Arch Manning Concerns Coming Into Focus vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt

It looks great on paper.

Texas was ahead 17-0 by the end of the game’s opening quarter vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt, and Longhorns’ quarterback Arch Manning had thrown two touchdown passes.

Awesome.

But that’s not what this is about.

This is about how Manning looked against the Commodores from an NFL perspective.

For example ⎯

On paper, Manning threw a “75-yard touchdown pass” on the game’s opening play. However, on film, it turned out to be a short lateral screen pass to his right that his receiver caught and took the distance.

Manning’s second touchdown pass was later in the first quarter when he rolled out to his right and threw a short pass into the end zone.

Notice a theme?

Short passes

That’s been an all too familiar pattern this season.

WATCH TEXAS VS. VANDERBILT HERE

Second quarter

I had to wait…

and wait…

Then it happened.

Manning finally uncorked one from the 50 on the last play of the first half. It was a Hail Mary that soared right past the back of the end zone. At least I got to see him show off his natural arm strength.

Flag on the play.

Manning got to redo it, but with pretty much the same result.

What did the rest of the second quarter look like before that?

• A couple more short passes
• Two intermediate passes (10-19 yards)

Nothing spectacular.

One of those intermediate completions, however, was his nicest throw of the game. Manning threw into loose coverage on his second read with above-average anticipation. In other words, Manning began his release just as the receiver was starting to make his break on the route. It came in low, but it was caught.

The other completion was what has become his signature out pattern to his right, using the sideline as his friend. Manning locked in with his receiver and didn’t throw the ball until the receiver was standing there waiting for it.

Third and fourth quarters

Manning came out in the second half and looked like he was possessed. From 14:27 until the 9:12 mark of the third quarter, he looked like a different quarterback. Throw, throw, throw for a little over five minutes. Manning was gunning short and intermediate passes mostly into looser coverages that offered larger throwing windows like he meant it. The drive concluded with a short touchdown pass, Manning’s third of the day.

On this particular drive, Manning was noticeably playing with a quicker tempo. He came off more confident, and his passes were on point. He even threw a couple with above-average anticipation (showing it’s in him to do so).

Glad he got that out of his system.

What did he look like the rest of the second half?

It was more of the usual conservative stuff…

Plus, a couple of fruitless deep attempts. One of those ended with a pass interference call, and he just missed on the other one.

Texas held on to win the game 34-31.

NFL scouting perspective

How does what Manning did against Vanderbilt translate to the NFL?

C+

Manning looked like a game manager with developmental upside.

Why do I say that?

Despite a couple of those aforementioned deep attempts, Manning’s efforts were free of explosive big plays that he generated exclusively through the air with his arm. His efforts were also free of errors (zero passes broken up and zero interceptions).

What are the concerns through my NFL colored glasses?

Manning’s throwing mechanics and the fact that he threw mostly with below-average to average anticipation into the intermediate route level.

Manning continues to throw the ball using more of his upper body and arm rather than depending on a smoother, equally distributed upper and lower body throwing motion. He also doesn’t seem that comfortable throwing the ball downfield, but when he does, he is the most comfortable making one-read 9+ air yard throws.

What else stood out?

Manning had his fastest time to throw of the season (Pro Football Focus 2.52 seconds).

Additionally, I liked his ongoing toughness and his ability to keep his eyes downfield and stay focused with pressure closing in, as his NFL projection is becoming clearer.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.