Former NFL Scout’s Preseason 2026 NFL Draft QB Board – Some Surprises
It’s that time of year to line up the college quarterback (QB) 2026 NFL Draft prospects on my board. Of course, this board is subject to change. We have to wait and see who stays healthy, who declares, and how everything shakes out to hard-set the names leading up to the big day on April 23, 2026.
Quarterbacks are different.
In the words of a former editor I had, “Quarterbacks are king.”
In the words of my NFL Scouting Mentor, a man with four rings, “If you have a quarterback, you have a chance.”
It’s the game’s most important position.
⎯ Don’t forget about the backup either.
According to Hall of Fame Head Coach Joe Gibbs, “The second most important person on the team is the backup quarterback.”
I consider Gibbs the greatest influence on my life. He’s the only coach in NFL history to win three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks. I grew up watching Gibbs. Studying Gibbs. Revering Gibbs.
Change of approach
With that said, I took my time evaluating these quarterbacks on this board. I already had Georgia QB Carson Beck done because I didn’t know if he was going to declare for the 2025 NFL Draft. Turns out, Beck opted instead to transfer to the University of Miami. As for the other 13 QBs on my pre-season board, I’ve been marinating in as many of their games as possible since the last draft ended.
When I say marinating, I mean marinating.
It normally takes me two-three days to evaluate a full season’s worth of game film, but this time around, evaluating these quarterbacks, I tended to allow the film to soak into my brain and roll around in my thoughts for four to seven days before writing the report.
I kept going over and over the consistent traits, patterns, and tendencies. Each QB evaluation is like putting together a 30,000-piece jigsaw puzzle. There are so many variables. When I begin a QB evaluation and I turn on the tape, it’s like someone takes a box full of puzzle pieces and dumps them all over the floor for me to put together.
Every play is a clue.
Every play is a piece to a prospect’s puzzle.
153 games total studied in 62 days.
That’s like watching nine seasons of your favorite NFL team’s games in a couple of months.
NFL perspective
College football is college football, and the NFL is the NFL.
The NFL is faster and more complex.
I evaluate college game film through what I call “NFL Colored Glasses.”
What does that mean?
I take what I’m watching on college film and ask myself, “How does what I’m watching translate to the NFL?”
I compare the college film I’m watching to the NFL games I’ve watched in my mind’s eye. I’m looking for consistent traits, patterns, and tendencies.
In the words of my scouting mentor, accuracy is the most important trait. I’ve published a list of 33 variables that are rolling around in my head that I’m looking to extract when I’m watching game film.
Why these particular prospects?
My focus at First Round Mock is evaluating the ‘top-rated prospects.’
NFL Mock Draft Database is the source I use to get that information. I believe it’s the best source available to the general public because they pool information from all of the mainstream NFL Draft Media platforms, and they tend to get their intel from their sources within the league.
I have focused on the names of the QB prospects within the range of the top 160 prospects (except for Kansas QB Jalon Daniels, whom I’ve been studying for the past couple of seasons).
Daniel Kelly’s 2026 NFL Draft Preseason QB Board:
TIER ONE
FRANCHISE STARTING QB POTENTIAL
QB1 Arch Manning, University of Texas
First Round Grade
Summary: I’m one of the few who feel Manning will declare for the 2026 NFL Draft.
Why?
Because of what he has put on tape.
Manning is showing rapid development in key areas that translate well to the NFL. Manning, armed with his magical ability to improvise, is poised to win the National Championship and the Heisman Trophy this season.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: His accuracy level on throws when he goes through his progressions.
QB2 Drew Allar, Penn State 📈
First Round Grade
Summary: Allar is another one who’s showing signs of growth in key areas needed to make the successful jump to the NFL. While he’s not a natural passer, he’s working on it, and he showed he was able to bring his right arm more under control. His offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki, had everything to do with that, taking Allar from being ultra-conservative in 2023 to looking like a playmaker in 2024. Allar went from me seeing him as a clumsy big raw talent on his 2023 film to daydreaming that I was watching a more athletic version of former Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger when studying his 2024 film.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: If he can consistently put his deep passes out in front of his receivers.
QB3 Garrett Nussmeier, LSU 📉
Second Round Grade
Summary: Nussmeier looks the part.
However, he slid down on my board in his first full season as LSU’s starter. Yes, he’s well-schooled, and he has the tools it takes to be an NFL franchise QB. I just couldn’t get past the noticeable six-game funk he went into, and I don’t like him in pressure situations.
Nussmeier reminds me of a mix between former LSU QBs Joe Burrow and Matt Flynn.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: Overall consistency.
QB4 Carson Beck, University of Miami 📉
Second Round Grade
Summary: I don’t trust Beck as much as I used to after he plunged into personal darkness that clouded his 2024 game film. He looked distracted. Granted, he started showing real signs he was coming out of in the SEC Championship Game against Texas, which just so happened to be the game he suffered the serious injury to his throwing arm.
There’s no question he has all the tools to be a franchise NFL QB – armed with a quick release and the high-level ability to hold and manipulate defensive backs with his eyes.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: Beck’s level of confidence.
TIER TWO
NFL BACKUPS WITH THE MOST UPSIDE
QB5 Avery Johnson, Kansas State
Second Round Grade
Summary: I’m a front-runner on this one after studying the NFL traits Johnson put on tape in 2024 (only 1.3% of the NFL Draft Community is seeing him as a first-round talent per nflmockdraftdatabase.com).
