Former NFL Scout Puts Second Round Grade on Arch Manning

I was optimistic that Texas quarterback Arch Manning would take the next step on his 2025 game film, but it didn’t happen.

“Uncomfortable and moody.”

That’s the label I would put on Manning’s 2025 game film.

Manning looked uncomfortable in the role as the team’s starter. He looked uncomfortable in his own skin. He also looked uncomfortable with the Longhorns’ receivers. That came across loud and clear on film with Manning’s below-average-to-average throwing anticipation (+10 air yards).

Manning wore his confidence on his sleeve in 2025. At times, he was visibly fired up, and at other times, he wore the look of obvious frustration…

I’ll say this ⎯

After sitting down for a few days and marinating in Manning’s entire 2025 season on game film, it was painfully obvious why he didn’t declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. He was not ready. As hard as they tried to push him in that direction, he proved he was not ready.

Slowed down

Manning led the Longhorns’ offense pre-snap with a more methodical pace compared to what I stated in my previous scouting report. His time to throw post-snap also slowed down.

Per Pro Football Focus (time to throw):

2024: 2.74 seconds

2025: 2.88 seconds

Inconsistent throwing mechanics

His throwing footwork was all over the place.

Manning showed a serious mental disconnect between his lower and upper body whenever he was attempting to throw passes beyond his first read. His lower body didn’t keep up with his eyes. His mind worked faster than his body could adjust.

In terms of his throwing motion ⎯

Manning consistently threw the ball with too much upper body, too much arm, and too much hips. It looked like a “slingshot” throwing motion.

Sometimes he threw overhanded. Sometimes he sidearmed it.

Manning’s game-by-game time to throw (PFF: 3.28, 3.09, 3.49, 2.60, 3.49, 2.79, 2.67, 2.61, 2.53, 2.66, 2.80, 2.89, and 2.66 seconds)

Average ball placement

Short ⎯

Intermediate ⎯

It didn’t matter…

Even screen passes weren’t a slam dunk.

Manning’s completion percentage dropped from 67.8% in 2024 to 61.4% in 2025

Downfield focused to a fault

Manning keeps his eyes downfield no matter what.

That’s a positive and a negative for him.

He’s so downfield-focused that he lets himself get too crowded while throwing the ball, which produced mixed results.

Ball security concern

In 2024 ⎯

I charted seven pass breakups (PBUs) in the six games Manning threw passes.

1.16 PBUs per game average

In 2025 ⎯

I charted 29 PBUs in 13 of Manning’s games.

2.23 PBUs per game average

Silver lining in the cloud

Mixed into all of this were numerous sporadic WOW MOMENTS when Manning suddenly looked like a superstar throwing the football.

Hence his grade.

#16 Arch Manning 6-foot-4, 219 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2026 Spring Grade: Second-Round (I would select him)

Projected by NFL Mock Draft Database to be a First-Round prospect as of May 4, 2026

Arch Manning Developing Quickly Says Former NFL Scout (2023 and 2024: 11 games evaluated)

2025 game film evaluated: Ohio State, San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston, Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Michigan (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

44.6% under pressure in 2025 (PFF)

No screen: 52.8% completion percentage in 2025 (PFF)

2027 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Legit dual-threat with a gunslinger mentality. Hot and cold. Tough. Athletic. Fancy ball handling skills. Spreads the ball around. Has enough physical strength to shake off pass rushers. Strong throwing arm. Likes to attack downfield. There are some bad throwing decisions consistently mixed in with his film resume. Soft tendency to sometimes hard-set and lock in for an extra moment with his throwing targets. Doesn’t see the whole field. Excels at improvising. Big play propensity. Good deep accuracy 33/57 (57.8%). Average at protecting his body as a runner. Looked better in the last six games.

What to watch for during the 2026 college football season

1. How does he look throwing downfield beyond his first read?

2. Downfield ball placement?

3. Ball security?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as appearing as a guest on ESPN Radio, Fox Sports Radio, and Fearless with Jason Whitlock. Featured in USA Today. For more information, visit whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.