Caleb Williams, USC, Hammer No. 131 Ranked Nevada

Someone had to put USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams’ latest conquest over into perspective (USC vs. Nevada 66-14 game film here). The rest of the draft media is like a runaway train with this one.

All the glitz and glamour of his statistics, 18-of-24 (75%) for 319 yards and 5 touchdowns. We might as well just crumple up the rest of the schedule and send in the card to the commissioner.

I mean look at this pass, it’s silly.

Hold up.

• After beating up on No. 90 ranked San Jose State last week, now Williams and USC (No. 6) beat up No. 131 ranked Nevada (cbssports.com).
• 11 of his 18 completions against Nevada were short-range passes.

Okay, now that I’ve breathed some sanity back into the Williams’ narrative, let’s see how this latest game translates to success in the NFL, where it’s imperative not to hold the ball too long, not to lock in with receivers and downfield ball placement is king.

I understand it may seem like nitpicking, but when mainstream draft media is projecting someone to perhaps go to the worst team in the NFL, these things become even more important to be able to do.

Holding the ball too long?

When Williams makes quick decisions with the ball, he looks the part. It’s the eight times in this game that I charted when he held the ball too long that are concerning to me. One of these times against Nevada led to a fumble in the pocket he recovered and another time he ran when the pocket broke down, but even if it’s 6/24 times on throws, it still represents 25% of the time.

Why’s that worth looking at?

It was 28% of the time last week against San Jose State.

Granted, against Nevada it turned into one nice touchdown and a couple of other nice throws, but the problem that I noticed last week on film as well, he tends to have an open receiver he’s either not seeing or choosing not to throw to in these situations early in the plays.

In the NFL, where the average pocket time is between 2.0-2.9 seconds last season, that’s going to be an issue. It’s something he showed as well when I evaluated every Williams snap in 2022. In fact, it was one of my biggest criticisms when I put Williams in the second-round.

Locking in with receivers

This is something college quarterbacks can get away with, but it doesn’t work well at the next level.

In fact, locking in with receivers in the NFL is like an early Christmas present for pro corners because it gives them extra time to make a play on the ball.

Six times on non-short-range passes, Williams locked in with his receivers against Nevada.

Did Williams show improvement against Nevada?

For the second straight week, his downfield ball placement has shown improvement over last season, as has his ball security while mostly working the short-to-intermediate route levels. Against Nevada, only one pass was incidentally defended when it hit a Nevada corner in the back on a longer pass down the right sideline.

It also strikes me that he had only three carries on the ground for 42 yards against Nevada.

Scouting conclusion

The real tests come mid-October to mid-November when Williams faces ranked opponents. I like the improvements this season in terms of ball placement, ball security, and that he’s running seemingly less and taking better care of himself when he does. The concern continues with his tendency to revert and hold the ball too long. Williams has this thing where he tries to manufacture big plays instead of just letting the opportunities present themselves. I have to wait to adjust his grade (if I adjust his grade) until he actually plays somebody. These past two games remind me back when I was 18 and my brother was 3 and I crushed him on Madden.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.