Arch Manning Regresses vs. No. 122 UTEP

University of Texas quarterback Arch Manning looked like he was developing up until this game against No. 122 UTEP (CBS Sports).

Yes, the Longhorns won the game 27-10, but it was Manning’s roughest outing since taking his first collegiate snap in 2023.

What stood out?

First impression ⎯

Methodical.

Too methodical.

The first drive ended in a turnover on downs, but the second drive ended with Manning taking it in himself from two yards out.

Any other early observations?

Yeah.

There were a lot of running plays.

Manning wasn’t throwing the football much.

It felt like his coaches were doing everything they could to take some pressure off of him.

WATCH TEXAS VS. UTEP

Hesitation throwing

He started doing this thing when he would pause for a noticeable extra moment while locking in with his target before releasing.

He was holding the ball too long. Per Pro Football Focus, Manning’s time to throw vs. UTEP (3.52 seconds).

His slowest time to throw of the season.

Even on his nicest pass of the first half, a 22-yard strike, Manning stepped up and up in the pocket before releasing. His throwing mechanics looked correct on this particular pass, but he didn’t throw with any anticipation, which was a trend that continued throughout the game.

The receiver stood there waiting for the pass like he was waiting for a bus.

This hesitation showed up throughout the rest of the half and throughout the remainder of the game.

Then, there was this 4th down play.

It was 4th and 3.

Why didn’t he throw it when he had the chance?

Hot and cold trend continuing?

For the past couple of games, Manning has had small pockets of time in which he has done well.

It was the 4th quarter vs. Ohio State.

It was a five-minute period of time toward the end of the first quarter and beginning of the second quarter vs. San Jose State.

In this contest, it was early in the first quarter.

How did he look the rest of the game?

Manning looked better running than passing (threw for 114 yards and ran for 51 yards).

The second half was worse than the first.

The Longhorns continued running the ball a lot, and Manning threw a cluster of short passes with mixed results.

He also looked even more tentative in the third quarter. It was his worst quarter of football this season.

It felt like the Longhorns’ offense was reduced to running in the second half.

NFL scouting perspective

How does what Manning did against UTEP translate to the NFL?

D

There were a few things I liked from an NFL perspective ⎯

• Kept his eyes downfield
• Good pocket presence evading the pass rush
• Often threw to his second (sometimes even his third progression)
• Mechanics looked right on a couple of throws
• His athleticism

Outside of that, he took some steps back.

Between trying too hard, the hesitation and staring down receivers a handful of times, and putting too much arm into some of his throws, his mechanics were inconsistent (to say it nicely).

…his ball placement followed and suffered as a result.

It looked like Manning and his receivers were on two different sheets of music.

Texas compensated by rushing 55 times for 227 yards.

Some people are wondering if Manning is dealing with an arm or shoulder injury. I can’t see the University of Texas allowing him to play through an injury or the Manning family tolerating that.

So what’s the problem?

After studying every snap the past two seasons and every snap in his first three games this season, this is my best guess:

Manning is feeling too much pressure living up to his last name.

Every throw is under a microscope.

It’s too much.

Manning is overthinking everything.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.