Dillon Gabriel is Not Bo Nix

Oregon quarterback (QB) Dillon Gabriel is efficient and he’s a model of consistency.

In 2023, after stops at UCF and Oklahoma, Gabriel headed to Oregon for his sixth college season, which ended with him starting more games than any other QB in FBS history (63). Ironically, he broke the record of former Ducks’ QB Bo Nix (61) who I had a pre-draft 2024 first-round grade on (and he went in the first round to the Denver Broncos).

Do I see a similar trajectory for Gabriel?

No, not based on what Gabriel has put on tape ⎯not only in these 13 games, but also considering the 12 games I studied when played at Oklahoma in 2023.

Gabriel vs. Nix

Let’s get into this since this is going to be the “argument” to push Gabriel up the board.

Despite coming out of the same offense and having similar experience levels and mobility, there are striking differences between the two. For starters, Nix (6-foot-2) is two inches taller. Gabriel is slower in his process, whereas Nix led Oregon’s offense with a quicker tempo and made faster throwing decisions. Pro Football Focus confirms. Gabriel had a 2.78-second time to throw in 2024 and Nix was at 2.44 seconds in 2023. The faster quarterbacks can get the ball out of their hand in the NFL, the better.

In terms of the numbers between Gabriel and Nix, Gabriel didn’t look as ‘in sync’ with his receivers as Nix did. Again, the numbers back up that statement. Gabriel finished 2024 with a 72.9% completion percentage versus Nix at 77.4% in 2023. When it came to ball security, Nix also had an edge. Gabriel had six interceptions this season ⎯Nix had three in 2023. When it came to pass breakups (PBUs) that I charted, Gabriel had 26 in 13 games (2.0 avg.), and Nix had 17 in 13 games (1.31 avg.).

Faster decision-making, better accuracy, and better ball security make all the difference in the NFL and spell the difference between starters and backups.

What did Gabriel look like on film in 2024?

Essentially, the same as he looked at Oklahoma in 2023.

Gabriel is calm, cool, and calculated, to a fault. He leads with a methodical and consistent tempo. Gabriel would make a great drummer in a band. Reading coverages is not a problem, and he spreads the ball around and all over the field. Compounding those issues is the fact Gabriel sometimes hard freezes before throwing. He just does not throw with much anticipation at the intermediate route level (11-19 yards).

Additionally, Gabriel tends to ‘pat the ball,’ just before he throws, which gives corners even more of a clue when and where he’s throwing.

NFL projection

Gabriel fits best behind an established starter.

I like him, I’m not just not quite as excited about him this time around while on a brighter stage at Oregon.

#8 Dillon Gabriel 6-foot-0, 200 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2025 NFL Draft Grade: Fourth-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 0.3% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of January 22, 2024 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Oregon Transfer QB Dillon Gabriel is a Competitive Playmaker (2023: 12 games evaluated)

2024 game film evaluated: Idaho, Boise State, Oregon State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, Washington, Penn State, and Ohio State Rose Bowl (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Good fit: Rams, 49ers and Seahawks

2024 stats: 326/447 (72.9%) for 3,857 yards, 30 TD, 6 INT and 21 sacks

2025 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Competitive mobile prospect with above-average accuracy. High football IQ. Commanding presence. Poised under pressure. Comfortable. Polished mechanics. Solid throwing form. Slightly better than average arm strength. Excels moving and resetting the pocket. Tight compact delivery. Decent throwing instincts. Patient and disciplined in the pocket. Eyes downfield. Tendency to stare down receivers. Subject to getting the ball batted down at the line of scrimmage. Solid ball placement at all three route levels. Misses tend to be too high or overthrown. Good completion percentage 20+ yards charted 20/33 (60.6%). Excels vs. zone. Tough and willing runner with above-average speed. Takes what defenses give him.

Final words

Gabriel will be a career backup and a game manager.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.