Arch Manning Developing Quickly Says Former NFL Scout

Manning.

Just the mention of the last name evokes reverence in the football world.

Archie Manning played quarterback (QB) in the NFL for 15 seasons (1971-1984). Then, there was quarterback Peyton Manning, who played in the NFL for 17 seasons (1998-2015), won two Super Bowls, and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2021. Peyton’s younger brother, Eli, then followed in the family’s footprints on the gridiron, playing quarterback for 16 years (2004-2019) and winning another two Super Bowls.

Now, there’s Arch Manning.

He’s the next in line to wear the name on the back of a jersey.

“The most famous backup quarterback, maybe in the world,” the television commentator said during the Texas-Colorado State game last season.

Well said…

But, not anymore.

He has emerged from the shadow of former Texas starter Quinn Ewers, who has moved on to the NFL. Manning is now QB1 for the Longhorns.

2024 summary

There were ‘wow’ moments and moments when Manning looked like he had a ways to go by NFL standards.

However, it was eye-opening to see how much better he looked in his fourth game (his first start vs. UL-Monroe) than in his first action of the season against Colorado State.

Manning went from working half the field and making a bunch of elementary one-read and pre-determined throws to “attempting” to go through “NFL-type” multiple reads and progressions with mixed accuracy results. He also worked the entire field on a “few” plays.

He was growing up right in front of my eyes.

What else is ‘special’ about him?

Manning has some things about him that can’t be taught.

He brings a fast-paced tempo to an offense, and he’s tough as nails (maybe a little too tough, I wish he’d learn to slide more instead of running like a running back).

His innate ability to improvise is also magical.

NFL projection

There are just some ‘non-negotiable’ things that quarterbacks need to be able to do at the next level:

• Getting the ball out of their hand quickly
• The ability to make multiple reads and go through progressions
• Accuracy
• Ideal downfield ball placement that puts receivers in a position to pick up yardage after the catch
• Explosive plays
• Good ball security

Manning showed me just enough in these areas to be able to make this calculated projection.

Key words: just enough.

Per Pro Football Focus, his time to throw was 2.74 seconds in 2024 (not great and not terrible).

I’m convinced that his rapid rate of development + his natural skill set + a full season at the helm = will do the trick.

No question, he has a lot of work to do when it comes to reading defensive pass coverages, working (and seeing) the whole field, and he needs to become less “tunnel-visioned,” while developing a better “feel” for the pass rush.

#16 Arch Manning 6-foot-4, 225 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2025 Spring Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 79.5% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 6, 2025 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2023 game film evaluated: Texas Tech

2024 game film evaluated: Colorado State, UTSA, UL-Monroe, Mississippi State, Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Note: Did not throw vs. Texas A&M, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State

Injury risk: High

2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Mobile and well-schooled prospect with a strong right arm who is showing signs of critical development. Quick study. Fast and urgent tempo. Fancy ball handling. Subject to fumbling. Good on and off-platform thrower (Most comfortable rolling out to his right). He’s at his best when he can lock and throw, relying on his trained mechanics to accurately aim and deliver. Can fit the ball into various throwing windows from different arm angles. Tendency to lock in with receivers and make ill-advised throws under pressure. Good overall placement (YAC). Tough, strong, and competitive runner. PBUs 7/6 throwing games (1.16 average). Deep ball 20+ air yards (53.8%). Tries too hard at times. Can get fired up.

What to watch for during the 2025 college football season

1. Is he consistently accurate when he throws after going through his progressions?

2. Tunnel-vision?

3. Can he feel the pass rush?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.