Former NFL Scout’s 2026 NFL Draft QB Board ⎯ Fernando Mendoza QB7

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Grading NFL Draft prospects is a huge responsibility.

It creates expectations, and expectations influence the trajectories of their careers. Grading is extremely important for everyone involved: the NFL teams that may be looking for a second opinion, the fans, and, most of all, the prospects. Unmet expectations are the source of all human disappointment, and unmet expectations are the thing busts are made of.

With that said ⎯

Before we get into the 2026 NFL Draft quarterback (QB) prospects that I’ve graded, it’s best to look back before we look forward.

Why should anybody trust my grading?

I say this humbly as I possibly can say it ⎯

Since jumping back into the evaluation game, I am trending to hit on 30/43 quarterbacks that I’ve evaluated beginning in the 2021 NFL Draft.

• 70% trending hit rate

The method behind my madness

Game film drives my process.

With all of these quarterback prospects listed, I’ve evaluated as many of their college games as possible over two (or more) seasons. Next to each quarterback prospect, the number of total games evaluated during their college careers is also noted. *First Round Mock is the only draft platform that includes all of the game film links for grading transparency and accountability.

How many college games have I studied of these (7) NFL Draft Quarterback Propects over the past two to three seasons?

229 Games

I’ve also written more than one scouting report on each of these quarterbacks listed at different times as a way of “cross-checking” myself as an evaluator, which is an extra safeguard I have built into my process.

What is my goal when evaluating the game film?

To be able to identify and extract the traits, patterns, and tendencies as they relate to the NFL (and it’s all about consistency, which goes back to the importance of watching as much of a quarterback’s full body of work on game film as possible). I’m looking for college skill sets that translate well to the NFL.

*College football is college football, and the NFL is the NFL. There are many differences between the college game and the NFL game (underarmour.com). Even the size of the football used in college football is different than the size of an NFL regulation ball.

I’ll say this ⎯

There are a lot of variables with quarterbacks. I’ve outlined 33 of the variables that are going through my mind at any given time when watching college game film (there are more than these, but this is 33 of the variables):

As a former #NFL Scout, I watch college quarterbacks through what I call, “NFL colored glasses.”

What do I mean by that?

Not every great college QB becomes a great NFL QB.

That’s why some have become busts.

No question, there are more variables that go into projecting college… pic.twitter.com/7q2lPuKEi5

— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) February 22, 2024

In general ⎯

What are the most important things to look for on game film with quarterbacks trying to make the jump from college football to the NFL?

1. Watch their heads when they are holding the ball in the pocket. Are they going through their progressions or not? Does it look like they are actually moving their heads and reading coverage post-snap, and are able to look at two or more of their targets regularly when dropping back? One of the skills NFL quarterbacks need to have is the ability to make two or more reads.
2. Are they getting the ball out of their hand quickly? With the kinds of speed pass-rushing demons screaming off the edges in today’s NFL game, it’s vitally important that college quarterbacks show the ability to get the ball out of their hand in a timely fashion. The NFL range for NFL QBs time to throw in 2025 was between 2.56 seconds and 3.24 seconds per Next Gen Stats.
3. Accurate throws. Watch the throwing locations. Is the quarterback you’re watching able to deliver the ball in a spot that puts the receiver in the best possible position to pick up yardage after the catch?
4. Keeping the ball out of harm’s way is extremely important. This is also referred to as “ball security.” Do they have the ability to keep defenders from touching their passes? I don’t just mean interceptions either. I also mean PBUs (passes broken up). I personally chart PBUs during college quarterback game film study.
5. How well can they adapt to the flow of the game post-snap?

Those are five big ones ⎯

The ability to read defenses, successfully adapt post-snap, keep the ball out of harm’s way, and make quick and accurate throwing decisions are some of the functional skills they need to have.

With that said ⎯

Daniel Kelly’s 2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Board

TIER ONE NFL FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK LEVEL

QB1 Carson Beck

2026 NFL Draft Game Film Value: 1st Round

Height and weight: 6-foot-4, 220 pounds

College: University of Miami

NFL Ceiling: Rams QB Matthew Stafford

NFL Floor: Former NFL QB Tony Romo

2025 QB Stats: 338 of 467 (72.4%) for 3,813 yards, 30 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and he was sacked 18 times

2025 PBUs: 27 in 16 games that I evaluated (1.69 per-game-average)

2025 Pro Football Focus Time to Throw: 2.40 Seconds

Total number of college games of his that I evaluated: 43

2025 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2026/01/carson-beck-2026-nfl-draft-qb1/

2024 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/01/former-nfl-scout-gives-carson-beck-benefit-of-the-doubt/

2023 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2024/05/carson-beck-potential-nfl-franchise-qb/

Summary: I’ve studied every single snap Beck has taken in all 43 college games he’s started, and he’s earned my respect as an evaluator. He has the things the NFL is looking for. He’s got the fastest time to throw in this draft class, and he rebounded this past season to post his third 70%+ completion percentage season of his college career. Beck also has demonstrated the best ability to read coverage in this draft class, and I love his downfield eye discipline and ability to manipulate defenders with his eyes.

