NFL Teams Need to Watch Caleb Williams vs. No. 21 Notre Dame

Any NFL team considering selecting USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams needs to watch the game against Notre Dame (GAME CAN BE SEEN BY CLICKING HERE). In short, Williams looked overwhelmed and this is my question to every NFL owner, general manager, and scout:

If Williams didn’t look the part in this game against the No. 21 ranked college team, how’s he going to look against the Eagles, 49ers, or Bills?

What’s the logical answer?

This isn’t to take away anything from what Williams has accomplished at the college level, but projecting talent to the NFL is a whole other ball game. At this point, there are some very real concerns that this game against the Fighting Irish only further exposed. Concerns that have carried over from his 2022 game film (that I evaluated every snap of).

Against Notre Dame Williams’ Stats: 23-of-37, 199 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions

Successful NFL QBs need to go through progressions and get the ball out of their hand quickly. They need to do so before the pass rush gets them and for the sake of timing patterns. Downfield ball placement is paramount. It’s the ability to put the ball where receivers can run through the catch and pick up additional yardage). Another critical component is ball security. This means keeping defenders from getting a hand on passes or intercepting them. All while doing it against high-level competition.

Against Notre Dame when it comes to these things, Williams’ grade: F

Tendency to hold the ball too long

Merriam’s Dictionary defines the word ‘tendency’ as: proneness to a particular kind of thought or action.

With that in place – – Williams has repeatedly shown on his 2022 game film, this season and especially against Notre Dame this is a very real problem.

The average time to throw for NFL QBs this season ranges from 2.37 seconds (Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa) to 3.1 seconds (Browns’ Deshaun Watson) according to NEXT GEN STATS.

That’s not too long. Count to three. NFL QBs must process what they are seeing, make a quick decision, and unload.

Against Notre Dame, Williams held the ball too long 11 times. It rarely worked out. More often it didn’t. He ended up getting sacked four times in this game.

Inconsistent going through progressions

NFL cornerbacks read the receivers’ moves and the eyes of QBs. Savvy veteran corners prey on those who ‘lock in’ with their receivers and telegraph their throws. The key is for NFL QBs to often go through their reads and progressions and then throw as opposed to giving away where they are going with the ball.

Williams locked in with his receivers 11 times in this game.

Downfield placement and ball security

Against the Fighting Irish, Williams completed 62.2% of his passes (second-lowest completion percentage this season to date). He looked out of rhythm. There was no success deep and it was a mixed bag of results at the intermediate route level.

It was worse when it came to ball security.

Williams threw a season-high three interceptions in this game. He had three additional passes that were disrupted by Notre Dame defenders.

Not enough short passes?

This is an ongoing study I’ve been doing this season – – and it’s been revealing. The only games that Williams has looked great in this season are when USC Head Coach Lincoln Riley has installed 60%+ short passes into the game plan. It’s only when Riley has kept him on a short leash and not given him time to overthink it, has he looked the part.

Now, his three worst performances of 2023 have come against ASU (32% short passes), Arizona (28% short passes), and now Notre Dame (35% short passes).

Scouting summary

It’s time to slow the roll on the ‘generational’ nonsense and look at Williams for what he is – – a naturally athletically gifted QB with raw arm strength who is underdeveloped when it comes to an NFL projection. The best thing he did in this game was run out of bounds and slide most of the time when he ran.

This game was a big setback in his path to the draft.

The biggest concern was how uncomfortable he looked. He didn’t look like ‘Superman’ that’s for damn sure.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.