He’s a resilient and exciting playmaker who loves to attack defenses with his right arm and his legs. His inconsistencies with his release time and throwing mechanics have him sitting outside the first round at this point. What has him this high on my board is that he flashes the ability to do both things.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: He has to stop dead-locking into his targets for a noticeable extra moment before throwing.
QB6 Nico Iamaleava, UCLA
Third Round Grade
Summary: A lot of people are down on Iamaleava after he tried to get more NIL money from Tennessee, and it blew up in his face. Surprisingly, I’m not one of them. He competes hard and shows how important the game is to him on film. Early on last season, he played like he was putting a lot of pressure on himself, but he showed he was settling into his role as the season progressed. He went from looking robotic with happy feet to looking more fluid and settled.
He’s sitting on the fence between projecting as an NFL starter and a backup.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: Consistently showing an equally distributed upper and lower body follow-through when throwing from the pocket.
QB7 Sam Leavitt, ASU
Third Round Grade
Summary: Leavitt’s confidence and strong right arm jump off the tape in ASU’s run-heavy offensive attack. From there, he’s a work in progress who is too hesitant to throw the football. The encouraging thing was that he flashed the ability to get the ball out of his hand on time.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: Better deep-ball accuracy.
TIER THREE
RAW PLAYMAKING OUTLIERS WITH LOW NFL CEILINGS
QB8 LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Fourth Round Grade
Summary: Sellers has the most “potential” out of the remaining quarterbacks on this list. In the land of NFL reality, he’s another one of these raw, glorified option quarterbacks who reminded me WAY TOO MUCH of Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson (who I gave a fifth-round pre-draft grade).
The most interesting thing about his game film is his unpredictable play-making ability. However, I wrote in his evaluation that I like Sellers better as a runner than a passer. That is not a good sign. Sellers is just too raw as a passer, and his footwork is all over the road (as is his downfield accuracy). Not to mention, Sellers’ time to throw in 2024 per Pro Football Focus was 3.30 seconds. The slowest time to throw in the NFL (out of 43 quarterbacks) was Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson at 3.14 seconds (Next Gen Stats).
I’m also concerned about his eyesight.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: His footwork as a passer.
QB9 Jalon Daniels, Kansas 📉
Fifth Round Grade
Summary: Daniels is a resilient prospect who flashes the ability to make big-league throws and then flips and decides to throw it right to a defender. He has a lot of inconsistencies in key areas.
This is the third season I’ve watched tape from, and each season I like him a little bit less.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: If he learns to play within himself and sticks with making efficient throws in the short to intermediate route level (0-19 yards).
QB10 John Mateer, Oklahoma
Fifth Round Grade
Summary: He’s got a strong arm and he’s a fast runner, but that’s where I have to get off this hype train. The more I watched Mateer play on film, the more undisciplined he looked and the less interested I became. He’s a novelty who craved getting out of structure and making highlights against lower-level college competition. What he has put on tape translates poorly to the next level, where quarterbacks with average throwing instincts (like he has) have to depend on timing and footwork to sync with downfield receivers.
Mateer reminds me much more of former UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee than current Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes. Plumlee was a UDFA in the 2024 NFL Draft and has spent time on three different teams’ practice squads. One of those teams (Seahawks) moved him to wide receiver.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: How much he’s playing in structure.
TIER FOUR
LONGSHOTS
QB11 Cade Klubnik, Clemson 📈
Fifth Round Grade
Summary: There is a serious disconnect between the hype Klubik is getting from mainstream NFL Draft Media and what he put on film as an NFL translation.
After two seasons of film study, I can’t warm up to Klubnik. He was a more aggressive downfield thrower in 2024, which is why I moved him up on my board from his previous UDFA grade. Outside of that, his internal clock and footwork are just too inconsistent, and he puts the ball in harm’s way too often.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: A consistent process.
QB12 Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Fifth Round Grade
Summary: Mendoza looks the part at first glance. His best two attributes are his commanding presence and competitiveness. That’s where it ended for me. He was too dependent on ideal throwing conditions from a clean pocket, as he dropped his eyes too easily under pressure. His deep game also left a lot to be desired.
HE’S GOT A WAYS TO GO.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: If he looks more natural as a quarterback.
QB13 Aidan Chiles, Michigan State
Seventh Round Grade
Summary: A prospect who produces his fair share of highlight plays, but his glaring issues are found in his full body of work. The draw is Chiles’ natural arm strength and athleticism, but he’s unpolished when it comes to being a consistent enough passer. My main concern is his eyesight. He struggles with the depth perception of pass rushers and where defensive backs are on the field when he throws. He threw some passes with pass rushers right in his face when he couldn’t follow through, and he doesn’t even see defensive backs at times.
Practice squad type who can run the scout team.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: If he’s throwing ugly-looking interceptions.
QB14 Eli Holstein, PITT
UDFA Grade
Summary: It all comes down to his average accuracy and his below-average ball placement downfield.
The upside is he’s aggressive and he’s one of the most competitive QB prospects I’ve ever evaluated.
Holstein is an ideal practice squad prospect.
Biggest thing I’m watching for in 2025: Better ball security.
Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. Featured in USA Today. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.
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