Beck’s comeback this past season for the Hurricanes is the most understated story in this draft. His proven ability to quickly and successfully acclimate to a new environment and team, as well as the levels of resilience and leadership he has demonstrated, bode well for his NFL career. I also love how comfy he is in a dirty pocket.

QB2 Drew Allar

2026 NFL Draft Game Film Value: 2nd Round

Height and weight: 6-foot-5, 235 pounds

College: Penn State

2025 QB Stats: 103 of 159 (64.8%) for 1,100 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and he was sacked 6 times

2025 PBUs: 8 in 6 games that I evaluated (1.33 per-game-average)

2025 Pro Football Focus Time to Throw: 2.85 Seconds

Total number of his college games that I evaluated: 34

2025 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/12/drew-allar-could-be-the-steal-of-the-2026-nfl-draft/

2024 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/05/penn-state-qb-drew-allar-looking-like-an-nfl-starter/

2023 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2024/05/drew-allar-and-his-spotty-accuracy/

*Allar suffered a broken left ankle during the 2025 season

Per ESPN on November 24, 2025, “Allar said he’s unsure about the specifics of his timeline to come back to the field to showcase himself for NFL teams. He said he hopes to throw for scouts and teams in some capacity at either the NFL scouting combine or a pro day after that date. Quarterbacks rarely do drills and testing at the combine.”

Summary: Allar is intriquing to me, and I had a 1st round grade on his 2024 film before his “2025 off year.” He combines good size and a big right arm with an extremely high football IQ that was on full display in Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s cutting-edge offensive scheme during the 2024 season.

Beyond Allar’s arm strength, which he showed again on his 2025 film, I liked his poise and his ability to get past his first-read. He made a lot of second and third-read throws.

Allar has everything it takes to become an NFL starter once his ankle is healed.

TIER TWO NFL HIGH CEILING DEVELOPMENTAL QUARTERBACKS

QB3 Cade Klubnik

2026 NFL Draft Game Film Value: 3rd Round

Height and weight: 6-foot-2, 210 pounds

College: Clemson

2025 QB Stats: 257 of 392 (65.6%) for 2,943 yards, 16 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and he was sacked 17 times

2025 PBUs: 19 in 11 games that I evaluated (1.73 per-game-average)

2025 Pro Football Focus Time to Throw: 2.71 Seconds

Total number of his college games that I evaluated: 38

2025 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/12/clemson-qb-cade-klubnik-has-a-chance/

2024 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/05/clemson-qb-cade-klubnik-is-a-loose-cannon/

2023 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2024/06/clemson-qb-cade-klubnik-struggles-to-take-care-of-the-football/

Summary: I’m surprised myself that I’m putting Klubnik this high on my 2026 NFL Draft QB Board, but he earned it on game film.

How?

He brought his passing game more under control. That’s the big reason. He had looked like he was throwing blindfolded on his 2023 and 2024 tape, averaging 3.23 PBUs per game in 2023 and 2.93 PBUs per game in 2024.

This past season, Klubnik spread the ball around, worked the whole field, and had a strong screen game. All things that bode well as a backup at the next level, considering the way the NFL game is offensively scripted. He’s also a high-level competitor, which will also serve him well in his rookie training camp. He’s even got a legit shot at becoming a starter down the road.

I went from not liking Klubnik at all as an NFL prospect to liking him as a projection.

QB4 Jalon Daniels

2026 NFL Draft Game Film Value: 3rd Round

Height and weight: 6-foot-0, 220 pounds

College: Kansas

2025 QB Stats: 198 of 319 (62.1%) for 2,531 yards, 22 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and he was sacked 18 times

2025 PBUs: 16 in 11 games that I evaluated (1.45 per-game-average)

2025 Pro Football Focus Time to Throw: 2.88 Seconds

Total number of his college games that I evaluated: 32

2025 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/12/jalon-daniels-compares-to-former-nfl-qb-rodney-peete/

2024 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/06/kansas-qb-jalon-daniels-bounces-back-with-a-new-concern/

2023 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2024/06/theres-one-big-question-with-qb-jalon-daniels/

2022 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2023/06/kansas-qb-jalon-daniels-grade-drops-to-third-round/

2022: Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2023/06/49ers-scouts-need-to-watch-kansas-qb-jalon-daniels/

Summary: Every time I’ve studied Daniels, he’s reminded me of former NFL QB Rodney Peete, who played in the league for 15 years. Daniels has demonstrated a mature quarterback skill set, the ability to set and re-set the pocket, and has shown he can keep defenses guessing where he’s going with the ball until the last second.

