Arch Manning Clutch Performance vs. No. 49 Mississippi State

It has been dismal for Texas quarterback Arch Manning since the Sam Houston game on Sept. 20.

Conservative.

That’s the word I would use to describe his last three games, and for the first three quarters of this game vs. No. 79 Mississippi State, I’d use the same word.

WATCH TEXAS VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE

That word certainly defined Manning in the first half. He went 12 of 19 for 99 yards with one touchdown and one interception (which his receiver should have caught). Out of that first half yardage total, a big chunk of that was yardage after the catch. It was a short pass to Manning’s right side that was turned into a 60-yard gain.

Things weren’t that much different in the third quarter, and Texas trailed 31-14 headed into the fourth quarter.

That’s when it happened with Manning leading the charge.

What changed?

Manning began playing with a better tempo that reminded me more of what he looked like when filling in last season as the backup. He started throwing with better anticipation and ball placement.

“Better” is the word I would use to describe him in the fourth quarter. It’s the closest I’ve seen him to my pre-season scouting report.

Unfortunately, Manning left the game with a concussion on the first play of overtime.

Overtime?

Yes, Manning threw two touchdown passes, and Texas ended up tying up the game 38-38 by the end of regulation.

NFL traits

But how did Manning look from an NFL Draft perspective?

I was watching for a core set of traits that translate to success for NFL quarterbacks.

What are those?

Quarterbacks who can:

• Make quick and accurate throwing decisions
• Go through their progressions
• Keep the ball out of harm’s way

How did Manning do in this game in those areas?

I won’t exactly call his throws “quick.” Pro Football Focus had his time to throw against Mississippi State at 2.61 seconds. That’s decent, but keep in mind, he threw a lot of short passes.

Most of Manning’s throws were his first or second read, and he didn’t throw with much anticipation. He only threw two passes to a spot before his receiver got there, and both of those were due to the pressure that was in his face.

How did Manning do in terms of ball security?

He had three additional passes broken up (PBUs).

NFL takeaway

How does what Manning did against Mississippi State translate to the NFL?

B

That’s the highest game grade I’ve given Manning so far this season. It’s also the most aggressive he’s been downfield in 2025 with his good natural arm strength. His deep accuracy (+19 air yards) was 2/5 (40.0%), but at least he took a handful of shots and got out of his “comfort zone.”

Manning showed toughness and did a nice job keeping his eyes downfield in the face of pressure. He also showed some improv with the pass rush closing in, and he converted on a couple of critical “got to have it” third downs as the game wore on.

He seemed more confident overall.

What was the biggest concern that weighed down his game grade?

His throwing process is not where it needs to be. There was a “disconnect” between where he was going to go with the ball and getting it to where it needed to be. There was this hesitation that often showed up before he threw the ball from the pocket.

What will I remember most about this game?

Manning’s resilience.

This counts for a lot in my book.

It didn’t look like Texas had a chance at the end of the third quarter, and he was coming off a string of rough recent performances.

Manning showed what he was made of when his back was against the wall.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.