Drew Allar Could be the Steal of the 2026 NFL Draft

Keywords: Could be

This season’s evaluation of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is challenging.

Why?

Allar looked hot in the first two games, faded for the next three, but then looked better again against Northwestern. Of course, that’s the game in which he suffered a season-ending broken left ankle as a senior, which means no more college eligibility.

Now what?

ESPN reported on October 16 that Allar underwent surgery on that broken left ankle and ‘is on track for a full recovery.’

What’s his timeline?

“He [Allar] said he hopes to throw for scouts and teams in some capacity at either the NFL scouting combine or a pro day after that date,” according to a subsequent report from ESPN.

Any other wildcards?

• Below average in protecting his body when he runs
• Confidence
• Trusting receivers
• Footwork when throwing

Allar likes to run the ball. That’s what got him into this mess.

Sometimes he ducks out of bounds or dives forward when he’s running, and there are other times he bulldozes his way through traffic.

What about his confidence?

It wavered, as did his level of trust. This is best captured by his varying time to throw numbers in 2025:

Pro Football Focus (PFF):

• Nevada 2.78 seconds
• Florida International 2.40 seconds
• Villanova 3.02 seconds
• Oregon 2.77 seconds
• UCLA 3.22 seconds
• Northwestern 2.91 seconds

What about his footwork when throwing?

It’s inconsistent.

The more I think about it ⎯

His confidence and footwork are directly tied together. Allar is a rhythm quarterback. He’s elite when he’s in rhythm, and he’s not when he’s not.

As for trusting his receivers, there were occasions when he thought better of passing the ball and took off running instead. There were other times when it looked like he was throwing late. Penn State had the same offensive coordinator (who I love), Andy Kotelnicki. I don’t believe “scheme” was the issue. The receiving core didn’t seem as talented.

I think losing tight end Tyler Warren was a big deal for Allar. Warren was Penn State’s second-leading receiver in 2023 (34 receptions) and their leading receiver in 2024 (104 receptions).

What’s there to love about Allar?

• Arm strength
• Poise
• NFL-level ability to look off his first-read

Allar has a bazooka for a right arm and pushes the ball downfield (6/12 on 20+yard throws that I charted). That’s 50.0%.

He stands tall in the pocket and will fire it in the face of the pass rush without flinching.

This prospect also makes A LOT of second (even third-read) throws. Impressive. This bodes well for the next level.

Is he worth the risk?

⎯ Within my 2024 evaluation of Allar was “making me daydream that I was watching a more athletic Ben Roethlisberger (former Steelers QB, 6-foot-5, 240).”

Then, during the Nevada game, I heard that name come up again as a comp.

This time from CBS Sports.

#15 Drew Allar 6-foot-5, 235 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2026 NFL Draft Grade: Second-Round (I would select him)

(M) Medical Risk

Projected by NFL Mock Draft Database to be a Fourth-Round prospect as of December 16, 2025

Drew Allar and His Spotty Accuracy (2023: 12 games evaluated)

Penn State QB Drew Allar Looking Like an NFL Starter (2024: 16 games evaluated)

2025 game film evaluated: Nevada, Florida International, Villanova, Oregon, UCLA, and Northwestern (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2025: 103/159 (64.8%) for 1,100 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT (36 carries)

Note: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott recovered from a broken right ankle suffered in October 2020 (and made it back by the start of the 2021 season)

2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Field general. Student of the game. Spirited. Tough. Fancy ball handling. Pats the ball. Throwing base flucuates, too narrow or even parallel at times, which affects placement. Depends too much on his arm strength. Can sidestep pressure. Decent decision-making. Pretty accurate on the move. Above-average placement overall. The biggest challenge is keeping him on time with his throws (PFF: 2025 time to throw 2.85 seconds). 8 PBUs in 11 games (1.38 per game). Below-average clutch gene.

Final words

Allar will become an eventual starter in the NFL if he fully recovers physically and mentally from his ankle injury.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.