Rajvir Bal ‘Not Seeing It’ With Abdul Carter

First Round Mock NFL Draft Analyst Rajvir Bal isn’t buying into the hype surrounding Penn State defender Abdul Carter.

Last summer I evaluated Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter. At the time, I recall seeing him as a first-round projection.

I didn’t see it.

I put a third-round grade on him and stated I would remove him from my board completely.

Since then, Carter’s hype has only increased, and he’s now a projected top-five pick.

I knew it was time to circle back and see if I still felt the same.

Background

Abdul Carter was a 4-star prospect out of high school and committed to Penn State in July of 2021 (247Sports.com)

He made the switch from linebacker to defensive line this off-season.

Carter’s stats:

2023: 

• 13 games, 48 tackles (25 solo), 6 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 5 passes defended, 1 interception and 1 forced fumble 

2024: 

• 16 games, 68 tackles (43 solo), 24 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, 4 passes defended, 0 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles

Carter ranks in the 32nd percentile for his height and the 29th percentile for his weight at defensive line per NFLDraftBuzz.com.

#11 Abdul Carter 6-foot-3, 259 pounds 
Rajvir Bal’s 2025 NFL Draft Grade: Second-Round (I wouldn’t select him)
Projected by 95.4% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of February 22, 2024 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Penn State Edge Abdul Carter Has Glaring Red Flags (2023: 5 games evaluated)

2024 game film reviewed: Ohio State, Illinois, West Virginia, Notre Dame (click to view games watched to form this evaluation) 

Class A Athlete

Carter is a very high-end athlete. His sprint speed, short area burst, and incredible first step. His first step allows him to quickly beat skilled offensive tackles right at the snap of the ball. If he’s successful in the NFL, it will be because of his uber athleticism. His bend, burst, and speed made me just go WOW on some plays. He likely is one of the most athletic players in this draft class. By getting past offensive tackles so quickly, he causes quarterbacks to rush their throws. Don’t get it twisted: college football quarterbacks are scared of Carter.

Getting By on Athleticism

This is a huge issue.

If Carter didn’t get by offensive tackles with his elite first step, he was lost. He fails to use his hands effectively and struggles to get off the block once the offensive line gets their hands on him. No matter the completion level, he could not shed blocks once he was locked up. He has next to no high-end pass-rush moves. His athleticism was to his detriment sometimes playing like a chicken with his head cut off, flailing and recklessly running at 100% around the field. There are pros and cons to that. Getting by on his athleticism and first step may allow him to look elite in college, but it won’t fly in the pros.

Efforts got better in 2024

Last year, my biggest problem with Carter’s film was his hesitancy and lack of ‘dawg’. It’s safe to say that’s not a chief concern this year. There were still subpar efforts on some plays, but it improved overall.

Off-Field “Concerns”

Abdul Carter has been charged with two misdemeanors in two years.

Don’t overlook that.

2024: Penn State DE Abdul Carter faces misdemeanor assault charge

2023: Penn State’s Abdul Carter charged with marijuana possession

Ten Adjectives

Explosive. Athletic. Inconsistent. Hesitant. Reckless. Raw. Disruptive. Unrefined. Streaky. Questionable.

NFL Crystal Ball

New York Giants

Cleveland Browns

Carolina Panthers

Pro Comp: Rashan Gary

Gary was selected in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft (No. 12). He has gone on to produce 39 (and counting sacks).

Final thoughts

The “traits” are first-round level, but the question marks lead me to keep Carter out of the opening round in terms of “value.”

I can not recommend him.

Sorry, but I’m still not seeing it.

Rajvir Bal is a high school student from the Virginia area. He grew up a rabid Washington Redskins fan, attending more than 30 games, and has enjoyed the team’s high points and low points throughout his life. He plays varsity football and basketball. Rajvir has taken an interest in the NFL Draft since middle school when his team picked Montez Sweat and Dwayne Haskins in the first round. His favorite NFL player ever flips between Rob Gronkowski and Brett Favre, and his favorite athlete is LeBron James. He has been writing his own scouting reports since 2020, and is excited for the opportunities FirstRoundMock provides.