Former NFL Scout “Fernando Mendoza is a Guaranteed Bust”

It’s the fourth time I’ve put a ‘100% Bust Rate‘ on a quarterback prospect since the 2021 NFL Draft.

Who were the other three?

Will Levis

Caleb Williams

Shedeur Sanders

How have they turned out?

Levis has fizzled out in Tennessee, Williams continues to regress in Chicago, and Sanders produced the second-lowest NFL QBR in the past 20 years.

Now, I’m adding Mendoza to the list, and issuing one last warning to every team in the NFL ⎯

Don’t select Mendoza in the first three rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft‼️

Why not?

Because Mendoza hasn’t put anything on his college game film that justifies a higher NFL level of valuation or expectation.

Mendoza 2024 Game Film Scouting Report: 5th Round

Mendoza 2025 Game Film Scouting Report: 4th Round

Went back and studied Mendoza’s last three college games

I’ve now evaluated every snap Mendoza has taken in the past two seasons (27 games).

Did anything change my mind in Mendoza’s final three games against Alabama, Oregon, and Miami?

No.

Mendoza played it “close-to-the-vest,” and either handed the ball off (Indiana produced 531 yards rushing in these three games) or threw mostly calculated high-percentage passes to his first (32x) or second read (19x). He threw inside the numbers (5x) at the intermediate (10-19 air yards) to deep route levels (19+ air yards). He got to his third read (2x).

*All this additional three-game study did was reinforce my final fourth-round grade on Mendoza.

These things will be problems for Mendoza in the NFL

• Adjusting to a verbal NFL cadence (he did a clapping cadence at Indiana).

• Adjusting to taking snaps under center (Pro Football Focus: He took just two total snaps under center in 2025).

• Inexperienced at throwing a full route tree. He basically threw the same 3-4 routes repetitively at Indiana (outside and deep that offered him the most throwing leverage).

• Avoids throwing inside the numbers.

• 53.2% completion percentage when he was required to move in 2025.

• Can’t feel backside or frontside pressure that he can’t see coming. Can get overwhelmed by pressure up the middle.

• Per Pro Football Focus (PFF): 3.65 seconds ‘time to throw’ under pressure. This ranked No. 262 in the FBS in 2025.

• 51.2% Completion percentage under pressure in 2025 (PFF).

• “Mendoza’s pressure-to-sack rate of 18.9 percent last season is 36th out of 57 draft-eligible QB prospects, and that number increased to 27.7 percent during his final seven games, which is right around his career rate of 27.1 percent.” (The Ringer).

• Tends to eat sacks (and the yardage losses).

⚠️ Mendoza is a high injury risk in the NFL

Mendoza leaves his inflexible six-foot-five frame wide open to heavy contact as a passer and as a runner.

He doesn’t like to slide or go out of bounds as a runner, and running is a big part of his game (90 carries in 2025). The NFL isn’t kind to running quarterbacks.

Mendoza will be a dream come true for NFL cornerbacks

On game film ⎯

Mendoza shows:

• Zero ability to move or manipulate defenders with his eyes. Wherever he’s looking, that’s where he’s throwing.
• Takes an “extra moment” to gather himself to perfectly align his body with the trajectory of his throws while staring in the direction he’s going to throw. His passes come out a “tad” late because of this.
• Pats the ball before releasing (another ‘tell’ of when and where he’s throwing).
• Tends to wait until his target is looking at him before he releases (throws with below average-to-average anticipation).

He does everything a quarterback can do to telegraph his throws.

Additional reasons Mendoza will fail in the NFL

• Doesn’t have the mind for it. He’s a rigid, systematic, linear thinker who’s going into a league that requires split-second post-snap situational recognition, flexibility, and adaptability.
• Conservative nature.
• Loses his composure ‘out of structure.’
• Every throw is a fastball.
• Inexperienced throwing intermediate route-level passes (10-19 air yards).
• Can’t read post-snap pass coverage (everything at Indiana was pre-scripted throwing locations).

NFL crystal ball

Mendoza had a 53.3% completion percentage against Purdue and a 40% completion percentage in the second half vs. Miami. These two games provide the best representation of what NFL defenses will throw at Mendoza.

Bottom line

MENDOZA IS NOT IT.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him, visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.