Rajvir Bal Doesn’t Have a First Round Grade on Fernando Mendoza

Indiana quarterback (QB) Fernando Mendoza has been the man of the year this season in college football. After winning the Heisman Trophy in December, Mendoza has led Indiana to a perfect record and all the way to the National Championship game against Miami.

In the process, Mendoza has become a national phenomenon, and many draft media platforms have gone bananas for him.

But…I want to pump the brakes…

College football is college football, and the NFL is the NFL. No question, Mendoza has thrived at Indiana, but now NFL teams must answer this question…

How do his traits translate to the NFL?

Background

Mendoza was a three-star prospect out of high school and committed to Cal in early 2022 (247Sports). He transferred to Indiana in late 2024.

2025 stats (through the first 15 games):

• 257 completions
• 352 attempts (73.0%)
• 3,349 yards 
• 41 touchdowns
• 6 interceptions

#15 Fernando Mendoza 6-foot-5, 225 pounds
Rajvir Bal’s 2026 NFL Draft Grade: Second-Round (I would select him)
Projected first-round prospect by nflmockdraftdatabase.com as of January 13, 2026

2025 game film evaluated: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Illinois, Iowa, Oregon, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Ohio State (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

The Good

Mendoza is everything you want from an NFL QB between the ears. He processes extremely quickly, understands coverage, and knows where to put the ball. Additionally, he’s generally very precise from 5-15 yards. He often hits his throws quickly and has an extremely high football IQ.

Mendoza is a wonderful leader and person. His post-game interviews indicate that he truly believes in his team and that he’s extremely respected inside the building. 

This combination of smarts, precision, and leadership means that there will be a clear place for him in the NFL. Throughout his career, there’s a good chance he will always have a home as a starter. 

The Bad

Mendoza is a game manager.

That’s not a compliment.

The offense Mendoza has run at Indiana is EXTREMELY structured and RIGID. It’s an offense scheme that minimizes his faults and maximizes his strengths. It reminds me of how Colorado schemed around QB Shedeur Sanders last year.

Indiana’s heavy RPO (run-pass option) offensive system keeps Mendoza from pushing the ball downfield that much. When he does, he showcases that his arm is mediocre at best. He cannot consistently drive the ball downfield, and that greatly limits the potential of an NFL QB.

Mendoza simply has a lack of special arm talent that other elite prospects have possessed.

He also struggles with pocket management. If the play isn’t designed to be a quick hitter, he has trouble sensing pressure and moving away from it.   

Ten adjectives

Cerebral. Efficient. Methodical. Limited. Precise. System-dependent. Disciplined. Unflashy. Reliable. Restrained.

Explaining the grade

What do I mean by “game manager?”

• Quick processing
• Precise accuracy
• Mediocre arm

While Mendoza has a bit more velocity and touch on his passes than your “average game manager,” he also does a worse job diagnosing pressure and managing the pocket.

NFL crystal ball

Raiders

Jets

Rams

Pro Comp: Sam Bradford

Mendoza’s NFL success will largely be “system-dependent.” If he goes somewhere with competent receivers and skilled offensive coaching, he could lead his team to the playoffs. But if he’s drafted into a rough situation where he’s relied on to carry the offense, his limitations will show up quickly.

Rajvir Bal is a high school student from the Virginia area. He grew up a rabid Washington Redskins fan, attending more than 30 games, and has enjoyed the team’s high points and low points throughout his life. He plays varsity football and basketball. Rajvir has taken an interest in the NFL Draft since middle school when his team picked Montez Sweat and Dwayne Haskins in the first round. His favorite NFL player ever flips between Rob Gronkowski and Brett Favre, and his favorite athlete is LeBron James. He has been writing his own scouting reports since 2020, and is excited for the opportunities FirstRoundMock provides.