Pump the Brakes on Caleb Williams

There is no question USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams is extremely talented.

He has elite athleticism, mobility, and arm strength. Plus, he has big play capability. That’s the focus – – that’s what everyone sees.

How about beyond those raw attributes…

Does his skillet translate to an NFL championship-caliber franchise QB?

No.

Not based on the inconsistencies shown on his 2022 college game film, where he relied too heavily on that athleticism and rocket right arm and not enough on his mechanics and footwork.

I watched every one of Williams’ snaps last season, and these are the three reasons we need to pump the brakes on this 2024 NFL Draft prospect, and properly value and mitigate the risk.

1. Holds the ball too long

NFL offenses are built upon timing routes (2.0-2.9 second avg. release times).

As I mentioned, Williams shows he can do this half the time.

The other half the time, he doesn’t do this.

Is there proof Williams holds the ball too long in the pocket?

30 sacks last season.

Had it not been for Williams’ Houdini athleticism, that number would have been a lot higher.

2. Downfield ball placement issues

Downfield ball placement is not an elite characteristic of Williams, and this is a serious problem due to his inconsistent footwork.

Half of his game is about mechanics and timing routes (that look beautiful), and the other half of his game is based on athleticism and raw arm strength (with mixed results).

“Caleb Williams has had accuracy issues when he doesn’t set his feet, but when he does, he’s as good as anyone in America,” the television announcer said in the game against the University of Arizona.

This doesn’t show up so much in the five interceptions last season, as much as it shows up in 35 passes he threw over 14 games (2.5 avg. per game) that were disrupted by a defender.

Any one of those 35 passes could have easily turned into an interception, and possibly will in the NFL.

Additionally, Williams’ less-than-ideal downfield ball placement downfield showed when throws came in too high or too low and kept receivers from picking up additional yardage after the catch.

3. Declining play due to injury or aging

Arguably this could very well end up being the number one issue with Williams in the NFL – – injuries.

Sure, injury is a threat to any player, but some players (because of how they play) are more susceptible.

Williams’ game is built upon his athleticism and running.

If he gets hurt and loses some of that, he will lose who he is as a QB.

Williams is naturally a rough-and-tumble player who takes a lot of hard shots as a runner (113 carries, 382 yards, 3.4 avg., 10 TD)and he takes a lot of hits and sacks in the pocket.

How will his body hold up in the NFL?

I worry about his shelf life at the next level whether injury occurs or not. Either way, his athleticism will naturally decline, and as it does, so will his game.

According to Bleacher Report, the average career of NFL running backs is three years, and the way Williams runs around, I tend to believe his pro career will be in that range.

#13 Caleb Williams 6-foot-1, 215 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Summer 2023 Grade: Second-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 96.1% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of June 17, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Previous article (7 games evaluated): How Does Caleb Williams’ Game Film Translate to the NFL?

Additional 2022 game film reviewed: Utah (PAC 12 Championship Game), CAL, Tulane, Colorado, Fresno, ASU, and Arizona

2022 stats: 333/500 (66.6%), 4,537 yards, 42 TD, 5 INT, sacked 30 times, long-75

NFL starter ceiling: 9-8

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Gifted strong-armed playmaker with average rushing production and downfield ball placement. Good ball handling. Elite ability to create and extend. Inconsistent progressions. Screen passes are his bread and butter. Inconsistent placement at all three levels (short, intermediate, and deep). Rockets everything. Subject to drops and missed catches as a result. A determined runner who can make defenders miss.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season:

1. Does he show a faster release consistently?

2. Downfield ball placement on point?

3. How often are defenders touching his throws?

4. Does he put himself at risk running (or does he slide and run out of bounds)?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.