Fernando Mendoza Will Fail With the Team That Selects him if he goes in the First Round

I gave quarterback Fernando Mendoza a fifth-round grade when I evaluated his 2024 game film.

Did he improve in 2025?

A little.

How does what he showed on game film at Indiana translate to the NFL?

Reading coverage will be a problem

I don’t think Mendoza can read defenses that well post-snap.

What?

Yeah.

Most of the time, it looked like Mendoza’s throwing locations were pre-determined before the ball was snapped.

He’s a one-to two-read quarterback who played in a heavy RPO (run-pass option) offense. Most throws were first read, either naked or off the “play-action motion.” Some were two-read (I counted nine times he got to his third read and two times he got to his fourth read in 13 games).

Mendoza works best from his spot

Most often ⎯

Mendoza throws from the spot where he catches the snap.

He “tried to prove” he could move off his spot and throw, but that mostly looked pre-scripted, and he was “best” throwing short-range in those situations. ESPN reported Oct. 10 that Mendoza “has completed only 16.7% of his passes when on the move.” He does this “jump pass” type of throwing motion on the move, which leaves his body vulnerable and open to heavy contact.

Mendoza isn’t good vs. pass rush pressure

Mendoza is downfield-focused, to a fault.

Pro Football Focus Passing Pressure Completion Percentages:

• Kept clean 76.5%
• Under pressure 51.4%

If the first or second read isn’t there fairly quickly, he’s on the move, or sometimes he just throws the ball away (18 sacks). This is how I believe he covers for his lack of feel for frontside and backside pressure.

Mendoza was overwhelmed by pressure up the middle.

NFL defensive backs dream

• Extra steps before throwing from the pocket
• Hard locks and calibrates his throwing motion with targets for a noticeable extra moment
• Pats the ball before releasing
• Throws with below-average to average anticipation
• 26 passes broken up (2.0 per game average)
• His eyes are easy to read (no ability to manipulate or move defenders was shown)

Mendoza throws an elementary route tree

Mendoza has three routes he heavily depends on:

• Quick short passes outside in both directions
• Inside slants
• Deep passes

It will be a big adjustment for Mendoza to throw a full route tree consistently.

NFL Projection

Mendoza is an elementary passer who has relied on a rigid and systematic process for success. The NFL is faster and much more complex, demanding split-second situational recognition, flexibility, and adaptability.

The NFL is going to be a big jump for Mendoza.

Too big if he goes too early.

#15 Fernando Mendoza 6-foot-5, 225 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2026 NFL Draft Grade: Fourth-Round (I would select him)

Alert: High Injury Risk

Projected by NFL Mock Draft Database to be a First Round prospect as of December 28, 2025

New Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Too Inconsistent at CAL (2024: 11 games evaluated)

2025 game film evaluated: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Illinois, Iowa, Oregon, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Ohio State (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

No. 11 rushing attack

Relatively soft schedule

2025 PFF time to throw: 2.68 seconds (3.38 vs. Ohio State)

2025: 226/316 (71.5%), 2,980 yards, 33 TD, 6 INT (69 carries)

2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Limited. Intense. Tightly-wound. Perfectionist. Calculated. Plays it close to the vest. In command. Competitive. Good pre-snap stature. Rhythm ball control pace. Primarily, shotgun formation. Clapping cadence. Robotic post-snap. Good ball handling. Inconsistent release times. Passes look a tad late with his throwing motion and unsettled feet from the pocket—tight spiral. Strong arm. Throws mostly fastballs. Best short range and deep (21/44 +20 air yards 47.7%). Inexperienced at the intermediate route level. Spreads the ball around. Most comfortable throwing outside. Questionable how well he sees the whole field. Lifts right foot when releasing. Drives throws. Passes can sail or be overthrown. Tough. Poised. Defenses were steadily figuring him out as the season progressed. Clutch vs. Penn State, and on that fourth quarter 3rd and 6 throw (Ohio State). Gets fired up.

Final words

The Mendoza hype is a byproduct of him being on a great team this season.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.