Oregon QB Bo Nix Puts Up First-Round Game Film

When I studied the 2022 game film of Oregon quarterback (QB) Bo Nix (11/13 games) I graded him as a third to fifth-round NFL prospect in the following two articles.

However, after studying all 13 of his games in 2023, he answered many of the lingering questions I had from his 2022 film.

I’ve now studied Nix in 24/26 of his Oregon starts (all links to these games are embedded in the articles).

His days at Auburn (before Oregon), are summarized as “Inconsistent.”

Improvements

The big ones are ball security and accuracy.

2022: 7 interceptions and 24 passes disrupted in 11 games charted (2.18 avg).

2023: 3 interceptions and 17 passes disrupted in 13 games charted (1.31 avg).

The main reason on film – – Nix was far less hesitant throwing in 2023 vs. 2022. A stat flashed during the Pac-12 Championship game on Dec. 1 Nix had a 2.5-second average time to release on the season. That number hypothetically would represent the No. 4 quickest release currently in the NFL per Next Gen Stats (behind Tua Tagovailoa at 2.38, Mac Jones at 2.46, and Trevor Lawrence at 2.49).

This has helped him avoid sacks:

2022: 5 sacks

2023: 5 sacks

Nix completed 71.9% of his passes in 2022 but improved to 77.2%(before the Fiesta Bowl).

Elite traits

Nix repeatedly showed he could bail out of the pocket under pressure and make accurate throws on the move.

This was his best characteristic.

With much of the offensive focus in the NFL being working the short-to-intermediate route range, this trait will serve him well.

I also liked how in tune Nix was with his receivers. Nix was like a conductor of a symphony the way he and his receivers moved together.

Like having another coach on the field

Nix has started 60 FBS games (most in history) and he is the only QB in FBS history to account for 55+ touchdowns (passing and rushing) at two different schools.

No doubt, he’s seen a lot of football (turns 24 on Feb. 25). He’s adapted to different environments and he’s had two different offensive coordinators at Oregon (Kenny Dillingham and Will Stein).

A television announcer on Nix in the CAL game, “He’s just got such an uncanny ability to process what’s happening, how it’s happening, it’s really hard to trick him.

Nix has shown steady improvement in passer rating (espn.com); in 2019 (125.0), 2020 (123.9), 2021 (130.0), 2022 (165.7), and to date in 2023 (186.2).

NFL comparable?

QB Kirk Cousins. Being compared to Cousins is a good and a bad thing. Cousins has won one playoff game (78-70-2) in 12 seasons.

That’s the future I see for Nix.

Why?

Nix vs. top-25 teams:

2022: 3-3

2023: 3-2

I don’t like his deep game 6/20 (tendency to overthrow) and I didn’t like how his arm bogged down inside the 20. Oregon ranked No. 40 (ncaa.com) in red zone efficiency. He threw 25 passing touchdowns on 67 red zone trips in 2023.

Up until the Pac-12 Championship Game against Washington, I was concerned about him in pressure situations. Despite the loss, he battled back with two second-half passing touchdowns, including responding with one of those after falling behind 34-24 with 2:44 to go. Had I not seen him do that, there’s no way I could have put a first-round grade on him.

#10 Bo Nix 6-foot-2, 217 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s 2024 NFL Draft Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 42.8% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of December 7, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Game film reviewed (2023): Portland State, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Colorado, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Utah, CAL, USC, ASU, Oregon State, and Washington PAC-12 CCG (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Good fit: Minnesota Vikings

Ceiling: Bottom-tier NFL starter (ranking 17-32)

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Well-schooled pro-style prospect with good arm strength. All business. Stonefaced. Lacks “It Factor.” High football IQ. Smooth technician in the pocket. Polished mechanics. Mostly in shotgun formation, but can go under center. Quick tempo. Processes the game quickly. Tends to lock in with receivers pre-delivery. Can make off-platform throws. Comfortable throwing intermediate breakpoint routes. Tendency to tense up at times and steer the ball, which causes inaccuracy intermediate to deep. Moderate running threat who can get out of trouble and pick up chunks of yardage. Takes decent care of his body often sliding and running out of bounds.

Final words

Nix can start as a rookie.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.