NFL.com Over-Grades Utah Tight End Dalton Kincaid

Utah’s Dalton Kincaid is a good tight-end (TE), but there’s a difference between good and great.

That has not stopped NFL.com from mocking Kincaid into the first-round, and it bothers me because nobody is more piped into the league.

A first-round prospect must show dominant characteristics on game film, and Kincaid has not shown any.

Where does NFL.com have Kincaid rated?

In their four most recent first-round mocks:

Lance Zierlein: Mayer (No. 15) and Kincaid (No. 25).

Bucky Brooks: Mayer (No. 15) and Kincaid (No. 24).

Daniel Jeremiah: Kincaid (No. 15) and Mayer (No. 28).

Chad Reuter: Kincaid (No. 11) and Mayer (No. 18).

No mention of Georgia’s Darnell Washington in any of the four mocks.

As somebody who has studied Mayer in seven games over the past two seasons, and Kincaid in eight games within that time span, Mayer is the clear-cut TE1 in this draft class.

Why?

On game film, Mayer’s route running and abilities to clear out areas for other receivers, and to create route leverage are noticeably better than Kincaid. Additionally, Mayer is a better blocker.

Don’t get me started about Washington, who is an aggressive alpha like Seahawks’ receiver, D.K. Metcalf in the body of a tight-end, and he’s like having a sixth offensive lineman on the field when it comes to blocking.

What does the game film say about Kincaid?

He’s a good college receiving tight-end, who often made the first-defender miss and regularly picked up chunks of yardage after catches.

Kincaid has good enough speed, athletic ability and toughness to be productive in the short to intermediate route-levels, but he didn’t do anything that blew me away.

This Utah tight-end reminds me of Dallas’ TE Dalton Schultz. They are similar size (Kincaid 6-foot-4, 240 pounds and Schultz is 6-foot-5, 244).

Schultz (2018: Fourth-Round) hasn’t put up numbers that rank amongst the elite tight-ends in the league. Schultz didn’t even crack NFL.com’s top-10 list released in October.

When I think of first-round tight-ends in recent drafts, I think of Kyle Pitts (2021: No. 4) and T.J. Hockenson (2019: No. 8). I can’t put Kincaid in that category.

Let’s get physical

Back when I grew up, my mom liked to play this song by Olivia Newton John, Physical. The lyrics were, “Let’s get physical, physical, I wanna get physical, let’s get physical.”

Kincaid is not a factor when coverage gets physical in press man and double teams.

I noticed it against USC, Oregon and Florida. NFL defenses will figure this out quickly as well, and then what?

What’s the other concern?

I thought Utah’s other tight-ends looked better than Kincaid in these games.

Don’t laugh.

I thought it when I saw their tight-ends, Brant Kuithe (10.8 yards-per-catch) and Thomas Yassmin (23.2) catching passes. Kincaid averaged 12.7 yards-per-catch. Kuithe ran more creative routes and Yassmin showed better break-away ability.

Is Kincaid just a by-product of being at the right place at the right time in a high tight-end distribution offense?

#86 Dalton Kincaid 6-foot-4, 240 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: Third-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 21.9% (up from 2.5% on November 28) of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of March 11, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

First-Round Mock Big Board: TBD

Level of competition: High

2022 game film reviewed: UCLA, USC, Florida, Oregon, and USC (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2021 stats: 36 receptions (42 targets), 510 yards (14.2 avg.), 8 TD, 43-long

2022 stats: 70 catches (96 targets), 890 yards (12.7 avg.), 8 TD, 37-long

Note: He comes with legitimate medical questions following the discovery of a reported “tiny fracture in his back” during NFL Combine medical evaluations. Kincaid fought through multiple injuries in 2022, including a shoulder issue (FOX Sports)

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Tough lanky productive pass catcher with long arms, above average playing speed, acceleration and catch radius. Lined up tight and out wide. Possession receiver in the body of a tight-end. Ran an elementary looking route tree of slant, hook and shallow crossing routes. Gets up the seems effectively at the intermediate route level. Crisp change of direction, but doesn’t create much separation. No separation on numerous non-targeted routes. Decent catch radius. Showed excellent concentration. Strong catching hands. Didn’t consistently work back to the quarterback when he was in trouble. Determined runner after the catch. High-effort positional run blocker. Trouble sustaining due to limited playing strength.

Final words

Kincaid will become an average NFL starter.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.