Former NFL Scout ‘100% Chance’ Caleb Williams is a Bust

I am pushing my chips up on the table with Caleb Williams.

There is a 100% chance that the USC quarterback (QB) is a bust in the 2024 NFL Draft.

It’s only the second time I’ve ever moved a prospect up to a certain bust rate pre-draft. The first time was in the 2023 NFL Draft with QB Will Levis.

I put a fourth-round league grade on Williams because that was the value of his college game film as it relates to the NFL. However, after Williams decided not to throw at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, I completely removed him from my draft board.

Now, I have taken the final step on Draft Day Eve.

Williams’ character red flags

As they say in scouting, “The game is won or lost from the neck up.”

Outside of the number of documented character concerns outlined in my Jan. 10 scouting report on Williams, all he has done is add to my list this off-season.

• His dad trying to find a way around the rookie wage scale (The Athletic via ClutchPoints)
• His refusal to go through medical testing and measurements at the NFL Combine (CBS).

What’s the big deal?

He hasn’t taken a snap in the NFL and his dad is already trying to find a way around the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement?

That’s the biggest red flag I’ve ever seen.

His refusal to go through medical testing and measurements was reportedly believed to be a first according to CBS.

The real fun begins once the ink dries on his rookie deal.

Williams will be an unpredictable management nightmare for an NFL organization based on his two-year trail of concerning documented conduct. I also believe Williams poses the biggest historical threat to the infrastructure of the league that’s ever existed.

Williams underdeveloped as a QB

There is a misconception out there that I only think Williams will be a bust because of the ‘character’ aspect of my evaluation.

That’s incorrect.

He doesn’t have what it takes to be successful as a QB in the NFL based on his college game film. Williams is underdeveloped in the finer points of the position as it relates to the NFL.

That will cause him to fail.

What are the issues?

Williams craves getting out of structure and he’s going into a league of structured play calling This got worse in 2023 compared to 2022. Williams constantly was ‘doing his own thing.’ In the process, he consistently was missing open underneath receivers while hunting for the big play.

Good luck.

If you want to know how well that works ask Broncos’ QB Zach Wilson (my comp for Williams) who thrived getting out of structure at BYU. Wilson was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Jets. Pre-draft, I had Wilson as a third-round value on game film and said that he would be a ‘sure-fire bust’.

Quarterbacks are like a drummer in a band and the entire offense (especially receivers) depends on them for timing.

Timing will be an issue in the NFL because Williams:

• Leads the offense with an inconsistent rhythm and tempo
• Had a slow time to throw (3.21 seconds PFF)
• Demonstrates inconsistent footwork before throwing

The NFL is different than college ball where receivers run until they get open and QBs have the time to manipulate lower levels of competition. That’s not how it works in the NFL. The NFL is built on strict synchronized timing routes between QBs and receivers. These are routes that depend on a quarterback’s footwork. That’s going to be another problem for Williams who prefers to dance around before releasing while not relying on traditional three, five, and seven-step dropbacks in the pocket.

Expect ball placement and ball security (pass breakups and interceptions) to be a real issue for Williams going forward.

Williams also tends to run recklessly with the football making him a high injury risk in the NFL.

Projection

That is where the consensus of draft media missed on Williams.

They couldn’t separate William’s ‘raw traits’ from what’s required to be a successful NFL quarterback, which is because all they focused on were his highlights and they likely didn’t focus on his full body of work over the past two seasons.

Hopefully, an NFL team will not make the same mistake for everyone’s sake involved (most of all his).

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.