Draft Stock of Erratic QB Brennan Armstrong Plummets

NC State transfer quarterback (QB) Brennan Armstrong has a rocket launcher for a left arm.

The only problem – – it’s erratic.

It’s literally all or nothing with Armstrong who transferred from Virginia in January.

After completing 58.6% of his passes in 2020, Armstrong brought that up to 65.2% in 2021, and everything seemed like it was headed in the right direction.

However, that trend did not continue.

Instead, Armstrong’s completion percentage reverted to 54.7%.

It is now time to go back to the drawing board with this one, complete with a change of venue.

Gotta like

When I studied Armstrong on his 2021 game film, I actually graded him as a late first-round prospect.

What a difference a year can make for better or for worse.

This is one of the main reasons I started evaluating prospects over a two-year period of time, instead of one to try to safeguard grading and see more of a player’s “full body of work.”

At first glance, there is a lot to like when it comes to Armstrong…

-decent athletic ability

-scrappy, tough, and determined runner

-downfield minded

-strong arm

Then everything goes off the rails

While he was still a bit of a loose cannon on his 2021 game film, his downfield ball placement was on point.

Wow – – that changed.

“All or nothing” was indeed the battle cry for Armstrong in 2022. He showed a lot of zip on his passes still, but where they ended up was another question.

His ball placement at all three route levels, short, intermediate, and deep was all over the road, and that showed up when it came to ball security as well.

Ball security is a big one (the ability to not put the ball in harm’s way). NFL teams want two different types of quarterbacks, either those who can make big plays (starters) or those who can not cost their team the game (backups).

The only real chance Armstrong has at this point is a backup role, but not at the rate he put the ball in jeopardy through the air.

In just three games studied – – opposing defenders disrupted 16 of his passes, plus he fumbled twice more.

That’s just not going to work at the next level.

More alarming stats

In 2020, Armstrong threw 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He came back in 2021 with a huge improvement tossing 31 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.

Last season, this ratio (along with the previously stated completion percentage) also went off a statistical cliff.

Armstrong threw 7 TDs, but 12 interceptions.

Something really happened to Armstrong during the 2022 season that caused him to regress. It showed up in the number of times he was sacked as well (college career-high 34 times).

The wheels really came off his draft stock.

#5 Brennan Armstrong 6-foot-2, 210 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Spring 2023 Grade: Seventh-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

Projected by 0% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of June 11, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2022 game film reviewed: Syracuse, Old Dominion, and Illinois (click to view games watched to form this evaluation).

2022 stats: 185/338 (54.7%), 2210 yards, 7 TD, 12 INT, sacked 34 times, long-64

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Tough and competitive left-handed passer with accuracy issues. Decent mobility in the pocket to evade pass rush at times, but not all the time. Sometimes able to squirm out of the pocket and pick up domestic gains on the ground. Strong tendency shown to lock in with receivers and not go through his progressions. Best throwing in the short range, but prefers to aggressively attack secondaries in the intermediate to deep route levels. Really struggled with accuracy and downfield ball placement. Able to put some mustard on the ball, but sometimes passes are too hot for his receivers to handle. Not afraid to throw a block and he is willing to sacrifice himself running the ball.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season

1. Completion percentage?

2. Ball security?

3. Accuracy in the intermediate to deep route levels?

4. Number of sacks taken?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.