Former NFL Scout Puts Caleb Williams’ Opener Into Perspective

While the rest of the free world is ready to anoint USC quarterback Caleb Williams (QB) as the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, I’m going to dare to put his latest performance into perspective.

No. 6 USC vs. No. 90 San Jose State (cbssports.com).

In baseball terms that’s like the Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners’ Triple-A Affiliate) going to Yankee Stadium and taking on the boys in pinstripes for the day.

Prior to the game, the Trojans were 31-point favorites.

Of course, USC won the game 56-28.

So, is Williams really as good as he looked yesterday going 18-of-25 (72%) for 278 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions?

No question, the one play was incredible when he fumbled the snap, picked it up, and heaved that 76-yard touchdown as it looked like something straight out of a comic book.

However, to answer that question the next point needs to be considered.

Level of competition

In scouting, there are many pieces to the same puzzle that need to be taken into account when grading. The level of competition is one of them.

This is especially true in these lopsided college matchups.

When a prospect does well, like Williams did against San Jose State, we need to keep in mind what team it was against.

Nothing against San Jose State, but we really will not get a great idea of NFL valuation for Williams until mid-October to mid-November when USC is scheduled against ranked opponents. That’s what I’m waiting to see.

Heading into the season

Pre-season, I evaluated every snap that Williams took in 2022 and gave him a second-round grade. That was because, beyond the Houdini moments, there are certain things I look for in QBs that are predictive in making the successful transition from college to the NFL game.

– Going through progressions (see his head moving around going through his reads and not just throwing to the first read).

– Quick release (the average release time in the NFL for QBs is 2.0-2.9 seconds).

– Downfield ball placement (different than completion percentage – the ability to put the football in the ideal location through the air giving receivers the best opportunity to pick up additional yardage after the catch).

– Ball security (does the QB keep his passes out of harm’s way in terms of interceptions and disrupted passes by defenders).

My biggest criticisms of Williams from his 2022 game film:

1. Tendency to hold the ball too long

2. Downfield ball placement + ball security (14 games: 5 interceptions, and 35 passes defended). His footwork in the pocket was inconsistent, leading to downfield placement and security issues.

3. Injury risk (because he ran far too physically incurring a lot of full-on contact, which increases the chance of injury).

Did he show improvement against San Jose State?

Yes, but out of 25 attempts, Williams held the ball too long in the pocket seven times (28%). None of those times resulted in a big offensive play either. His throwing mechanics, ball placement, and ball security were dramatically better. He also took better care of himself on every carry, except one down by the goal line in the third quarter when he ran head-first into defenders.

Williams was inconsistent going through his progressions in this one as well – – which is a must at the NFL level.

He mostly worked the short-to-intermediate levels, his slant routes were on point and he took two deep shots (1/2).

Scouting conclusion

Williams’ movements looked crisper and he looked more decisive (for the most part) and I really again, liked his ball placement much better. I’m really concerned about this tendency to periodically regress in the pocket and hold the ball too long as everything melts down around him. He needs to be more like Panthers’ QB Bryce Young using his gifted athletic ability out of necessity, not to put on a show. I spotted three plays in this one he had obvious open targets he didn’t throw to for whatever reason. This will be imperative at the NFL level because if he does go to a team with a losing record, they probably won’t have a great offensive line.

And remember, it was against San Jose State.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, contributes at Yardbarker, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.