Quarterback Drew Mestemaker Earns 4th Round Grade

Drew Mestemaker.

Suddenly, people are going crazy for this Oklahoma State transfer from North Texas. Somehow, he’s in the “2027 NFL Draft First Round Discussion.” Suddenly, he’s a “consensus” first-round pick (NFL Mock Draft Database).

HOLD UP.

WAIT A MINUTE.

There’s a big difference between watching a few highlights or a few games and a full season of film.

The devil is in the details.

From 30,000 feet, Mestemaker looks like the next Jared Goff (Lions quarterback, 6-foot-4, 217 pounds).

Closer up ⎯

Much closer up ⎯

Mr. Haley (God rest his soul) was the Director of Player Personnel during my time with the Jets. He taught me that players need to stand out at a lower level of competition to even have a chance in the NFL.

Mestemaker didn’t look dominant in 2025.

Yes, North Texas plays its football in Division I (FBS), but respectfully, they played a softer schedule by NFL standards. That needs to be understood when putting Mestemaker’s stat line into context (319/463 for 4,841 yards, 34 touchdowns).

The next step is putting Mestemaker’s “passing yards” into context. North Texas receivers picked up 2,511 yards after the catch (Pro Football Focus).

What are some of his strengths?

• Time to throw 2.58 seconds (Pro Football Focus)
• Decent arm strength
• Can rip intermediate-level throws inside the numbers (10-19 air yards)

What are some of his weaknesses?

• Inconsistent throwing mechanics
• Tunnel vision (doesn’t see some pass rushers who are right in his face and doesn’t see some defensive backs in coverage)
• Propensity to miss easy wide-open targets (at all three route levels)
• Momentary lapses of judgment
• Looks like a sitting duck in the pocket at times

Lack of self-awareness

He was at his best when he played within himself and within his limitations.

Mestemaker took a step back just about every time he took a big step forward. It’s like a good play gave him the confidence he needed to try to do too much. The reality is Mestemaker has a “decent” arm and average playing speed.

It always comes back to that.

Who does Mestemaker remind me of?

Quarterback Danny Kannell came to mind while watching Mestemaker play (Kannell, 1996 NFL Draft, 4th round out of Florida State). I haven’t thought of Kannell in years.

Then I went back to watch Kannell’s highlights while writing this evaluation of Mestemaker, and the resemblance was uncanny. Ironically, Kannell (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) was about the same size as Mestemaker.

Kannell spent six years in the NFL and played for the Giants, Falcons, and Broncos (43 games played and 24 starts) while sporting a 51.4% career completion percentage.

NFL backup quarterback prospect

What does Mestemaker have going for him?

• Toughness
• Competitiveness
• High football IQ

Mestemaker functioned at North Texas in an offensive scheme that spread the ball around in the short-to-intermediate route levels (0-19 yards). That’s the focus of the NFL passing game.

What’s holding him back?

• Ball security issues: 28 Pass breakups (PBUs), 2.00 per-game average, and 11 interceptions
• Lacks explosive play upside: 39.1% deep passing completion percentage (18/46 20+ air yard passes that I charted)

#17 Drew Mestemaker 6-foot-4, 211 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2026 Spring Grade: Fourth-Round (I would select him)

Projected by NFL Mock Draft Database to be a First-Round prospect as of June 1, 2026

2025 game film evaluated: Lamar, Western Michigan, Washington State, Army, South Alabama, South Florida, UTSA, Charlotte, Navy, UAB, Rice, Temple, Tulane, and San Diego State (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2025 under pressure: 48.5% completion percentage (Pro Football Focus)

2027 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Unreliable game manager. Strong frame. Poised. Controlled conservative offense. Clapping cadence. Heavy shotgun formation. Solid ball-handling skills. Limited improv. Tends to have happy feet. Decent behind the line of scrimmage mobility when he can get out of the way fast enough. Decent accuracy outside the pocket. One-to-two-read passer. Throws with below-average to average anticipation. Spotty placement. Tends to put too much arm and too much hips into his passes (which can cause passes to sail on him).

What to watch for during the 2026 college football season

1. Ball security numbers?

2. 20+ air yards completion percentage?

3. Consistently seeing defenders?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as appearing as a guest on ESPN Radio, Fox Sports Radio, and Fearless with Jason Whitlock. Featured in USA Today. For more information, visit whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.