Arch Manning Got Beat Up vs. No. 39 Mississippi State

Five times.

That’s the number of sacks University of Texas quarterback (QB) Arch Manning took against No. 39 Mississippi State (CBS Sports), and when he wasn’t getting hit in the pocket, he was doing his darnedest to get hit as a runner.

It’s like he forgot how to slide or run out of bounds.

No question⎯

Manning absorbed A LOT of contact in this one.

How did Manning look the rest of the game from an NFL perspective?

So-so.

Cold in the first half.

Lukewarm in the second half.

Manning and the offense looked clunky during the first thirty minutes. He looked a little bit better in the second half.

With the exception of one intermediate pass (10-19 yards) in the first half and two deep passes in the second half (+20 yards), it was nothing but handoffs and short passes (0-9 yards) the entire game.

Conservative.

Inconsistent.

Yeah⎯

Those are the two words I would use to describe it.

WATCH TEXAS VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY CLICKING HERE

Texas had 32 rushing attempts mixed in (Manning accounted for 13 of those).

Some drives bogged down sooner than others.

Texas won 31-3.

From a college football perspective⎯

Sure. Nice win.

But that’s not what this is about.

Additional NFL negatives shown

• Lower energy level
• Bad body language
• Led the offense with a lethargic pre-snap pace
• Shotgun formation (NFL quarterbacks need to be able to take snaps under center as well)
• Clapping cadence (NFL quarterbacks use a verbal cadence)
• Little to no pocket awareness shown
• Patted the ball before releasing passes
• Tended to use too much upper body when throwing
• Mostly one-read throws (including play-action one-reads)
• Locked in with targets

What’s the best thing Manning did against Mississippi State from an NFL perspective?

Ball security.

Zero interceptions.

Zero pass breakups (PBUs).

There was one wobbly pass he threw in the first half that could’ve turned into disaster, but it didn’t.

NFL takeaway

I’ve seen enough.

At this point in Manning’s evaluation process⎯

I’m sliding him down from a third-round grade to a fourth-round grade on my 2027 NFL Draft Board. He’s also trending toward being labeled as a high-injury risk. He pretty much puts himself in harm’s way every week now as a runner.

Manning is not turning the corner.

Nope.

Not at all.

I’ve evaluated every snap Manning has taken in his college football career, and this was one of his roughest games from an NFL perspective.

⎯And it was against No. 39 Mississippi State.

What’s this going to look like against the Seahawks, Broncos, or Packers?

Scary thought.

But that’s where my mind goes.

I keep holding out hope that at some point the light bulb is going to go off in Manning’s head and it’s all going to click, but that’s not happening.

All that happens⎯

Is I find myself backing off on him a little bit more as time goes on.

Manning is not showing the traits that are consistent with successful NFL starting quarterbacks.

If anything⎯

Manning looks like a career NFL backup. That’s provided his ego can take it. Minus his last name, he has the skillset of a third-string NFL QB.

Come to think of it⎯

He has never looked comfortable as the starter at Texas since opening day in 2025 when he took over. He played with more tempo and appeared more confident back on his 2023 and 2024 film as the No. 2 at Texas behind QB Quinn Ewers.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as appearing as a guest on ESPN Radio, Fox Sports Radio, and Fearless with Jason Whitlock. Featured in USA Today. For more information, visit whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.