Luke Musgrave: Biggest First Round Risk in the 2023 NFL Draft

Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave was one of the best tight-ends (TE) I’ve ever seen.

In the first two games last season.

Then he suffered a left knee injury game in that second game, and it caused him to miss the rest of the year.

However, he did make it back in time for the Senior Bowl at the beginning of February, and he did run the 40-yard-dash at the NFL Scouting Combine later that month.

Musgrave looked good at the Senior Bowl practices, but he didn’t look the same during the actual Senior Bowl game (2 catches for 13 yards). He ran routes more gingerly, didn’t accelerate as fast, and he didn’t plant and change direction as hard.

Then he was slow getting up from his second catch in that game.

What was the medical outcome?

CBS reported:

Projected by some as a Day 2 pick, there was some concern Musgrave had sustained an injury to his surgically repaired knee after sustaining a hit during the Senior Bowl. Those fears appear to be gone, as the big-bodied target allegedly passed every medical test with flying colors. Musgrave is expected to run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, but he’s reportedly waiting to do any sort of agility drills until his Oregon State Pro Day on March 13.

Sure enough, Musgrave did run the 40 at the Scouting Combine and posted a 4.61 (fourth fastest time amongst tight-ends participating). The most encouraging part was watching him run, and him showing no signs of any lingering knee issues.

He also didn’t look hindered Monday (March 13) at his Pro Day.

What about his limited production?

Since 2019 at Oregon State when Musgrave began playing there, he logged 47 receptions for 633 yards (13.5 avg.) and 2 touchdowns.

Wait a minute.

Those don’t sound like first-round numbers.

Why in the heck would I ever go out on a limb for him?

Special route runner

Musgrave is the type of route runner that could run a career of pass patterns straight into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

This Oregon State tight-end looks incredibly fluid releasing into his routes, he looked like NFL All-Pro.

He reminded me of Hall of Fame tight-end Tony Gonzalez. I’m not going as far to compare him to Gonzalez, but the name did cross my mind while watching Musgrave’s game film.

He looked smooth gliding accelerating up the seams while running complex and creative routes.

What makes his route running so special?

He didn’t just run standard-looking routes.

Musgrave ran “three-point routes,” which I haven’t seen before. They were routes that looked more like a star constellation in the night sky. He would be running in one direction, crisply pivot to a second break-point, before pivoting to a third catch-point location.

He already had shown the ability to make a crisp change of direction, and the extra pivot point in his routes created even more separation.

Big play factor

Musgrave has additionally shown he can stretch the field.

He’s like a wide receiver in the body of a tight end. This makes him even more of a dynamic threat.

I liked him so much on game film, despite the risk, he’s my TE2 in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Luke Musgrave 6-foot-6, 250 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 11.8% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of March 14, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

First Round Mock Big Board: TBD

Level of competition: High

2022 game film reviewed: Fresno State, Boise State, Senior Bowl practice, Senior Bowl game (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2021 stats: 22 catches (40 targets for a 55% catch rate), 304 yards (13.8 avg.), 1 TD, 35-long

2022 stats: 11 catches (15 targets for a 73% catch rate), 169 yards (15.4 avg.), 1 TD, 30-long

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Lanky athletic tight-end with long arms, good speed with the ability to quickly change direction. Lines up in line and can split out wide. Excels in the short-to-intermediate route level. Fluid runner who creates separation. Polished, crafty and beautiful routes. A real threat in the passing game with a knack for finding vulnerabilities in coverage. Knows how to work defenders. Confident hands. Limited yardage after the catch. Try hard competitive positional run blocker who lacks technique. Works at it with mixed results.

Final words

Top 20 value.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.