How Does Caleb Williams’ Game Film Translate to the NFL?

Caleb Williams is a phenomenal college quarterback (QB).

He was so good he won the Heisman Trophy at USC last season.

Heisman winning QBs have had mixed success transitioning into the NFL. For every Joe Burrow, there’s a Marcus Mariota, and a Johnny Manziel.

Which side of the Heisman fence will Williams end up on?

Elite mobility

He’s like a “Human Joystick.”

It’s incredible watching Williams evading and escaping in the pocket.

He was able to bail out and either throw with a mixed bag of accuracy, or take off and gain nice chunks of yardage running.

Vision and ball distribution

Williams sees the field exceptionally well, and he spreads the ball around.

That really stood out to me when I evaluated Buffalo’s QB Josh Allen.

Williams is very similar.

Dynamic look and feel

Williams had a couple shovel passes in this block of game film, a jump pass and something I’ve never seen before in 40+ years, a no look handoff.

All that stuff gives Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes’ vibes.

Pro ready?

There are other things to look for when determining how well college prospects can make the jump to the pros – – and Williams checks other boxes as well.

✓ Going through progressions

✓ Arm strength

Timing routes are a huge concern

Williams’ game is built around scrambling and dictating to defenses. He doesn’t like to just sit in the pocket and throw, which makes throwing timing routes impossible on these plays. Instead, he looks for broken coverages or wide open receivers.

His game is different than 2023 No. 1 pick overall, QB Bryce Young (CAR). Young scrambles all around like Williams creating and extending, but Young’s game isn’t built on just doing that.

Williams tends to hold the ball too long. Sure, it’s how he makes a lot of great plays, but it also causes a bunch of other issues.

How will holding the ball too long play out in a league with average release times between 2.5 and 3.0 seconds?

I find it odd that someone on the No. 12 ranked team with Hall of Fame pocket mobility got sacked 30x, compared to Oregon (No. 15) QB Bo Nix who got sacked 5 times.

Ball placement concern

I was surprised at how inconsistent Williams’ downfield ball placement was.

Too often his throws were not right there – – where receivers needed them.

I expected more from a “generational talent.”

Ball security concern

In these seven games, college defenders got their hands on Williams’ passes 20x.

How many of those 20 passes would turn into interceptions in the NFL?

Injury concern

Taking off and running is a big part of Williams’ game. He’s dependent on it.

He doesn’t always slide, in fact, he’s a physical runner with good speed.

It’s not uncommon to see him throw out a stiff-arm or put a shoulder into a defender.

How will he hold up doing that in the NFL?

How have other QBs held up who run a lot?

#13 Caleb Williams 6-foot-1, 215 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Spring 2023 Grade: Second-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 94.2% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 4, 2023

2022 game film evaluated: UCLA, Notre Dame, Stanford, Utah, Washington State, Oregon State, and Rice (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2022 stats: 333/500 (66.6%), 4537 yards, 42 TD, 5 INT, 75-long

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Athletic gifted dual-role QB with elite arm talent, but inconsistent downfield ball placement. Excellent ball handling skills. Tremendously poised setting up shop in the pocket. Elite creating and extending. Inconsistent placement at all three route levels (short, intermediate and deep). Best throwing short outside. Loves the off-script and off-platform stuff. Makes some wow throws. Best throwing intermediate routes featuring break points. Throws it away under pressure if he can. Defended passes resulting from mistiming, not wild chances. Will take off and run. Tough runner with noticeable acceleration.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season:

1. Does he show a faster release?

2. Downfield ball placement on point?

3. How often are defenders touching his throws?

4. Does he put himself at risk running (or does he slide and run out of bounds)?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.