Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles is a Raw NFL Prospect

I was drawn to evaluate Michigan State quarterback (QB) Aidan Chiles when Pro Football Network mocked him to go to the Ravens in the third round of the 2026 NFL Draft.

So I set out on a 12-game study to discover for myself what I thought of him.

Does he have natural talent?

Yes.

But he does not look like a day two talent at this point?

This one is tricky because Chiles produces his fair share of highlights, which might be the cause for the early draft hype that’s surrounding his name.

However, the answers are found by studying his full body of work.

Elephant in the room

Let’s cut to the chase on this one ⎯

Accuracy.

That’s the bottom line for NFL quarterbacks, and Chiles isn’t accurate enough.

Why?

His release time and footwork are too erratic.

He looked best when he managed to get the ball out of his hand on schedule, but that wasn’t the norm. It was the exception. Chiles tends to drift in the pocket and puts himself in a lot of situations where he’s forced to create with mixed results.

59.4%

That was his completion percentage in 2024 (ESPN).

Even when he did complete passes, it’s worth noting that he didn’t always put his receivers in the best position to pick up additional yardage after the catch.

Chiles is best in the short route range (0-9 yards), and he had decent success deep. I charted his +19 air yard throws, and he hit 40% (17/43).

⎯ His accuracy is unpredictable in the intermediate route range (10-19 yards). It’s too hard to sync to receivers running timing routes when he’s back there doing his own thing.

Ball security

The ability for a QB in the NFL to keep the ball out of harm’s way is important, and while Chiles’ pass breakup (PBUs) numbers are good, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is too close for comfort.

• 15 PBUs (1.25 per game average)
• 13 touchdowns to 11 interceptions

When Chiles misses, he really misses, and he made some bad throwing decisions and threw some ugly-looking interceptions.

Yahtzee

I don’t know if you’ve ever played this game before, but it was my favorite game growing up with my Grandma, and it’s my favorite game to this day. The game is a game of chance. It’s a roll of the dice ⎯ literally. You hope for the best, but you never know.

And that’s what it’s like watching Chiles on game film.

#2 Aidan Chiles 6-foot-3, 217 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2025 Summer Grade: Seventh-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

Projected by NFL Mock Draft Database to be a Fifth-Round prospect as of July 1, 2025

2024 game film evaluated: Florida Atlantic, Maryland, Prairie View A&M, Boston College, Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, and Rutgers (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Injury risk: Moderate

Left the game with an injury vs. Indiana

Pro Football Focus 2024 Time to Throw: 3.09 seconds

2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Athletic practice squad prospect with good natural arm strength. High energy. Struggles to settle down. Only flashes times he’s able to put it altogether. Shows leadership by taking ownership of errant passes. Operates in a heavy play-action system. Unconvincing play-action fake. Decent behind the line of scrimmage mobility. Capable, but inconsistent progressions. Inconsistent throwing mechanics. Sometimes bends his left leg more as he throws, and at other times, he will put too much upper body into his passes, causing location issues. Throws with below-average to average anticipation. Can fit passes into tight throwing windows, and tends to put deep passes out in front of receivers. Prefers to work the perimeters in the passing game. Some improv. Best rolling out to his right off platform. Too inconsistent rolling out left. Questionable eyesight. Struggles with the depth perception of pass rushers and defensive backs in coverage. Sacked 30 times in 2024 (ESPN). Prone to fumbling. Has some running upside. Average at protecting his body. Tough. Decent football speed.

What to watch for during the 2025 college football season

1. Does it look like he’s seeing pass rushers and defensive backs?

2. Time to throw?

3. Consistent throwing mechanics from the pocket?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.