Arch Manning Tries to Turn the Corner vs. No. 14 Tennessee

He was trying to pump himself up.

That was my first thought when I saw Texas quarterback Arch Manning bobbing his head pre-game. He was trying to psych himself up.

It worked.

Well, sort of.

It worked for the first quarter at least.

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Came out strong

No doubt⎯

Manning gave off a vibe of being more confident against Tennessee when the game started. Maybe it was the fact that he was playing in the same stadium his uncle Peyton (Manning) played his college ball.

Not sure.

Whatever it was⎯

It was noticeable.

I could see it in Manning’s eyes, and he was more decisive. I didn’t say he threw with anticipation. But he did make several nice-looking second-read throws. He also looked off defenders before throwing elsewhere to his intended target.

Solid.

Not great, but solid.

ABC put up a graphic showing Manning started 7 out of 7 for 120 yards, but from there his confidence decreased like air slowly coming out of a birthday balloon.

The deep interception into double coverage with 12:16 to go in the second quarter was a bad throwing decision.

Second half 📉

Manning’s body language progressively looked like he was getting more and more down on himself. It appeared he was going more inward. He was dropping his head regularily whenever things didn’t go his way.

Inevitably⎯

He started holding the ball longer and getting sacked more while showing below-average pocket awareness.

I noticed him doing what he’s done all season on one throw, where he hard-locked for an extra noticeable moment before he threw it. He also started leaning more heavily back into his comfort zone with first-read throws.

Manning had one pass broken up (PBU), and he continued to look inconsistent protecting his body as a runner.

Toward the end of the third quarter, the Longhorns’ coaches tried to artificially inflate Manning’s confidence again by going with a faster tempo, but by the end of the game, it was pretty much nothing but handoffs. Manning tried hyping himself up by clapping to get himself going again when the cameras showed him, but that didn’t last either.

NFL takeaway

One of the main issues with Manning is his fluctuating level of confidence. I haven’t seen Manning play with a lot of confidence since his 2023 and 2024 game film. Everything has been too inconsistent since. It looks like he’s fighting himself to be out there, like he’s trying to will himself to do this.

He showed enough against Tennessee for me to move him back up to a third-round grade on my 2027 NFL Draft Board. Manning in the first quarter against the Volunteers is the closest I have seen him this season to what he looked like on his 2025 game film when I put a second-round grade on him. Per Pro Football Focus, Manning’s time to throw against Tennessee was also his fastest this season (2.85 seconds).

But he didn’t turn the corner from an NFL perspective.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as appearing as a guest on ESPN Radio, Fox Sports Radio, and Fearless with Jason Whitlock. Featured in USA Today. For more information, visit whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.