Is Oregon QB Bo Nix the Next Kirk Cousins?

There is a lot of hype surrounding Oregon quarterback (QB) Bo Nix heading into the 2023 college football season.

It’s almost like the inconsistency at Auburn never happened – – almost.

Despite a three-year 59.5% completion percentage at Auburn, that number spiked to 71.9% last season causing Pro Football Network, 247 Sports, Yardbarker, CBS, NBC Sports Chicago, Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, Draftwire, and Cleveland.com to give him a first-round grade (nflmockdraftdatabase.com).

I am not on this ride.

Sure, Nix looks the part at first glance, but that’s where it ends for me.

When it comes to projecting talent into the NFL, it’s about having the skill set that translates to winning at the game’s most important position.

Nix is missing some pieces to that puzzle.

Hesitation

Oregon did its very best to mask this with all the short passes and moving pockets to manipulate the spike in completion percentage, but when Nix was left to his own devices in the pocket, he consistently and regularly shows hesitation throwing into the intermediate route level.

Whether he double clutches and instead runs, or he pauses for an extra obvious second before throwing into the intermediate range, this shows up. It is also apparent when deciding against throwing downfield and checking down short.

Bottom line — it showed up all the time in these five games.

Is he scared to make a mistake?

Does he not see the field or understand the coverage?

QBs who lock in and give NFL corners an extra moment or two before throwing show up on ESPN’s SportsCenter for all the wrong reasons.

Ball placement issues

Nix does not have elite downfield ball placement. It’s not even good. His placement at these route levels is average (at best).

Whether it was intermediate throws coming in too low or under-thrown deep passes, it was concerning.

Additionally, this showed up with ball security, which was a concern in my previous article as well. In this five-game study, another 10 passes were disrupted by defenders (2.0 per game average). In the 11 games studied that number is 24 disrupted passes (2.18 avg).

Under pressure

Outside of winning at the end of the Holiday Bowl against North Carolina 28-27, I am not impressed with Nix under pressure (critical downs or game-deciding situations).

This goes back to what shows up also in his hesitancy throwing when he momentarily freezes before throwing into the intermediate route level.

Last season, Oregon ranked No. 31 with a 43.92% third-down conversion rate (teamrankings.com).

Cousins comp

Ironically, a former NFL College Scouting Director told me the word on Cousins coming out of Michigan State was “inconsistent.” He told me, “That’s why he lasted til the fourth round.”

I am not a Cousins fan. I couldn’t wait until he was out of Washington, I personally wrote to the Browns’ owner begging him not to sign Cousins after he left the Redskins, and I told anyone who would listen he would never win a Super Bowl in Minnesota.

Cousins is the most overrated and overpaid player in NFL history – – great for fantasy football – awful for winning championships.

The name of the game is winning Super Bowls, and Cousins has won one playoff game (1-4) in his 11-year NFL career for $231.6 million dollars.

I see a lot of Cousins in Nix, except Cousins doesn’t hesitate.

#10 Bo Nix 6-foot-2, 213 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Summer 2023 Grade: Fifth-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

Projected by 34.1% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of July 3, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Previous article (2022: 6 games evaluated) Who is Bo Nix?

Additional 2022 game film reviewed: North Carolina, Oregon State, Colorado, CAL, and Stanford (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2022 stats: 294/409 (71.9%), 3593 yards, 29 TD, 7 INT, 5 sacks, long-67

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Athletic pro-style mobile passer with inconsistent ball placement intermediate to deep. Efficient short passing game. Prefers getting outside the pocket to create larger intermediate-throwing windows. Not nearly as comfortable or effective throwing intermediate passes from the pocket. Inconsistent deep. Capable of going through progressions, but then hard stares prior to intermediate delivery. Capable of picking up chunks of yardage on the ground. Knows how to protect himself.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season:

1. Consistently going through progressions?

2. Hesitation in the pocket before throwing intermediate?

3. How many passes are getting defended?

4. Response to pressure (pass rush and game situations)?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.