Luther Burden III Runs Route of Least Resistance

I finished watching the eleventh game that Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III played last season, and I couldn’t deny my thoughts or feelings. Burden has the raw physical skills that warrant a first-round grade, but I wasn’t convinced.

Burden left me with nagging concerns I couldn’t shake.

Something wasn’t right. It wasn’t adding up in my mind. There were inconsistencies I couldn’t get past.

Being an evaluator is like being a private investigator. While the other draft platforms have already anointed Burden as the top receiver prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft, I couldn’t get there with him, not based on what Burden himself put on tape.

I was concerned that Burden mostly lined up in the slot position pre-snap (team’s third receiver). I was also concerned Burden:

• Didn’t run his routes hard if he wasn’t the intended receiver
• He didn’t work back to his quarterback when he was in trouble
• Played at different intensity levels
• Sometimes he was difficult to stop after catches and sometimes he wasn’t
• Didn’t put up much of a fight sometimes with defensive backs for the ball

Finally, I put my finger on it. What do all of these things have in common?

Inconsistent competitiveness

Catch rate

The single most important characteristic of a wide receiver is catching the football. Burden does show good, but not great hands. In other words, he dropped a few he should have caught, and he showed an average catch radius (the ability for the receiver to make passes that come in too high or too low). He did show good ball-tracking skills (the ability to find the football in the air) and focus going through traffic.

Let’s look at the numbers.

2022 catch rate: 45 receptions on 71 targets (63.3%)

2023 catch rate: 86 receptions on 122 targets (70.4%)

His production and catch rate spiked when he was moved to the slot position before the 2023 season, and he had more ‘space’ to work against lower-level competition (opposition’s nickelback).

This concerns me about the ‘idea’ of him being a No. 1 or No. 2 NFL receiver

Now for the good stuff

When Burden is ‘on’ he’s a holy terror.

He is a jack-of-all-trades difference-maker who can do everything from taking a handoff on a jet sweep to being a threat at all three route levels (short, intermediate, and deep).

Burden has the natural ability to take off like a shot and change direction on a dime, which are his two best attributes. This gives him the special ability to create needed throwing windows.

This prospect can also make things happen in space after catches at times, which carries over to returning punts (2023: 7 returns for 60 yards).

#3 Luther Burden III 5-foot-11, 208 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2024 Summer Grade: Second-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

Projected by 91.3% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of August 12, 2024 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2023 game film evaluated: Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Kansas State, LSU, South Carolina, Florida, South Dakota, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Ohio State (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Alert: I am concerned about him matching up against NFL-level competition

Alert: Hiding at slot to avoid weaknesses being exposed

Note: Chose Missouri over Alabama and Georgia

2025 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Athletic inconsistent prospect with good long-range north-south football playing speed. Underachiever. Mostly targeted short-to-intermediate (0-19 yards). Best intermediate range. Targeted a lot with short bubble screens. While he’s capable of making the first man miss afterward, had inconsistent YAC. Fast natural acceleration. Adept at achieving initial route leverage. Knows how to set up corners with counter steps. Able to make quick and sudden changes of direction at breakpoints. Finds soft spots in zone coverage while maintaining focus in a crowd. Struggled against physical press man contested coverage. Route running at the intermediate level can become sloppy. Can overrun routes and create space for corners to make a play on the ball. Didn’t catch it deep half the time (7/14). Draws extra coverage as a decoy. Solid run blocker.

What to watch for during the 2024 college football season

1. Consistent?

2. Competitiveness?

3. How does he look on contested passes?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.