Carson Beck 2026 NFL Draft QB1

409 days.

That’s the number of days between the fall and the rise of University of Miami Quarterback Carson Beck.

That’s the number of days between the catastrophic elbow injury he suffered while playing for Georgia in the SEC Championship and him leading Miami into the National Championship Game against Indiana.

What all happened between these two dates?

Only Beck knows.

It was likely the closest thing to hell Beck ever experienced, and in the midst of it all, Beck left Georgia behind and transferred to Miami to reinvent himself.

I know I was skeptical of Beck following his 2024 season, and I slid him down to a second-round grade on my board. I had been as high as a kite on Beck on his 2023 film, but 2024 Beck was different, and not in a good way. He looked distracted on his 2024 film, and that caused more inconsistencies. His eyes, face, and body language were not right.

Had it not been for his one-armed, one-handed post-injury late-game heroics in that Texas game, I would’ve slid him down even further. But in that game, it also looked like he was starting to come out of that funk, and that heroic moment moved me.

How did Beck play in the first half of the 2025 season?

Beck started hot in the first couple of games, and I said to myself, “There he is, there’s 2023 Beck!”

Then wouldn’t you know it ⎯

He went into a mid-season slump. His process slowed down, he appeared less confident, and it looked like he was going through the motions again.

No ⎯

Not again…

How did Beck play in the second half of the 2025 season?

Beck began turning the corner (again) ⎯

First against SMU, and then he looked good against NCSU and Virginia Tech.

Beck looked even better in the college playoffs.

I said to myself, “Okay…”

What stood out ⎯

• Comfortable in a clean or dirty pocket
• High-level ability to read pass coverages (1-2 reads, 3rd read 14x, 4th read 3x, 6th read 1x)
• Can manipulate and move defenders with his body and his eyes
• Quick release (2025 PFF Time to Throw: 2.40 seconds)
• Spreads the ball around
• Ball Security (27 Passes broken up in 16 games, 1.69 per game average)
• Deep ball +20 air yards: 21/46 (45.7%)

What are Beck’s two biggest weaknesses?

• Forcing throws
• Off-the-field distractions

But during the second half of this season, I saw hints of maturation in both areas. He took more checkdowns and sacks instead, and his team really responded to him down the stretch.

I’m doing it.

Chips down on #11.

#11 Carson Beck 6-foot-4, 220 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2026 NFL Draft Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

Projected by NFL Mock Draft Database to be a Third-Round prospect as of January 20, 2026

Carson Beck = Potential NFL Franchise QB (2023: 14 games evaluated)

Former NFL Scout Gives Carson Beck Benefit of the Doubt (2024: 13 games evaluated)

2025 game film evaluated: Notre Dame, Bethune-Cookman, USF, Florida, FSU, Louisville, Stanford, SMU, Syracuse, NCSU, Virginia Tech, PITT, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Ole Miss, and Indiana (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

No. 68 rushing attack

Ceiling: Matthew Stafford

Floor: Tony Romo

2025: 338/467 (72.4%), 3,813 yards, 30 TD, 12 INT (62 carries)

2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Field General. Command of the pocket. Killer instincts. Good pre-snap communication. Leads with consistent pre-snap rhythm. Shotgun. Composed. Clapping cadence. Fancy ball handling. Feels pressure. Can move and reset the pocket. Athletic. Mobile. Above-average at calibrating his body with the trajectory of his passes, even when he’s moved off his spot. Downfield focused to a fault. Can allow himself to get too overcrowded. Inconsistent release times. Pats ball. Strong arm. Some improv. Different arm angles. Above-average throwing mechanics and back right foot throwing control. Subject to batted passes. Above average out-of-structure and off-platform. Can zip or layer passes at the intermediate route level (10-19 yards). Above-average placement. Can get impatient. Good for one, ‘what were you thinking pass’ per game. Short-term memory. Wears his heart on his sleeve. Above-average at protecting his body while running.

Final words

Beck is the most NFL-ready quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.