What They’re Not Telling You About Michael Penix Jr.

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Here we go again…this time it’s Huskies’ quarterback (QB) Michael Penix Jr.

Every year there just has to be a QB the media overhypes.

This year there is no exception. Even though it’s early…

NFL DRAFT PLATFORMS ARE ALREADY PUTTING BIG HYPE ON PENIX

NBC Sports Chicago, The Athletic, Barstool Sports, Fansided, CBS, Sharp Football Analysis, The Score, Fox Sports, The 33rd Team, and Bleacher Report have already stamped first-round grades on Penix right out of the gates after the 2023 NFL Draft.

However, there’s nothing on his 2022 game film at Washington that remotely suggests he’s developing into a franchise NFL QB.

Nothing.

Not a big fan to begin with

College Football Resume: QB Michael Penix Jr. pic.twitter.com/GVqk9OuiIq

— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) May 9, 2023

As much as they are trying to get everyone to forget – – this is the same Penix who played for four seasons at Indiana while producing nothing but mediocrity there.

I evaluated him at Indiana on 2021 game film when I gave him an undraftable free agent grade.

His full body of work at Indiana overall was a rollercoaster.

Completion percentage

2018: 61.8%

2019: 68.8%

2020: 56.4%

2021: 53.7%

Furthermore, his injury resume at Indiana was just as concerning:

2018: torn right ACL

2019: Sternoclavicular joint (connecting the clavicle to the sternum)

2020: torn right ACL

2021: AC joint shoulder issues

Granted in 2022, he looked somewhat better on game film as he completed 65.3% of his passes, and he managed to stay healthy.

However, one problem remained exactly the same…

Erratic downfield ball placement

This is a very real concern with Penix.

It’s also one of the best predictors for future failure in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks.

Penix’s downfield ball placement was all over the road at Indiana in the three games I evaluated in 2021, and it looked just as bad at Washington.

It was the exact same guy, just wearing a different helmet.

For every well placed downfield pass, he fires one into the turf, or launches another one over everyone’s head.

He really is inconsistent at the intermediate route level.

Even on completed passes, there were countless times when receivers ended up on the ground after making the grabs because they had to adjust.

Stop touching the ball

This is another big problem with Penix that does not translate to winning in the NFL.

In these five games evaluated in 2022, defenders got their hands on Penix’s throws 21x.

That’s a lot.

Why is Penix having these problems?

There’s a few logical game film driven reasons.

1. Inconsistent mechanics

2. Leads with an inconsistent energy level

3. Inconsistent release times

4. Average football IQ demonstrated on game film (throwing late into coverage or making the decision to throw into heavily defended areas).

NFL back-up trajectory

To date, Penix has not shown the necessary traits it takes to be a first-round draft choice, or to be a winning starting QB in the National Football League.

QBs who struggle with their downfield ball placement, and struggle with ball security are not cut out for a starting role at the next level.

They don’t win consistently enough.

Game film says Penix has an 8-9 starting QB ceiling in the NFL based on what he’s shown so far.

#9 Michael Penix Jr. 6-foot-3, 214 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Spring 2023 Grade: Fifth-Round (I wouldn’t select him)

Projected by 57.6% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 9, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2022 game film reviewed: Texas, Stanford, Michigan State, Oregon, and UCLA (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2022 stats: 362/554 (65.3%), 4641 yards, 31 TD, 8 INT, 5 sacks, long-84

Injury risk: High

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Inconsistent athletic left-handed QB with good pocket mobility. Raw looking. Can move around, but prefers not to take off. Leads with a slower methodical tempo. Most comfortable throwing short range passes. Settles a lot for safety valve throws. Can lock in and not go through progressions. Tendency to hold the ball too long. Timing looks off. Throwing mechanics vary. Undependable throwing. Sometimes looks like he is pushing the ball out. Prefers throwing short or deep (inconsistent at both levels). Good arm. Can look uncomfortable throwing intermediate routes. Struggles reading coverages. Ball tends to sail high or overthrow. Slides when he runs. Poor man’s version of former NFL QB Rodney Peete.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season:

1. What does his ball placement look like?

2. Ball security?

3. Making bad throwing decisions?

4. Going through his progressions?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.