Oregon Quarterback Bo Nix Isn’t a First-Round Talent

Oregon quarterback (QB) Bo Nix seems to be trending up draft boards into the first round of the 2024 NFL draft.

However, Nix is not a first-round pick with his lack of leadership and inability to be at the helm of an NFL complex offense.

He was a highly regarded prospect coming into the college football rankings as a 4-star recruit by both ESPN and 247Sports.

Nix committed to play football at the University of Auburn where his career there was inconsistent and stagnant before transferring to Oregon.

In his 3-year career at Auburn, he displayed poor accuracy with a 59.5% completion percentage that must not be forgotten during the evaluation process.

2023 Review:

In 2023 (pending the bowl game), Nix has displayed an outstanding season statistically in SOME categories. Here are some of the stats that are not being discussed which are red flags when evaluating quarterbacks.

Completion % on throws of 20+ yards: 52.3%

Average depth of target: 6.7 yards

YAC (Yards After Catch) for QBs: No. 1

SOS (Strength of Schedule) No. 62

He lacks progression skills and feels more comfortable checking down or throwing slips where his wide receivers have to contribute to the workload.

Overview: Bo Nix

6-foot-2, 217 pounds

40 Time: 4.75 (nfldraftbuzz.com)

2022 Stats: 294/409 (71.9%) 3,593 yards (8.8 avg) 29 TDs and 7 INTs

Level of Competition: Medium

Colton Edwards Grade: Third-Round

2022 Film Evaluated: Georgia, UCLA, Utah & Washington State

2023 Film Evaluated: Utah & Washington

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report:

A prototypical build at 6-foot-2, 217 pounds. Combines his size with arm talent, positioning himself as an intriguing draft prospect for some. Nix excels in the RPO (Run-Pass-Option) style of offense due to his pocket mobility, consistently evading the pass rush. He can extend plays under duress, making off-schedule plays when things break down within the pocket. He displays versatility in his release, changing arm angles to throw around defenders while maintaining velocity. He’s best with accuracy in the short to intermediate throws. Nix has a good awareness of where he can capitalize on scrambling lanes while consistently keeping a downfield passing mentality. His agility in the pocket enables him to sidestep pressure, reset, and deliver downfield if needed.

Weaknesses: Nix has developed after transferring from Auburn to Oregon, but inconsistencies still exist. His footwork can become “happy feet” when under pressure, resulting in erratic throws. He needs refinement in his processing skills. This Ducks’ QB can get to his primary read, but his hesitancy during receiver breaks and the lack of scanning the full field can lead to missed opportunities. This also happens to deep routes, where despite having the arm strength, he often hesitates which has resulted in turnovers in his career and a low competition percentage in deep ball targets. Lacks LEADERSHIP.

Summary:

Nix brings the physical traits that will intrigue NFL scouts due to his arm talent and creation capacity. The biggest concern is the transition from the current scheme in Oregon to a more complex offense within the NFL. As we know, Oregon’s offense relies a lot on RPOs, screens, check-downs, and the occasional go-ball against a certain coverage. This means he consistently depends on sideline cues before snaps which makes me raise the question about his ability to helm and lead a complex NFL offense independently. This also means he doesn’t have a lot of experience in a straight and consistent drop-back in the pocket style of offense. Finally, his on-field IQ needs polishing, struggles with progression, and lacks eye discipline and poise. Those keys need to be developed.

Who will he remind us of:

2010 third-round selection QB Colt McCoy who played for 5 NFL teams in 12 seasons.

Colton just graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Sports Science at the United States Sports Academy. He has previous coaching experience as a former offense and defensive line coach at a local high school. While performing those duties, he also worked at PFF( Pro Football Focus) for a brief moment of time. He currently develops scouting reports here at firstroundmock.com. His aspirations are to become an NFL Scout/GM in the future.