Oklahoma QB John Mateer is Too Reckless

Passing.

Running.

It doesn’t matter.

Either way, Oklahoma quarterback (QB) John Mateer is too reckless.

No question, Mateer is a tougher evaluation that requires focus on his FULL BODY OF WORK. Not just the highlights⎯HIS FULL BODY OF WORK.

Does Mateer have a flair for the dramatic?

Yes.

Does Mateer have some playmaking ability to him?

Yes.

In fact, that’s the only reason why I continue to maintain a “draftable grade” on Mateer over his past two seasons on game film.

Based on what I’ve seen out of Mateer, there’s a strong chance that NFL Draft Media is going to fall deeper and deeper “in love” with him.

Why’s that?

Because of the highlights Mateer creates.

But again, this isn’t about highlights.

This is about his full body of work.

This is about what he has put on his college tape and how that projects to the NFL.

The good

• Poise
• Athleticism
• Pocket strength
• Ability to improvise
• Competitiveness
• Toughness

The bad

• Ball security
• Deep ball accuracy

Mateer threw 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 12 games for Oklahoma during the 2025 season.

I charted an additional 35 passes broken up (PBUs) by defenders (2.91 per game average).

Is this better or worse than the season prior?

Worse.

Mateer threw 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for Washington State during the 2024 season.

I charted an additional 22 PBUs by defenders in the eight games I evaluated that season (an average of 2.75 per game).

What’s the problem with his deep passing game?

It got worse.

In 2024, I charted his +19 air yard throws 22/46 (47.8%). In 2025, on passes traveling +20 air yards, I charted 19/53 (35.8%).

The ugly

• Too much running

Bottom line⎯

Mateer runs the ball too often by NFL standards, and he does a below-average job protecting his body as a runner. This is another disturbing trend that has spanned the past couple of seasons of game film.

2024: 178 carries

2025: 149 carries

It is commonplace to see Mateer run face-first into defenders with little to no regard for his health.

Does he slide or go out of bounds?

Sometimes.

Reluctantly.

But that’s not who he really is.

What’s it all mean?

That will depend on what Mateer puts on tape during the 2026 college football season.

I’m encouraged that he got the ball out of his hand faster in 2025 than in 2024. Per Pro Football Focus, his time to throw improved to 2.74 seconds from 3.06 seconds.

That’s a step in the right direction.

However, it’s confusing.

While Mateer got the ball out of his hand faster, his passing touchdown production declined, and his ball security and deep passing game got worse.

Why?

He relied too much on his strong arm, which allows him to thread the needle, but it also causes him to make some risky passes.

Watching Mateer in 2025 was like watching two different quarterbacks.

He’s still got a ways to go.

#10 John Mateer 6-foot-1, 224 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2026 Spring Grade: Sixth-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

🚩 HIGH INJURY RISK

Projected by NFL Mock Draft Database to be a Fifth-Round prospect as of July 27, 2026

New Oklahoma QB John Mateer Needs to Settle Down (2024: 8 games evaluated)

2025 game film evaluated: Illinois State, Michigan, Temple, Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, and Alabama (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2025: 25 sacks

2027 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Raw prospect. No fear. Short-term memory with mistakes. Operates out of shotgun formation. Clapping and verbal cadence. Above-average footwork in the pocket. Comfortable in and out of structure. Three-quarter release. Sometimes hard locks with targets. Cuts it loose. Best in the short-to-intermediate (0-19 yards) route levels. Sling-shot throwing motion. Puts too much upper body and hips into his throws. Aggressive downfield passer. Guns it. Throws with average-to-above-average-anticipation. Sub-par decision-making. Doesn’t always see underneath defenders. Eats sacks and yardage losses for his team.

What to watch for during the 2026 college football season

1. Ball security?

2. How does his deep passing game (+20 air yards) look?

3. Protecting his body as a runner?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as appearing as a guest on ESPN Radio, Fox Sports Radio, and Fearless with Jason Whitlock. Featured in USA Today. For more information, visit whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.