Josh Downs is a First Round Talent According to Game Film

North Carolina’s Josh Downs has what it takes to dominate in the NFL.

That’s not what I say. It’s what his game film says.

In nine games studied spanning two seasons, Downs has shown two of most important characteristics a wide receiver (WR) can have: he knows how to work corners and he has crisp (and quick) change of direction.

Why are these two things so important for receivers?

It’s what creates separation from corners.

Downs is a master at doing these two things, and this is why he will dominate secondaries as a No. 2 receiver at the next level.

No question, pairing him with a dominant No. 1 receiver would be downright frightening.

Games with 8 catches or more

In 7/11 games in 2022, Downs posted 8 or more catches.

In 2021, he did the same thing in 11/13 games.

This further illustrates (and confirms) the above point.

Dominant in the short to intermediate route levels

Downs is great at catching short bubble screens, and he really excels most at the intermediate route level.

This is where he does most of his damage.

He also shows the ability to pick up additional yardage after the catch.

This North Carolina receiver keeps the chains moving.

Don’t fall asleep on him

That’s because he can also get behind a defense.

Downs has some real get-up-and-go from a stopped position.

This makes him that much more dangerous when he’s working out of the slot.

Accomplished route runner

This is another predictor of success at the next level – – route running.

Downs looks like an NFL veteran receiver running his routes.

It looks like he is toying with corners, which also helps create separation.

He’s open

Something else that stands out in game film study is Downs is almost always open – – when the ball is thrown in his direction – – and when it’s not.

It’s uncanny, but it’s true.

Garrett Wilson 2.0?

Downs does remind me of Wilson (Jets’ 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year) on game film.

He also put up similar testing numbers at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Wilson (6-foot-0, 183 pounds) received an overall Combine grade of 6.50. Downs (5-foot-9, 171 pounds) scored 6.44.

Wilson ran a 4.38 (40-yard-dash), Downs posted a 4.48.

Both Wilson and Downs had a 1.49 10-yard-split time.

While Downs come in a little shorter than Wilson in terms of height, Downs posted a 38.5″ vertical jump, compared to 36″ for Wilson.

NFL Combine NEXT GEN STATS: Wilson ended up with scores of 83 (Production), 77 (Athleticism), and an overall score of 87.

How does Downs compare?

88 (Production), 76 (Athleticism), and an overall score of 85.

Very similar.

#11 Josh Downs 5-foot-9, 171 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

First Round Mock Big Board: Top 15

Projected by 31.2% (down from 40.7% on January 26) of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of April 19, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Previous articles:

Tar Heels’ Josh Downs Is “Explosive”

Josh Downs is Going to Wreck NFL Defenses

Previous game film evaluated in prior articles: (2021): Virginia, Miami, and Wake Forest (2022): Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Miami 

2022 game film viewed for this evaluation: Georgia Tech, Pitt, Florida A&M, and Virginia

2021 stats: 101 receptions (148 targets with a catch rate of 68%) 1,335 yards (13.2 avg.), 8 TD, 63-long

2022 stats: 94 receptions (120 targets with a catch rate of 78%) 1,029 yards (10.9 avg.), 11 TD, 43-long

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Dynamic competitive and polished receiver with excellent athletic ability. Tough and scrappy with a quick release and a knack for getting open. Excellent hands with an average catch radius. Ability to change direction quickly. Good flexibility and bend. Does a great job creating throwing windows. Willing to stick his nose in and block.

Final words

Downs is a difference maker.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.