Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel is a Premiere NFL Backup

First Round Mock’s NFL Draft Analyst Rajvir Bal doesn’t see Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel as a starting quarterback (QB) at the next level.

What’s wrong with Oregon Ducks QB Dillon Gabriel?

That question kept crossing my mind throughout this college football season.

I mean Gabriel was a Heisman Trophy finalist and QB1 for one of the best teams…but then he’s being projected by less than 1% of other draft platforms (nflmockdraftdatabase.com).

Something isn’t adding up.

I couldn’t find much out there that had Gabriel above a second or early third-round projection.

So what’s wrong with his tape?

Background

Dillon Gabriel was a 3-star prospect out of high school and a 4-star transfer prospect (247Sports). He’s since played for UCF, Oklahoma, and Oregon

That’s a lot of teams.

All told ⎯he played six seasons of college football. He played so much of it, he now holds the record for the most starts at quarterback in FBS history (63).

2024 Statistics

• 326 completions
• 447 attempts (72.9%)
• 3,857 yards 
• 30 touchdowns
• Six interceptions

#8 Dillon Gabriel 5-foot-11, 200 pounds 
Rajvir Bal’s 2025 NFL Draft Grade: Third-Round (I would select him)
Projected by 0.2% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of January 29, 2024 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2024 game film reviewed: Oregon State, Ohio State, Washington, and Purdue (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Strengths

World-class field general. As a lefty, he locates his receivers with precision, and he recorded a fairly impressive 2.78-second to throw this season (PFF). This allows him to control games and take them at his own pace. He’s a very smart QB. He took 21 sacks this season as a result of how he navigated the pocket and got the ball out of his hand. Smooth release. This prospect makes things happen on his own, which is a very valuable trait for a QB. Unlike other quarterbacks I’ve evaluated this year (Shedeur Sanders), Gabriel felt like he had a huge impact on games that Oregon won. And just to be clear, they won A LOT this season (13-1). That winning pedigree is highly desirable in the NFL. On the intermediate throws (11-19 yards), he had stellar accuracy. He fits his throws into tight throwing windows, and makes some stellar “NFL throws”. He had good timing with his receivers and wasn’t afraid to tuck it and run when needed.

Weaknesses

There’s one big question with Gabriel:

If Panthers’ QB Bryce Young, (clearly more talented), has struggled to succeed in the NFL for the first season ⎯season and a half at 5-foot-10, why should we expect Dillon Gabriel (measured at 5-foot-10 4/8 at the 2025 Reese’s Senior Bowl) to make it work?

I kept thinking about his height throughout this evaluation, and I am still simply not able to overlook it. Seems like I’ve found the problem that the media has. With this one, I’m singing in the choir. His size will serve as a huge disadvantage going forward. However, my gripes don’t stop there. I’ve watched years of NFL football, and he has some of the worst deep ball placement I’ve seen. There’s also a tendency to force throws that simply aren’t there. This habit wasn’t too detrimental in college ball, but it’ll affect him a lot more at the next level. He has lackluster arm talent ON FILM IN ACTUAL GAMES and favored the check-down too often. The Oregon offense was hand-catered to him and likely allowed him to thrive a lot more than if he were in a more traditional pro-style offense.

Ten Adjectives

Precise. Quick. Smart. Experienced. Smooth. Undersized. Inconsistent. Weak. Resilient. Reliant.

NFL Crystal Ball

Miami Dolphins

Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Commanders

Pro Comp: Nick Mullens

Mullens was an undrafted free agent (2017) who has bounced around the league while throwing about the same number of interceptions as touchdowns (34 TD, 31 INT).

Final Thoughts

“The second most important person on the team is the backup quarterback.”

– 3 time Super Bowl Champion Head Coach Joe Gibbs

Rajvir Bal is a high school student from the Virginia area. He grew up a rabid Washington Redskins fan, attending more than 30 games, and has enjoyed the team’s high points and low points throughout his life. He plays varsity football and basketball. Rajvir has taken an interest in the NFL Draft since middle school when his team picked Montez Sweat and Dwayne Haskins in the first round. His favorite NFL player ever flips between Rob Gronkowski and Brett Favre, and his favorite athlete is LeBron James. He has been writing his own scouting reports since 2020, and is excited for the opportunities FirstRoundMock provides.