KJ Jefferson Showing Signs of Improvement

It didn’t take long watching Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson on 2022 game film to see that he was better than he looked in 2021 when I gave him an undraftable free agent grade.

It also didn’t take long to realize this quarterback (QB) still has a long way to go if he hopes to become a successful starter in the NFL.

Nothing kills an NFL career faster than inconsistency, and Jefferson’s game film is spray painted with it.

However, I did walk away from watching this past year’s performance feeling much more optimistic about his chances at the next level.

The thing that struck me against Cincinnati is he really was starting to learn to play more within himself in 2022 (handing the ball off, running it himself, and keeping throws in the shorter range).

That was the biggest positive.

The other thing I really like about Jefferson is he has shown steady improvements in four straight college seasons with his completion percentage and his overall rating (espn.com).

While I don’t see the Cam Newton comparison, I do see the potential of Jefferson developing into a solid NFL backup if he continues to improve and can learn to protect the football better.

Run KJ Run!

Just like in my favorite movie of all time, Forrest Gump, it didn’t take me long watching Jefferson these past two seasons to see this is what he does best, which is running the ball.

2021: 146 carries, 664 yards (4.5 avg.), 6 TD

2022: 158 carries, 640 yards (4.1 avg.), 9 TD

It wasn’t uncommon to see him picking up nice gains of 5-to-10 yards at a time (sometimes more).

Jefferson is a physical runner who sports a thick muscular frame, and he runs like he means it. He’ll run right into the jaws of the defense and lower his shoulder.

This is Jefferson’s most consistent and top attribute he brings to the draft board.

Improvements shown

My biggest knock on Jefferson on his 2021 game film was he was holding the ball in the pocket way too long.

While he still tends to do that from time to time, he showed in 2022 he could make faster decisions at times.

I liked seeing that.

Jefferson also appears to be going through his progressions more often, which is another good sign that translates to the NFL.

The three big problems

1. Tendency is still there to hold the ball too long at times (which directly leads into the next two issues).

2. Inconsistent downfield ball placement.

3. Ball security issues (opposing defenses touched his passes 17x n this six-game study).

Nothing will derail Jefferson’s NFL aspirations faster than these three things.

While Jefferson showed signs of having a quicker release in 2022, in 2023 he will need to consistently show he can process the game quickly and get the ball out.

If he can, it should take care of the other two issues.

#1 KJ Jefferson 6-foot-3, 242 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Spring 2023 Grade: Fourth-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 1.4% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 17, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2022 game film reviewed: Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina, Cincinnati, BYU, and Missouri State (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2022 stats: 204/300 (68.0%), 2648 yards, 24 TD, 5 INT, 23 sacks, 73-long

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Athletic and thick-framed inconsistent dual-role prospect who is a solid runner. Good ball handling. Inconsistent release and going through his progressions. Holding the ball too long leads to taking off running or throwing short check-down passes. Decent extending plays behind the line. Much more of a north-south runner. Sometimes has trouble recognizing coverages. Strong arm, but erratic intermediate to deep placement. Best when finding wide-open receivers downfield. Tough and determined runner.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season:

1. Release time?

2. Ball security?

3. Intermediate to deep placement?

4. Further improvement shown?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.