Jaxson Dart is the Next Gardner Minshew

Ole Miss quarterback (QB) Jaxson Dart came on down the stretch of the 2024 season, so much so, that he projects as a borderline starter in the NFL.

Borderline, is the keyword.

He had a sweet deep passing game in 2024 and he is a capable runner who periodically can pick up nice chunks of yardage on the ground.

There is just something about Dart I can’t warm up to.

It’s his inconsistencies.

There’s no question he’s got talent. However, he gives off this pervasive and strong vibe of being unorganized and undisciplined that I can’t get past.

Part of the reason I do two seasons of film study is not only to gain a better understanding of a prospect’s full body of work but also to cross-check myself as an evaluator.

How did Dart look in 2024?

There are many things I look for when projecting college quarterbacks to the NFL. Some of the basics I look for are quarterbacks with pocket awareness and the ability for them to go through their progressions. I also look for quarterbacks who can make quick and well-placed throwing decisions, while keeping the ball out of harm’s way.

Dart was inconsistent in all of these areas.

I didn’t like Dart when he was under pressure in the pocket and I did not like his pocket awareness. He seemed most comfortable making generic one-read throws, and he tended to lock in with his receivers at the intermediate route level (11-19 yards). There were only a handful of times he moved off his first read. To his defense, sometimes he stood in the pocket and moved his head around, making a second, or even a third read throw before releasing, but those throws were the exception, not his standard. Additionally, he didn’t throw with much anticipation. I counted 10 passes he threw to a spot before his receiver made his break on the route he was running. He tended to throw as his receivers were making their break or after. There were numerous times his receiver was just standing there waiting for the ball to arrive.

The thing I liked most about Dart in 2024 was how aggressively he stretched the field.

No. 2

Dart will rip it up in the preseason against backups and vanilla coverage. He can also come off the bench and provide a spark. A team may even flirt with him as their starter, but it will not last. His aforementioned weaknesses will send him back to the bench.

Most of the play-scripting offensively in the NFL is at the short-to-intermediate route level (0-19 yards) and intermediate throws are the weakest part of Dart’s game.

#2 Jaxson Dart 6-foot-2, 225 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2025 NFL Draft Grade: Third-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

Projected by 5.5% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of January 14, 2025 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart is Missing Something (2023: 13 games evaluated)

2024 game film evaluated: Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, Georgia Southern, Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi State, and Duke (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

NFL comp: QB Gardner Minshew

2024 stats: 276/398 (69.3%), 4,279 yards, 29 TD, 6 INT, 28 sacks

2025 NFL Draft Scouting Report

An eccentric mobile quarterback with decent accuracy and above-average arm strength. Highly Competitive. Slower process. Leads with an inconsistent tempo. Good ball handling. Sees the whole field. Spreads the ball around. Tends to pat the ball pre-delivery. Relies more upon his upper body pushing throws downfield. His misses tend to sail high or be overthrown. Below average escape. Tends to eat sacks. Spreads the ball around. Lots of pre-determined throws. Not afraid to let it rip into man coverage. Picks apart zone coverage. Good throwing instincts. Prefers larger throwing windows. A knack for big plays. Throws some ill-advised passes as he’s getting hit. Subpar ball security. PBUs (32 in 13 games 2.46 avg). Deep +20 yards 35/77 (45.5%). Competitive, but below average protecting his body as a runner.

Final words

Dart leaves me feeling unsettled when I watch him play.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.