Former NFL Scout’s Shocking 2024 First-Round Value Board

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If you’re looking for USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams, this is the only published first-round board in the world you will not find him on.

Why?

Williams produced fourth-round graded game film in 2023.

The Carton Show on FOX Sports discussing my 4th Round Grade on Caleb Williams (courtesy Joe @10snake37) pic.twitter.com/Zp2YdPdgTC 2024 #NFL  Draft

— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) February 18, 2024

You will also not find quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy or Jayden Daniels on this first-round board.

The game film trumps everything at First Round Mock.

I have worked 17 hours a day, six days a week doing this since the day after the 2023 NFL Draft ended.

I evaluated 88 prospects in 870 documented games to narrow it down to the top 32. It’s a labor of love.

First Round Mock is the only draft platform that not only lists the games studied to form each grade but also provides the links to the games for accountability purposes.

I believe in providing one-of-a-kind access into the scouting process.

A word of caution ⎯not all great college players make great NFL players. The NFL is faster and more complex. Even the size of the football is different.

I watch college game film through ‘NFL-colored glasses.’ In other words, I watch hours of a prospect’s games and marinate in the film. It’s during that process I take hundreds of pages of notes extracting tendencies, traits, and patterns that a prospect shows over a sustained period.

That’s scouting.

That is how the grade is determined.

From there, it comes down to projecting the prospect into the NFL by comparing his college film in my mind’s eye to what I have seen succeed in the league. During this draft cycle, I started watching even more film over two (or more) seasons attempting to bring an even broader perspective of a prospect’s ‘full body of work.’

I also wrote two (or more) separate reports in these situations as an additional accountability tool to step away from a prospect and then come back to him again for another round of evaluation. Scouting is like being a private investigator. The clues are on the game film. The more game film studied, the better. I have studied as many of the variables as I can think of unique to each position. Character background work (and credible supporting links) have also been included in some of the evaluations, which is part of the process on NFL teams.

No question my draft board is different than anything else out there, that’s because my evaluating process is one-of-a-kind. Last year, in the 2023 NFL Draft, my process yielded 81% of my pre-draft first-round board being selected in the first or second round.

My board is built to recognize current league trends. It’s a pass-happy league. That’s the dominant trend where 32/32 teams passed the ball more than 50% of the time in 2023 (teamrankings.com). Seven teams passed the ball more than 60% of the time (including the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs). It’s all about passing the ball and stopping the pass. My first-round value board is shaped around this trend in positional ‘order of importance.’

1. Quarterback
2. Elite tight end/wide receiver
3. Edge rusher
4. Cornerback
5. Left tackle
6. Right tackle
7. Defensive tackle
8. Interior offensive linemen
9. Running back
10. Safety
11. Linebacker
12. Kicker
13. Punter

With all of that said, these are my top 32 prospects in this year’s draft I feel best translate to the NFL. The prerequisite of being on the list is the prospect showing a dominant trait(s). I took the list of my top 32 and filtered it through that priority position list repeatedly from top to bottom. This is not a prediction of the order they will go in. It’s a board stating their game film value as an NFL projection.

2024 NFL Draft First Round Mock’s Value Board

Top 5

No 1. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina

As a former #NFL Scout, my 2024 NFL Draft QB1 Spencer Rattler — featured on CBS Sports — @TheBigSpur247 pic.twitter.com/rddxVTzlae

— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) February 19, 2024

I have loved Rattler since the first time I evaluated him in 2020 at Oklahoma. A gritty modern-day Brett Favre built for today’s game who is no stranger to adversity and has proven he can work through and overcome it. That football resume fits perfectly into a team’s plans looking to turn things around.

No. 2 Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

This Bulldogs’ tight end is only the second pre-draft Hall of Fame grade I’ve ever given out (Jalen Carter last year was the first). Bowers gives it everything he has from start to finish regardless of the scoreboard and he promises to be a mismatch coverage nightmare for linebackers and safeties.

No. 3. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

The most instinctual receiver on the board who makes it look easy. While he’s not the second-coming of Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss, he’s the best at ‘Mossin’ defenders in this draft class.

