Joe Milton III First Round Arm Talent

Tennessee quarterback (QB) Joe Milton III has arm talent as people like to say on social media.

Said another way – – said the old school way – – Milton has a cannon for a right arm.

Of course, it takes a lot more than a big arm to successfully transition from the college ranks to the NFL, but Milton has shown rapid development in limited action over the past two seasons.

I’m excited to see him play in 2023!

In what ways did Milton show improvement?

It was rough watching Milton in 2021 against Bowling Green.

…rough from an NFL perspective.

Milton stood in the pocket like he had all day to throw and he hard-starred his receivers like two people who lock eyes at a bar.

He got away with in college, but there’s no way that would fly in the NFL, a league of 2.0-2.9 second QB release times, and opportunistic corners who make a living picking off telegraphed throws.

Then in 2022, when Milton played against Vanderbilt, and it struck me that his release looked faster.

I thought maybe there’s hope?

Milton didn’t go through his progressions in 2021, but in 2022 against Clemson in the Orange Bowl he showed was doing it!

Again – – I thought maybe there’s hope...

When I saw Milton do these things, I went from thinking of him as a developmental project, to thinking of him as an elite prospect.

Milton hasn’t played a whole lot, which makes him even more exciting, because of the rapid improvement he’s shown in these key areas.

Milton has a very high ceiling.

Ball placement and security

These two things are huge in the NFL.

QBs having the ability to put the ball right where it needs to be downfield, giving his receivers their best chance at picking up additional yardage after the catch.

Keeping the ball out of harm’s way is equally as important.

Milton did a nice job in both of these categories as well.

Dynamic vibe

The necessary improvements this Tennessee QB made from 2021 to 2022 (culminating in the Orange Bowl) were also in line with the vibe I got, while watching him play on game film the entire time.

Milton comes off as alert and smart.

He has a very bright personality.

I really like how he carries himself.

There’s a lot of energy in his body language and there’s a lot of intelligence in his eyes.

Big league arm

This is the main attraction.

Not only can he torpedo throws into the short to intermediate range – – he can launch it deep.

I’m not much for theatrics.

I didn’t get into the over-dramatization of Former Gators’ and current Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson hitting the ceiling on his pro day (any able-bodied college QB could do that), but Milton launching an orange a 100-yards did catch my attention.

It caught my attention because it translates to game film (and that’s what really matters).

Wow can Milton throw.

Better prospect

Speaking of Richardson, Milton is clearly a better prospect than the Colts’ top draft choice in 2023.

How is he better?

For starters, he’s a QB first, and a runner second.

Next, he has a much stronger arm.

Milton’s downfield ball placement is also dramatically more accurate.

He protects the football better and makes smarter throwing decisions.

Milton processes the game faster.

#7 Joe Milton III 6-foot-5, 245 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Spring 2023 Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

Projected by: 0.0% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 7, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2021 game film reviewed: Bowling Green (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2022 game film reviewed: Vanderbilt, Ball State, and Clemson

2022 stats: 53/82 (64.6%), 971 yards, 10 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks, long-64

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Big square framed athletic dual-role prospect with a bazooka for an arm. Tightness in his movements. Decent ball handling. Instinctual pocket presence. Robotic mechanics. Inconsistent progressions and release times. Can bail when pocket is collapsing. Fairly accurate rolling out either direction. Lacks finesse on short to intermediate-range throws. Guns it. Spreads the ball around while working the whole field. Below-average placement deep and tends to overthrow. Tough and physical runner with acceleration. Picks up decent chunks of yardage running.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season:

1. Mechanics look robotic?

2. Going through his progressions consistently?

3. Holding the ball too long in the pocket?

4. Deep accuracy?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.