Keep an Eye on Transfer QB John Mateer

Every year, a quarterback (QB) shoots up NFL draft boards from a day-three projection to a first-round pick. Several of these QBs are transfers, including notable examples like Joe Burrow (#1 overall by the Bengals in 2020) and Cam Ward (#1 overall by the Titans in 2025).

This begs the question: Does the 2026 NFL Draft have any potential big risers?

My pick: Transfer Oklahoma (from Washington State) QB John Mateer.

Let’s get into why:

Background

Mateer was a 4-star prospect out of high school and committed to Washington State in 2022. After the 2024 season, he transferred to Oklahoma.

Mateer’s Stats:

2024 (first season of considerable playing time):

• 12 games played 
• 224 completions
• 347 attempts (64.6%)
• 3,139 yards 
• 29 touchdowns
• 7 interceptions
• 178 carries for 826 yards (4.6 yards per carry average) – 15 rushing TDs

Mateer ranks in the 17th percentile for height and 40th percentile for weight (nfldraftbuzz.com)

#10 (his jersey number at Washington State) John Mateer 6-foot-1, 219 pounds 
Rajvir Bal’s Summer 2026 NFL Draft Grade: First-Round (I would select him)
Projected by 0.0% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 21, 2025 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2024 game film reviewed: New Mexico, Washington, and Texas Tech (click to view games watched to form this evaluation).

Flashes NFL Arm Talent

Mateer possesses the ability to make high-level NFL throws. Specifically, he demonstrates the skill to thread the ball into tight windows. He also has a strong grasp of timing and rhythm with his receivers.

This prospect understands anticipation and velocity and is looking to push the ball downfield.

Dual-Threat

Mateer showcases impressive athletic ability as he can dominate in the air, as well as on the ground. When his receivers are covered, he’s shown that he can tuck the ball and take off. He’s a talented runner with a knack for ripping off big plays with his legs.

Being able to impact the game both as a passer and a runner is a factor that could raise his ceiling exponentially.

‘It Factor’

This prospect has the intangible ‘it-factor’ on tape. His play reminds me of Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow at LSU, and Buccaneers’ QB Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma. Mateer seems to possess that presence and unshakable confidence that isn’t present on film with every QB.

Having the ‘it factor’ means that no moment is too big, and that he can elevate the talent around him.

It’s one of the most difficult traits to define, but also one of the most sought-after when evaluating quarterbacks.

Can Play In and Out of Structure

Another desirable trait from college QBs when talking about the transition to the NFL is being able to play both in and out of structure.

Mateer showcases that ability, with accurate throws on the run while still being able to stand in the pocket and deliver. The ability to go off-script and win from the pocket will be instrumental at the next level.

What Are The Drawbacks?

• Inconsistent mechanics
• Forces throws
• Spotty ball placement
• Holds onto the ball too long (at times)

Explaining my grade

Mateer has all the tools I look for in a first-round prospect: live arm, fearless mentality, dual-threat ability, and throwing tools that translate to the NFL. He still needs fine-tuning in some areas, but this is a player who warrants a first-round valuation.

Why do I say that?

The areas I am currently seeing as ‘drawbacks’ are a work in progress. I believe his new coaching staff, a better offensive line than he had at Washington State, and just a better overall talent level surrounding him will make him a Heisman contender.

Ten Adjectives

Confident. Athletic. Explosive. Raw. Fearless. Dynamic. Inconsistent. Electric. Tough. Underrated.

2024 Game Film Summary

Mateer’s traits warrant a long look.

Rajvir Bal is a high school student from the Virginia area. He grew up a rabid Washington Redskins fan, attending more than 30 games, and has enjoyed the team’s high points and low points throughout his life. He plays varsity football and basketball. Rajvir has taken an interest in the NFL Draft since middle school when his team picked Montez Sweat and Dwayne Haskins in the first round. His favorite NFL player ever flips between Rob Gronkowski and Brett Favre, and his favorite athlete is LeBron James. He has been writing his own scouting reports since 2020, and is excited for the opportunities FirstRoundMock provides.