Caleb Williams Regressed Against No. 87 Ranked ASU

For the first three games this season against No. 90 San Jose State, No. 131 Nevada, and No. 93 Stanford USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams he had shown improved NFL readiness more than on his 2022 game film.

Then the game against Arizona State University happened.

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That got me right back to where I was on Williams before the season began, which was a second-round grade.

There’s a big difference between great college QBs and great NFL QBs, which is why so many great college QBs have become NFL busts. I have developed six boxes great college QBs must check off for me to give them a first-round grade:

1. Professionalism (how they carry themselves on and off the field).

2. Going through progressions (seen by their heads moving around scanning the field and going through their reads prior to throwing the football).

3. Quick release time (the average release time in the NFL is between 2.0-2.9 seconds).

4. Good downfield ball placement (putting the ball in the receiver’s hands in an ideal location downfield so they can continue running through the catch and then picking up yardage).

5. Downfield ball security (keeping defenders from getting hand(s) on the football when it’s in the air)

6. Doing it against high-level competition (level of competition does play a role in the draft evaluation process).

Overall, I have question marks next to all six boxes for Williams since I took issue with the message he painted on his nails last season against Utah. However, against ASU, I had issues with boxes two through six.

Progressions – Box #2

Going through progressions is a big deal for NFL QBs as they often have to make multiple reads on any given throw given the complexity of pass coverages at that level.

Against the Sun Devils, Williams still is showing inconsistency in this department as I charted him locking in five times on deeper-level throws.

Locking in with receivers in the NFL is a recipe for interceptions since it gives defensive backs more time to react.

Quick release time – Box #3

It looks like USC Head Coach Lincoln Riley has gotten the ball out of Williams’ hands faster this season forcing him to make quicker decisions. However, that changed against ASU.

-San Jose State (60% of Williams passes were short-range).

-Nevada (61% of Williams passes were short-range).

-Stanford (62% of Williams passes were short-range.)

-ASU (32% of Williams passes were short-range).

Even the television announcer in the ASU game spoke openly, “This is the least sharp we’ve seen him [Williams] this year.”

Williams held it too long once when rolling left and he almost got intercepted and another time he held it too long again and got sacked (and fumbled), but USC recovered.

Riley had fewer short passes built into this game plan and just like last season, it gave Williams more time to take matters into his own hands and things didn’t go nearly as well.

Ball Placement and Ball Security – Box #4 and Box #5

Williams completed 72.0% of his passes against San Jose State, 75.0% against Nevada, 90.5% against Stanford, and 64.5% against ASU.

He was noticeably “off” against the Sun Devils. He had a couple of overthrows in the intermediate-to-deeper route levels. Another time he rolled right, and his pass got disrupted on a 4th down throw.

Williams didn’t throw any interceptions in this game, but he had three pass breakups (PBUs) by ASU defenders.

Doing it against high-level competition – Box #6

While the rest of the NFL world seems to be on board with “tanking for Williams,” I am focused on the game film and how it translates to what’s been proven to succeed at the next level.

He hasn’t played highly ranked competition yet and doesn’t until mid-October to mid-November.

Scouting conclusion

I feel like the improvements we’ve seen from Williams this season are a by-product of Riley keeping him from being exposed more with a high dosage of short-pass plays and playing a creampuff schedule has also helped.

The other issue is against ASU, Williams reverted to the reckless running style he showed last season. This makes him a high risk for injury. He lowered his shoulder into defenders and didn’t slide. He got tackled awkwardly on another run and was lead-blocking aggressively on another play.

I am starting to get the impression Williams needs to be kept on a very short leash to have a chance at success in the NFL.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. Find him on Twitter @firstroundmock.