 366 pounds) who gets into quarterback’s heads. Sweat can single-handedly take over games once he gets rolling in passing situations and he hammers ball carriers in the run game.

19. Joe Milton III, QB, Tennessee

TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA – OCTOBER 21: Joe Milton III #7 of the Tennessee Volunteers passes against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

This draft’s developmental Powerball lottery ticket with the size of former NFL QB Cam Newton and the arm strength of former NFL QB Jeff George (two QBs who went No. 1 overall in past drafts). What people don’t know who haven’t studied the film like I have, this alpha male has been subtly developing in the finer details of the position that project well to the NFL.

20. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

With hands like glue, Odunze presents problems due to the rare combination of size (6-foot-3) and hip fluidity of a smaller receiver. He’s as smooth as butter at all three route levels (short, intermediate, and deep) and shows phenomenal concentration and ball-tracking skills.

21-26

No. 21 Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

An aerodynamic sleek speed rusher who has what it takes to blow through the backdoor of the pocket or he can switch it up and stunt through a gap to ruin a quarterback’s day. Wins from the neck up with tenacity and hustle. A fun player to watch.

No. 22 Max Melton, CB, Rutgers

A physical scrappy playmaker who matched up well against top-25 college teams due to having the speed, instincts, and level of want that makes a difference. Melton never gives up and excels in press man, off-man, and zone coverage giving an NFL defensive coordinator ultimate game-planning scheme flexibility.

No. 23 Amarius Mims, RT, Georgia

ATHENS, GA – SEPTEMBER 2: Amarius Mims #65 and Tate Ratledge #69 during a game between UT-Martin and University of Georgia at Sanford Stadium on September 2, 2023 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Perry McIntyre/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

A dominant prospect who makes it look easy. Mims has franchise right tackle written all over his game film. He’s built like a ton of bricks on wheels that’s impossible to go through and hard to get around with that quick first step.

No. 24 Braden Fiske, DT, FSU

If there was ever a prospect that was built in a lab for Lions’ Head Coach Dan Campbell, Fiske would be that guy. He’s a tenacious and ascending bite-your-knee-caps-off kind of brutal run defender who has the kind of bend and speed in the pocket that can close the deal in passing situations.

No. 25 Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – JANUARY 01: Bo Nix #10 of the Oregon Ducks throws a touchdown pass against the Liberty Flames during the 2023 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl game at State Farm Stadium on January 01, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

If NFL QB Kirk Cousins had a little brother on game film, it would be Nix who is like having another coach on the field. Nix fits perfectly into the NFL’s offensive play scripting timeline that calls for a mobile QB who can evade pressure while throwing accurately into the short to intermediate route levels of the field.

No. 26 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Everything an NFL team would want from the neck down. He got his daddy’s (Marvin Harrison Sr.) Hall of Fame receiver genes (and traits), which is why he made the cut, but he lacks that dog inside of him. Passes needed to be and will need to be right on the money for him to live up to the hype. I’m not a fan of him blowing off the combine and pro day. It all served as further confirmation that he doesn’t like to go out of his way for anyone or anything, including the ball.

27-32

No. 27 Patrick Paul, LT, University of Houston

What he lacks in polish and technique, he compensates with by being a tenacious competitor. Showcases high-level athleticism, football IQ, and an aggressive nature. Reminds me a lot of Steelers’ 2023 first-round pick LT Broderick Jones due to his lack of polish in pass pro and run blocking (and he turned out good, starting 11 games for the Steelers who made the playoffs).

No. 28 Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Headed into the season as my ‘QB2,’ but slid back on the board due to regressing without as strong of a supporting cast. This proved he needs to go to a playoff-caliber roster to have his best chance. Maye has former NFL QB Matt Ryan’s type of ‘business approach’ and possesses high-level improvisation and one of the best deep balls in this draft class. The concern is as the expectations have increased, he has pressed more and his ball placement has suffered as a result.

No. 29 Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – OCTOBER 21: Ja’Lynn Polk #2 of the Washington Huskies warms up before the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Husky Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

He may have gotten lost in the shadow of Odunze at Washington, but Polk and his dominant vibe popped on game film. A physically strong receiver with cat quick change of direction who is not the easiest to bring down. Polk moves the meter excelling at all three route levels (short, intermediate, and deep). He reminded me of former NFL receiving great, Andre Rison.

No. 30 JC Latham, RT, Alabama

An immovable force of nature who handles business on his side of the line in both pass pro and he’s a road paver in the run game. Latham showed good improvement in 2023 and produced downright dominant game film.

No. 31 Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

MIAMI GARDENS, FL – DECEMBER 30: Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) dives for the pylon during the Capital One Orange Bowl game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday, December 30, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

A pure football player the late great John Madden would have gone bonkers for. McConkey is a tough scrappy instinctual gifted route runner with dominant hands who can get deep with his 4.39 (40) speed. Reminded me of Jaguars’ receiver Christian Kirk.

No. 32 Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky

A receiver with thick muscular legs of a power running back. This will make for mismatches against the often less-than-stellar tackling habits of NFL cornerbacks who would rather not get their jerseys dirty. He’s the YAC (yards after the catch) receiving prospect of the draft who’s a dream come true for an NFL offensive coordinator drawing up bubble screens. He also knows how to exploit zone coverage further downfield.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.

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