I wasn’t a big fan of his erratic footwork, questionable ability to read defenses at times, and his sporadic bad decisions. His deep accuracy is another thing I’m not thrilled about.

I don’t see Daniels developing into “the guy,” but he’ll make a solid backup who can spot start if the situation calls for it. I love the thought of Daniels going to the 49ers behind QB Brock Purdy under Kyle Shanahan and his system (and have for some time).

QB5 Ty Simpson

2026 NFL Draft Game Film Value: 3rd Round

Height and weight: 6-foot-2, 208 pounds

College: Alabama

2025 QB Stats: 305 of 473 (64.5%) for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and he was sacked 28 times

2025 PBUs: 32 in 15 games that I evaluated (2.13 per-game-average)

2025 Pro Football Focus Time to Throw: 2.95 Seconds

Total number of his college games that I evaluated: 30

2025 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2026/01/alabama-qb-ty-simpson-earns-nfl-developmental-grade/

2022, 2023, and 2024 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/10/ty-simpson-progressed-on-his-2022-2023-and-2024-game-film/

Summary: The scariest thing about Simpson this past season is that he plateaued on his game film. I had a 3rd round grade on him heading into this season, and I walked away from his 2025 game film putting a 3rd round grade on him again.

Simpson has had about as close to an ideal college development situation as a quarterback could ever have. It was a dream situation. He was recruited and coached by legendary Alabama head coach Nick Saban, and he was coached this past season by Kalen DeBoer, who turned Michael Penix Jr. into a 1st round value in the 2024 NFL Draft. Not only that, but he’s been mentored by quarterbacks Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe (both of whom have gone on to the NFL). Simpson got to sit behind both of them and learn. Still, none of the above caused him to be able turn the corner as a prospect in his first full season as Alabama’s starter.

What did Simpson’s game film reveal this past season?

• Tends to hold the ball too long
• Unsettled feet in the pocket
• Below average feel for pressure
• Tends to lock in with receivers from the pocket
• Too inaccurate
• Puts the ball in harm’s way too often

*I really can’t get into how he just throws the ball up for grabs when he’s under too much pressure.

Sure, Simpson can do some nice things off-platform and out of structure, anywhere, but in the pocket. He’s tough, he can pick up some chunks of yardage with his legs, and he’s a competitor, and it’s for those reasons I like him as a backup quarterback candidate.

TIER THREE NFL LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENTAL QUARTERBACKS

QB6 Garrett Nussmeier

2026 NFL Draft Game Film Value: 4th Round

Height and weight: 6-foot-1, 205 pounds

College: LSU

2025 QB Stats: 194 of 288 (67.4%) for 1,927 yards, 12 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and he was sacked 15 times

2025 PBUs: 21 in 9 games that I evaluated (2.33 per-game average)

2025 Pro Football Focus Time to Throw: 2.48 Seconds

Total number of his college games that I evaluated: 28

2025 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/12/lsu-qb-garrett-nussmeier-slides-down-2026-nfl-draft-board/

2024 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/04/garrett-nussmeier-is-a-work-in-progress/

2023 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2024/07/lsu-qb-garrett-nussmeier-receives-first-round-grade/

Summary: Every time I’ve evaluated Nussmeier, I have liked him less as an NFL prospect. He reminds me of a mix between former LSU QBs Joe Burrow and Matt Flynn (30% Burrow and 70% Flynn). I can’t remember evaluating a quarterback who is more of a contrast than Nussmeier. He’s got the raw skillset and time to throw that NFL teams dream of, but his decision making and ball security are a nightmare. I’m also not a fan of what I saw in this video clip.

That “raw skillset and time to throw that NFL teams dream of,” will keep him hanging around for a while. Plus, his dad, Doug Nussmeier, is the offensive coordinator for the Saints.

QB7 Fernando Mendoza

2026 NFL Draft Game Film Value: 4th Round

Height and weight: 6-foot-5, 225 pounds

College: Indiana

2025 QB Stats: 273 of 379 (72.0%) for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and he was sacked 25 times

2025 PBUs: 26 in 13 games that I evaluated (2.0 per-game-average)

2025 Pro Football Focus Time to Throw: 2.67 Seconds

Total number of his college games that I evaluated: 24

2025 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/12/fernando-mendoza-will-fail-with-the-team-that-selects-him-if-he-goes-in-the-first-round/

2024 Game Film Evaluation: https://firstroundmock.com/2025/06/new-indiana-qb-fernando-mendoza-too-inconsistent-at-cal/

Summary: Mendoza is just so limited from an NFL perspective.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.