Penn State QB Drew Allar Looking Like an NFL Starter

The first thing I did before I watched Penn State quarterback (QB) Drew Allar in 2024 was peek at his stats.

I noticed his completion percentage had indeed improved from 59.9% (2023) to 66.5% (2024).

That was promising.

My biggest criticism of Allar in my last evaluation of him was his “spotty accuracy.” I left off giving him a fifth-round grade.

So…

Did his accuracy look better on film in 2024?

Yes.

But, Allar is still not a natural passer.

He’s working at it ⎯

At this point in his development, I project him to be a bottom-tier NFL starter (QBR 16-32).

Wow, that sounds like a big improvement since my last evaluation.

It is.

However, there’s more work to be done.

What’s holding him back?

Allar’s footwork and throwing mechanics are still too inconsistent.

He throws best from a clean pocket when he can set up and step into his throws, which happens about “75% of the time.”

Then there’s the other “25% of the time” he can’t do that for whatever reason, and his “accuracy” becomes a flip of a coin.

Why the big jump on the draft board?

I call it the “Kotelnicki effect.”

Andy Kotelnicki became Penn State’s offensive coordinator last season, and it’s no coincidence that Allar went from looking like a raw prospect with a big right arm to making me daydream that I was watching a more athletic Ben Roethlisberger (former Steelers QB, 6-foot-5, 240).

Did I say that out loud?

Yeah.

I see Kotelnicki as the most cutting-edge offensive mind in football after watching his outside-the-box playcalling last season…and Allar kept up with all his concepts (good sign).

Allar went from looking stale in 2023 to consistently CREATING AND IMPROVISING in 2024.

Another big area of growth ⎯

Allar went from looking like “one of the least explosive quarterbacks I’ve studied” in 2023 to being one of the better 20+ air yard throwers I’ve seen in terms of completions (24/43, 55.8%).

Granted, he tended to put a little too much air under his deep ball, and his receivers had to sometimes make some noticeable adjustments.

Under Kotelnicki, Allar’s throwing motion and location became far more controlled. Fewer airballs. Plus, under Kotelnicki, Allar ran an “NFL-type balanced offense,” with a 42.63 passing play percentage. In 2024, Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia ran a 43.71 pass play percentage offense.

Steelers

Given the quarterback depth chart in Pittsburgh (with or without Aaron Rodgers), I believe the Steelers’ scouting department will be paying close attention to this quarterback who plays in the stadium that’s 2 hours and 48 minutes away.

From my “daydreaming comp,” to the fact that the Steelers also run a 51.69% pass percentage offense…

This makes too much sense.

#15 Drew Allar 6-foot-5, 238 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2025 Spring Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 79.5% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 11, 2025 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Drew Allar and His Spotty Accuracy (2023: 13 games evaluated)

2024 game film evaluated: West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland, Oregon, SMU, Boise State, and Notre Dame (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Injury risk: Moderate

2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Prototype modern-day athletic pocket quarterback. Commanding and demanding presence. Steady tempo. Decent ball-handling skills. Above average going through his progressions, but tends to revert to more comfortable one-read lock-ins. Tends to pat the ball pre-delivery. Throws with average-to-above-average anticipation. Inconsistent accuracy from a dirty pocket and off-platform. Big league arm strength. Sometimes torques his upper body when throwing, which causes a loss of placement control in that scenario. Occasional bad throwing decisions. Surprises with some off-balance touch throws. Occasionally gets swallowed by the pass rush. Slightly above average running speed. Lumbering tough runner who regularly picks up chunks of needed yardage. Shows visible excitement and frustration at times. Ball security 20 PBUs/16 games (1.25 average).

What to watch for during the 2025 college football season

1. How does his footwork look when he throws?

2. Putting the deep ball out in front of receivers so they can run through it?

3. Does he look better on his 2025 film, or does he plateau or decline?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.