CHARLOTTE, NC - OCTOBER 28: Caelen Carson #1 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons reacts after dropping an interception during a football game against the Florida State Seminoles at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Winston-Salem, North Carolina on Oct 28, 2023. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Caelen Carson: All or Nothing

November 16, 2023 | Daniel Kelly | Articles

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BLACKSBURG, VA – OCTOBER 14: Wake Forest Demon Deacons Defensive Back Caelen Carson (1) attempts to defend Virginia Tech Hokies Wide Receiver Tucker Holloway (11) during a college football game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Virginia Tech Hokies on October 14, 2023, at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, VA. (Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Wake Forest cornerback (CB) Caelen Carson has been a name that’s been mocked into the opening round by a few draft publications.

Walter Football, Pro Football Network, CBS, and Draftwire have all put a first-round grade on Carson.

I went back and pulled four games from his 2022 game film, and I’m not seeing it.

Carson wasn’t aggressive enough and he was more of a ‘bend and don’t break’ corner.

That’s not a formula for success in the NFL.

Pass coverage

Carson tends to give up some big cushions and throwing windows in coverage. While he came up and played in press-man coverage (in close to the receiver pre-snap), more often he lined up in off-man (lining up with several yards between him and the receiver pre-snap).

The result was he gave up a lot of catches in this block of game film study and was only able to secure tackles ‘after-the-fact.’

Dependability is huge for cornerbacks and I’m not seeing Carson as a prospect who can be counted on.

Occasionally, he would play a lot more aggressively and even broke up a few passes, but watching his film was literally like watching two different prospects. One was lackadaisical and the other seemed like he was playing defense.

This is what Wake Forest corner #1 Caelen Carson is capable of when he decides to play defense (2022 vs. Louisville) pic.twitter.com/Bwwj2ZAWVl
— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) November 16, 2023

Run support

This confirmed my suspicions. Carson was extremely reluctant most of the time on run plays. It was so bad that against Louisville and Missouri, he literally gave up on touchdown runs and noticeably pulled up during the runs.

Once in a blue moon he gives a shoulder and does a force out or comes in low and takes out a ball carrier’s legs, but more often he’s running away from it and wants nothing to do with run support.

Wake Forest corner #1 Caelen Carson clearly sees this is a run but he continues to back off instead of flowing toward the back on this touchdown (Missouri 2022). pic.twitter.com/3uljAPR6iO
— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) November 16, 2023

Want

There is no substitute for want. It’s the thing that separates the greats from the mediocre. It’s what moves the meter and wins games.

There’s more to this than finding ‘raw traits,’ it’s about identifying prospects who have elite traits, but also have a strong want.

That’s not Carson.

Building a championship culture is about acquiring guys who want it. It wasn’t exciting watching Carson on film. Even though he flashed ability, I don’t see him making a real difference in the NFL. It doesn’t feel like football is that important to him.

That’s what I walked away thinking after watching these games.

This is embarrassing how Wake Forest corner #1 Caelen Carson QUITS on this touchdown run vs. Louisville (2022). pic.twitter.com/buXJH7jW6m
— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) November 16, 2023

#1 (2022 film) Caelen Carson 6-foot-0, 195 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Fall 2023 Grade: Fifth-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

Projected by 9.4% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of November 16, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Game film reviewed (2022): North Carolina, Louisville, Missouri, and Duke (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2022 stats: 21 tackles (17 solo), 7 passes defended, 0 Interceptions

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Squatty muscular reluctant corner with long arms and one-gear speed. Played mostly in off and press-man coverage. Has a physical edge to him when it comes to receivers. Looks flat-footed and a little stiff in his back peddle and when turning. Can carry pure straight-line routes and maintain inside route leverage. Average technique overall. Tends to give up cushions. Methodical. Doesn’t play with much urgency. Best when playing up tighter on receivers. Flashes the ability to break up passes when he turns it on. Lacks burst. Receivers caught most of what was thrown in his direction (especially on comeback routes). Wants next to nothing to do with run support. Can flat-out give up on running plays.

What to watch for during the 2023 season

1. Giving up catches with too much cushion?

2. Does he play like football is important to him?

3. Number of interceptions?

4. Does he care about stopping the run?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.