Donovan Smith is the Next Donovan Smith

Houston quarterback (QB) Donovan Smith has popped onto the 2025 NFL Draft radar, thanks to CBS Sports stepping up and putting a first-round grade on him.

At first glance, Smith indeed does seem to have what it takes.

Even television commentators mentioned his name and the names of former NFL QBs Daunte Culpepper, Vince Young, and even Cam Newton in the same sentence during the ten games of Smith I studied in 2023.

However, before we get too carried away with the comps…

Smith’s game film reveals inconsistencies that cannot and should not be ignored.

There’s also that little nagging ‘level of competition’ to consider when projecting him. Smith’s team, the Cougars, play in the Big 12 and lost both games last season to ranked teams (No. 8 Texas and No. 23 Oklahoma State).

First impression

The matchup against Texas was the first game I saw Smith play in and he took the Longhorns down to the wire.

That’s what sucked me in.

Smith was on point attempting to pull off the upset and he showed zero backdown against the Longhorns.

I loved that.

From there

Two large problems cast a shadow over the rest of the game film study, his average downfield ball placement and ball security issues ⎯both deal killers in the NFL.

Both shortcomings revolved around the same thing ⎯Smith’s broken internal clock and inconsistent footwork.

The timing between Smith and his receivers was an issue throughout the season.

There were plays when his footwork was perfect and his passes were on point, but then there were consistently all these other times, it wasn’t. He would get undisciplined in the pocket and take unneeded little steps that screwed everything up.

To compound the problem, sometimes he hurried his throws and then at other times he held the ball way too long.

I tallied 19 passes broken up (PBUs) by defenders in 10 games (1.9 per game average). Smith additionally tossed 13 interceptions last season, which tied him for the fourth most in the nation.

Competitive

This is one of Smith’s traits I liked the most.

He never gave up.

This trait was apparent in that Texas game that they lost 31-24, and in the West Virginia (last-second Hail Mary win 41-39) and Baylor (25-24 overtime win). Houston took Rice to double overtime but lost 43-41.

Where does that leave Smith?

With important developmental work to do in 2024 under new Houston head coach, Willie Fritz.

Smith’s head coach last season, Dana Holgorsen has an accomplished resume of working with quarterbacks Graham Harrell, Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, and Will Grier. However, Holgorsen failed to fix Smith.

That’s not a good sign.

No doubt, Smith has the shell of a franchise QB, but he has the ceiling of being a career backup at this point of his development.

#1 Donovan Smith 6-foot-5, 241 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2024 Summer Grade: Fourth-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

Projected by 1.4% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 25, 2024 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Game film reviewed (2023): Texas, UTSA, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas State, Rice, TCU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2025 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Prototype size, arm strength, and athleticism with underdeveloped footwork passing. Operates out of shotgun formation. Good ball-handling skills. Tough. Poised. Focused. Downfield minded. Spreads the ball around (five receivers with 20+ catches last season per ESPN.com). Inconsistent progressions but did show the eye maturity to look off defenders and make split-second throwing decisions in other directions. Navigates pocket well. Decent accuracy rolling out left or right. Monetary lapses of judgment. Not YAC-friendly. Deep ball accuracy charted 15/35 (42.8%). Tendency to overthrow or underthrow deep and draw pass interference calls. A physical runner. Doesn’t slide much. Isn’t typically going to run away from defenses (1-15 yard range). The offense bogs down for long stretches when he gets out of rhythm. The film doesn’t match his attributes.

What to watch for during the 2024 college football season

1. Consistent time to throw?

2. Downfield ball placement?

3. Number of PBUs and Interceptions?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.