NC State Quarterback CJ Bailey is Hot and Cold

When I saw that ESPN NFL Draft Analyst Jordan Reid had NC State quarterback CJ Bailey ranked as his “Top Name to know” in the 2027 NFL Draft, I knew I needed to do the work on Bailey.

I respect Reid.

I put together my list of Bailey’s games at NC State in 2025 and began making my way through it.

At first, I was impressed. Bailey seemed to have everything an NFL team would want.

✔️ Good size

✔️ Strong arm

He initially looked like he had potential as a dual-role threat the way he ran the ball a few times, and he showed he could get rid of the ball quickly and get to his second read.

Ummm…

Interesting.

Bailey had my attention.

But as the games continued playing, I started seeing some things I didn’t like from an NFL perspective.

I don’t think I’ve ever vacillated more in my grading of a prospect than I have on Bailey’s 2025 game film.

What are the main issues?

Inconsistent throwing mechanics

What does this cause?

Inconsistent release times.

Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), these were Bailey’s game-by-game time-to-throw numbers in 2025: 2.77 seconds, 2.99 seconds, 3.06 seconds, 2.60 seconds, 2.85 seconds, 3.18 seconds, 2.77 seconds, 2.66 seconds, 3.03 seconds, 2.71 seconds, 3.23 seconds, 2.65 seconds, and 2.70 seconds.

From one snap to the next on passing downs⎯

His throwing mechanics were unpredictable, and with that came inconsistent release times and inconsistent ball placement.

Vision problem?

While Bailey does not have any documented vision issues that I could find online at this point, I have to wonder.

At the very least, Bailey seems to have tunnel vision to the point where he can’t seem to see open-side pass rush pressure, and he couldn’t seem to see defensive backs sitting underneath or defensive backs who were baiting him over the top.

Bailey was just too easy for defensive backs to bait.

He consistently allows himself to get too crowded in the pocket when he’s trying to throw. He also moved around a lot to create clean, straight-line windows of vision to his receivers.

Bailey’s eyesight is something NFL teams need to examine.

Poor decision-making

While Bailey’s vision is an open-ended question at this point in the evaluation process, there’s no question that he makes some really bad throwing decisions.

At times⎯

He makes some ‘what are you thinking passes.’

While he had only 22 passes broken up (PBUs) in 13 games (1.69 per game), that was camouflaged by a heavy concentration of short passes; it felt like they were “harnessing” him to keep him from being exposed even more. Of the “graded throws” by PFF, 234/379 (61.7%) of them were nine yards or less.

NFL projection

I can’t see Bailey succeeding in a starting or backup No. 2 role in the NFL after watching his 2025 game film.

Sure, the highlights were great, but the rest of it wasn’t. The level of inconsistency was too much for me.

I couldn’t wait for it to end.

#11 CJ Bailey 6-foot-6, 210 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2026 Spring Grade: Undraftable free agent (I wouldn’t select him)

🚩 HIGH INJURY RISK

Projected by NFL Mock Draft Database to be a Fourth-Round prospect as of July 13, 2026

2025 game film evaluated: East Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest, Duke, Virginia Tech, Campbell, Notre Dame, PITT, Georgia Tech, Miami, FSU, North Carolina, and Memphis (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

+20 air yards: 25/44 (56.8%)

PFF: 2025 2.84 second time to throw

2027 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Raw. Long arms. Fluctuating confidence. Average football IQ. Shotgun formation. Clapping cadence. Fluid movements. Average footwork. Eyes downfield to a fault. Capable of climbing the pocket. Sometimes swallowed by the pass rush. Can pat the ball pre-delivery. Flashes throwing whip and the ability to throw with anticipation. Decent natural arm talent. Tendency to torque his body when throwing. Sometimes hard-locks with targets. Shows emotion. Celebrates with teammates. No quit in him. Below average at protecting his body as a runner (2025: 89 rushing attempts).

What to watch for during the 2026 college football season

1. Does it look like he’s having vision issues?

2. Decision-making?

3. Time to throw?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as appearing as a guest on ESPN Radio, Fox Sports Radio, and Fearless with Jason Whitlock. Featured in USA Today. For more information, visit whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.