Did Caleb Williams 2024 NFL Draft Stock Drop Losing to Utah?

For the second straight week, USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams and his team lost to top-25 ranked teams (lost to No. 21 Notre Dame the game prior).

They dropped this one 34-32 to Utah.

WATCH USC OFFENSE VS. UTAH DEFENSE BY CLICKING HERE.

It’s interesting because after giving Williams a second-round grade based on his 2022 game film (which I evaluated every snap), I resolved to see how he looked from mid-October to mid-November when the Trojans were scheduled to face highly-ranked competition before putting a final pre-draft grade on him.

Sure, he beat up on all the low-ranked or unranked opponents, but anybody can beat up on their baby brother. I was waiting to see this stretch of schedule that included No. 14 Utah, a team he lost to twice last season.

Williams went 24-of-36 for 256 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.

He did run one touchdown in late with under two minutes to go (which was great to see the will to win) and that score put them up 32-31 after a failed two-point throw. However, Utah ended up kicking the game-winning field goal.

How will this loss affect his stock in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft?

People are starting to talk

We’ve had the ‘Caleb Williams generational talk’ pushed in our faces so much by the national mainstream narrative that most everyone has started to simply repeat it – – but that may be changing.

Watching Williams drop his second straight to higher-ranked competition not only probably knocked Williams out of consideration to repeat as the Heisman Trophy winner but also likely knocked USC out of playoff contention.

It additionally has people rethinking Williams. On a First Round Mock Poll run after the Utah loss, 75% of voters expressed that they believe his draft stock is dropping.

Does Williams project to the NFL as a ‘system QB?’

The more I study this QB (I have watched every one of his games last year and this year), the more I am becoming convinced that USC Head Coach Lincoln Riley has a lot more to do with Williams ‘success’ than anyone is talking about.

I began really looking at this during his opponents in 2023 and here’s what I’ve found. His best completion percentages have come when Riley has installed between 44% and 62% short passes into the game plan.

Check this out

-San Jose State (60% of Williams passes were short-range with a 72% completion percentage).

-Nevada (61% of Williams passes were short-range with a 75% completion percentage).

-Stanford (62% of Williams passes were short-range with a 90.5% completion percentage.)

-ASU (32% of Williams passes were short-range with a 64.5% completion percentage).

-Colorado (60% of Williams passes were short-range with a 75% completion percentage).

-Arizona (28% of Williams passes were short-range with a 56% completion percentage).

-Notre Dame (35% of Williams passes were short-range 62.2% completion percentage)

Utah (44% of Williams passes were short-range with a 70.6% completion percentage)

What’s the takeaway?

The shorter leash he’s kept on from an offensive game-planning standpoint and the less opportunity he’s given to overthink things, the better. At this point, he appears to project into an offensive system built on a quick-tempo short-passing game with strictly designed passes intermediate to deep.

Williams missing open receivers?

I’m starting to notice another trend this season. It’s something I’ve been eyeballing more than anything, but he does seem to miss open receivers at times.

It happened again against Utah.

Scouting summary

In this game against Utah Williams held the ball too long another 10 times, locked in with his receivers five times, and experienced two more disrupted passes by defenders. These are trends that have carried over from last season and into this season – – trends that do not project well to success in the NFL.

To his defense, he did complete three out of four deep passes and he played a much better game overall against Utah than Notre Dame, but it wasn’t good enough. The level of competition does factor into his final grade. If Williams can’t beat higher-ranked college competition, how will he be able to turn around a struggling franchise against an even higher level of competition in the NFL?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Find him on Twitter @firstroundmock.