Inconsistencies Drop Mazi Smith Into the Second Round

What does an evaluator do with a prospect like Michigan’s defensive tackle (DT) Mazi Smith, who flashes first-round ability on game film?

Drop him to the second-round to help mitigate the risk.

There are some plays that are like “Wow,” and then there’s the Illinois game when he disappeared, and was a lot softer. There’s no excuse for this after he showed off his strength at the NFL Scouting Combine throwing up 34 reps (225 pounds).

While I do like Smith (337 pounds) a lot better than Eagles’ first-round DT Jordan Davis (336 pounds) in 2022, and Patriots’ second-round DT Christian Barmore (310 pounds) in 2021. I feel like Smith got a heck of a lot more pressure on the quarterback than these two big men when I watched them on their college game film.

Why not put him in the first-round then?

I have a new rule this year, and I will not break it. A prospect has to excite me while watching his game film or I can’t put him in the first-round.

The only thing that will happen between Michigan and the NFL is the level of competition will only get harder for Smith.

There’s a lot to like about this Michigan defender, but there’s also some softness in him that comes out from time to time, and that kills it for me.

Smith filled up the positive column in my notes, both against the pass and the run. He’s a complete defensive tackle. However, he also filled up the neutral notes in both departments and I tallied 35 times he was stalemated by double teams in passing situations over six games, even though he showed numerous times he has what it takes to destroy them. Plus, he was handled when pass-rushing another 35 times by solo blocks.

Against the run, there were equal inconsistencies.

Clearly, Smith showed he has the raw power and tenacity to rip through blockers like a kid ripping through wrapping paper on Christmas morning.

Then there were the 14 times in this block of game film study he ended up by the pile, but even more concerning were the 21 times he was handled by a solo block. Another 10 times he was stalemated by double teams.

Bottom line

Smith does not attack each and every play with the same level of intensity and tenacity.

Yeah, the ability is in there, and when it comes out, it’s special, but it’s not dependable.

Plus, there’s the other issue on the radar too.

Mazi Smith pleads guilty to a lesser weapon charge

That was the headline from the Detroit Free Press on December 8.

According to the article, Smith told police, “I was riding around with it because people are starting to know me more and I don’t feel comfortable.”

The exact details surrounding this incident are outlined in the article, and more than anything it serves as a piece to Smith’s draft day evaluation puzzle.

This type of background information does play a role in grading prospects in the NFL.

Why?

While the future is unknown, all credible information on game film and off the field helps serves as indicators of possible future behavior and performance.

Scouting after all is an educated guessing game.

#58 Mazi Smith 6-foot-3, 337 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: Second-Round (I would not select him)

First Round Mock Big Board: TBD

Bust Probability: Moderate

Projected by 10.8% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of March 12, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2022 game film reviewed: Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, Iowa, Maryland, and Illinois (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2021 stats: 37 tackles (15 solo, 22 assists), 0 sacks (21 pressures nfldraftbuzz.com), 3 passes defended

2022 stats: 49 tackles (23 solo, 26 assists), 1 sack (23 pressures), 1 forced fumble

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Thick stout framed defender who creates unpredictable pressure, and he is a force against the run. Flashed power to bull rush and excels at pressing into gaps to create pocket disruption. Good hand usage, but erratic effort. Draws a good number of double teams, but inconsistent splitting them. Limited area-run defender who showed he can come off blocks and rock ball carriers. For as much good he did against the run, he can also not be a factor and get moved off the ball.

Final words

Tempting, but I’ll pass. Inconsistency doesn’t move the meter.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.