No. 4 Jared Verse, EDGE, FSU

Verse reminds me of Giants’ pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and he has more upside than Texans’ edge Will Anderson Jr. This guy is a brute heavyweight alpha male and an opportunistic polished pass rusher who has proven to be a real handful for blockers to deal with.

No. 5 Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

A smooth, nimble, and physical lockdown corner that glides around the field covering routes short, intermediate, and deep. He also likes to bait quarterbacks for fun.

6-10

No. 6 Olumuyiwa Fashanu, LT, Penn State

An aggressive-natured 6-foot-6, 319-pound dancing ballerina with elite feet. Fashanu is that prototypical franchise left tackle who seals off the edge in pass pro and he continues to improve as a run blocker.

No. 7 Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

A cat-quick tenacious pocket wrecker who comes equipped with no ‘off-switch.’ However, he’s not just another pretty face, he’s equally as dominant against the run.

No. 8 Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

After being Penix’s biggest critic during his days at Indiana (where I had an undraftable free agent grade on him), I’ve turned into his biggest fan after he proved he can handle and overcome adversity. Penix is an aggressive flame-thrower who grabs secondaries by the throat with his left arm.

No. 9 Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

Cowboys’ receiver Ceedee Lamb 2.0. Mitchell is an explosive pass catcher who can take the top off a defense and corners respect his deep game so much that he can easily drive them off and come back underneath to move the chains.

10. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Epitomizes a term I coined: Quarterback minded. A master of the art of leverage, Latu is a speed rusher with lightning-fast hands and he knows how to use them.

11-15

11. T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State

Get to know the name. ‘Tampa 2’ has a good understanding of coverage concepts, he plays with good leverage, and he has that coveted aggressive confident vibe. Not to mention, he has the kind of burst and acceleration that closes throwing windows ⎯fast.

12. Taliese Fuaga, RT, Oregon State

I LOVE THIS GUY. An elite street fighter who’s an active, athletic, and aggressive fanny kicker. A high-effort 6-foot-6, 334-pound plug-and-play bodyguard with a fast first step in pass pro and he’s a brutal run blocker.

13. Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

A 6-foot-1, 308-pound human bowling ball who cracks the pocket open like an egg in passing situations. Murphy presses gaps HARD and draws a lot of attention doing it. He also hunkers down against the run with that powerful low center of gravity.

14. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The most explosive receiver in this draft class. Nabers has a muscular frame, long arms, and devastating burst, speed, and acceleration. Plus, he has a knack for exploiting soft spots in coverage.

15. Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington

A combination of brute power and strength. He reminds me of the Chiefs’ pass rusher George Karlaftis. Trice is relentless, has a background in karate, and has a nose for even the slightest of vulnerabilities in blocking schemes.

16-20

No. 16 Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

A lanky predatory cover corner who thrives in off-man man coverage with a big wing span and good straight-line speed. Despite covering like a receiver’s shadow, he avoids penalty flags. The closest thing to Seahawks’ 2023 first-round pick Devon Witherspoon in this draft.

No. 17 Troy Fautanu, LT, Washington

An uber-athletic offensive lineman In the mold of former Cowboys’ left tackle Tyron Smith whom an NFL team can win with. Fautanu has long arms and an aggressive nature, which also means he’s extremely competitive and he’ll battle until the whistle blows in pass pro and the run-blocking department.

18. T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas

One of my favorite players in the 2024 NFL Draft on tape. “The Human Avalanche” is my affectionate nickname for this Texas big man (6-foot-4 1/2, 366 pounds) who gets into quarterback’s heads. Sweat can single-handedly take over games once he gets rolling in passing situations and he hammers ball carriers in the run game.

19. Joe Milton III, QB, Tennessee

This draft’s developmental Powerball lottery ticket with the size of former NFL QB Cam Newton and the arm strength of former NFL QB Jeff George (two QBs who went No. 1 overall in past drafts). What people don’t know who haven’t studied the film like I have, this alpha male has been subtly developing in the finer details of the position that project well to the NFL.

20. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

With hands like glue, Odunze presents problems due to the rare combination of size (6-foot-3) and hip fluidity of a smaller receiver. He’s as smooth as butter at all three route levels (short, intermediate, and deep) and shows phenomenal concentration and ball-tracking skills.

21-26

No. 21 Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

An aerodynamic sleek speed rusher who has what it takes to blow through the backdoor of the pocket or he can switch it up and stunt through a gap to ruin a quarterback’s day. Wins from the neck up with tenacity and hustle. A fun player to watch.

No. 22 Max Melton, CB, Rutgers

A physical scrappy playmaker who matched up well against top-25 college teams due to having the speed, instincts, and level of want that makes a difference. Melton never gives up and excels in press man, off-man, and zone coverage giving an NFL defensive coordinator ultimate game-planning scheme flexibility.

No. 23 Amarius Mims, RT, Georgia

A dominant prospect who makes it look easy. Mims has franchise right tackle written all over his game film. He’s built like a ton of bricks on wheels that’s impossible to go through and hard to get around with that quick first step.

No. 24 Braden Fiske, DT, FSU

If there was ever a prospect that was built in a lab for Lions’ Head Coach Dan Campbell, Fiske would be that guy. He’s a tenacious and ascending bite-your-knee-caps-off kind of brutal run defender who has the kind of bend and speed in the pocket that can close the deal in passing situations.

No. 25 Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

If NFL QB Kirk Cousins had a little brother on game film, it would be Nix who is like having another coach on the field. Nix fits perfectly into the NFL’s offensive play scripting timeline that calls for a mobile QB who can evade pressure while throwing accurately into the short to intermediate route levels of the field.

No. 26 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Everything an NFL team would want from the neck down. He got his daddy’s (Marvin Harrison Sr.) Hall of Fame receiver genes (and traits), which is why he made the cut, but he lacks that dog inside of him. Passes needed to be and will need to be right on the money for him to live up to the hype. I’m not a fan of him blowing off the combine and pro day. It all served as further confirmation that he doesn’t like to go out of his way for anyone or anything, including the ball.

27-32

No. 27 Patrick Paul, LT, University of Houston

What he lacks in polish and technique, he compensates with by being a tenacious competitor. Showcases high-level athleticism, football IQ, and an aggressive nature. Reminds me a lot of Steelers’ 2023 first-round pick LT Broderick Jones due to his lack of polish in pass pro and run blocking (and he turned out good, starting 11 games for the Steelers who made the playoffs).

No. 28 Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Headed into the season as my ‘QB2,’ but slid back on the board due to regressing without as strong of a supporting cast. This proved he needs to go to a playoff-caliber roster to have his best chance. Maye has former NFL QB Matt Ryan’s type of ‘business approach’ and possesses high-level improvisation and one of the best deep balls in this draft class. The concern is as the expectations have increased, he has pressed more and his ball placement has suffered as a result.

No. 29 Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington

He may have gotten lost in the shadow of Odunze at Washington, but Polk and his dominant vibe popped on game film. A physically strong receiver with cat quick change of direction who is not the easiest to bring down. Polk moves the meter excelling at all three route levels (short, intermediate, and deep). He reminded me of former NFL receiving great, Andre Rison.

No. 30 JC Latham, RT, Alabama

An immovable force of nature who handles business on his side of the line in both pass pro and he’s a road paver in the run game. Latham showed good improvement in 2023 and produced downright dominant game film.

No. 31 Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

A pure football player the late great John Madden would have gone bonkers for. McConkey is a tough scrappy instinctual gifted route runner with dominant hands who can get deep with his 4.39 (40) speed. Reminded me of Jaguars’ receiver Christian Kirk.

No. 32 Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky

A receiver with thick muscular legs of a power running back. This will make for mismatches against the often less-than-stellar tackling habits of NFL cornerbacks who would rather not get their jerseys dirty. He’s the YAC (yards after the catch) receiving prospect of the draft who’s a dream come true for an NFL offensive coordinator drawing up bubble screens. He also knows how to exploit zone coverage further downfield.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.