Former NFL Scout Brings John Rhys Plumlee Back to Earth

Some players are throwbacks, while others fit the present NFL timeline, then there’s University of Central Florida’s (UCF) quarterback (QB) John Rhys Plumlee.

He’s from the future.

While league offenses continue evolving quickly, I’m not sure if they will have caught up to Plumlee when he gets there.

If you don’t believe me, look at the Jets’ QB Zach Wilson, who excels in the off-script stuff, but he hasn’t excelled in the NFL.

Plumlee’s vast background includes playing collegiate baseball and he also spent time at wide receiver at Ole Miss prior to transferring to UCF.

Did I mention he also plays the piano?

Plumlee best fits a razzle-dazzle type of offense.

Whichever NFL team selects Plumlee needs to know what they are getting.

They are not getting a traditional pocket passer who thrives in structure.

In fact, they’re getting quite the opposite.

Plumlee doesn’t adjust to a system, a team adjusts to Plumlee.

Perhaps this explains why he went from Ole Miss to UCF?

How else does it make any sense that they switched him from QB to receiver?

How else does it make any sense Ole Miss ever let him walk and no other big program picked him up?

Nobody is questioning his out-of-this-world athletic ability or his rocket arm.

The question is can he be a successful starter in today’s NFL – – or is he just a faster version of the Saints’ QB Taysom Hill?

Poor man’s Mahomes

Back when I was growing up, teams were trying to duplicate 49ers’ Head Coach Bill Walsh’s West Coast Offense and find the next Joe Montana.

Of course, Montana was Walsh’s QB.

It was an offense predicated on short, quick, and accurate high-percentage throws, and nobody could duplicate that system with the same rate of success.

That was then and this is now.

The craze today is Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes and his off-script, off-platform brand of football.

Mahomes’ Head Coach is Andy Reid.

Ironically, Reid’s roots can be traced back to Walsh.

Now college QBs are trying to be the next Patrick Mahomes.

However, there’s only one Mahomes.

Plumlee’s issues

His inconsistent throwing mechanics are where the disconnect occurs for me.

1. Downfield ball placement

2. Ball security

Plumlee looks more comfortable throwing on the move than he does from the pocket, and it shows in his downfield ball placement.

While his placement is “decent” it’s not great at the intermediate to deep route levels.

It’s too inconsistent.

His passes tend to sail high and for every great couple of throws on a rope, there’s one that was not on point.

The other elephant in the room – – ball security.

In this seven-game study, opposing defenses got a hand on his passes 18x.

The reason?

Plumlee tends to lock in with his receivers and defenders who read his eyes are disrupting his passes both at the line of scrimmage and further downfield.

In 2022, Plumlee had a 14-8 (TD-to-INT) ratio, and in his last significant time at QB prior to that in 2019 for Ole Miss that same ratio was 4-3.

Something’s off here.

Yeah, it’s his accuracy.

NFL health

When it comes to draft capital investment, I’m impressed, but concerned with Plumlee’s style of running.

He’s a physical, determined, and gifted runner.

Running is a big part of his game (2022: 159 carries, 862 yards, 5.4 yards avg. 11 TD).

Can he stay healthy running around like that in the NFL?

#10 John Rhys Plumlee 6-foot-0, 200 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Spring 2023 Grade: Fourth-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 0% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 29, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2022 game film reviewed: Cincinnati, Tulane, SMU, Tulane (AAC CCG), Duke, Temple, and Louisville (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2022 stats: 218/346 (63.0%), 2586 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT, 28 sacks, 68-long

Best fit: Washington Commanders

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Determined athletic fast dual-threat with average downfield ball placement concerns. Extremely competitive. Plays football like a shortstop in baseball. Fancy ball-handling skills. Fast reflexes. Instinctual. Capable of quick decisions. Leads with quick tempo. Makes side-armed and shovels off-platform throws. Good rolling out either direction. NFL arm. Legit runner with good speed. Can make defenders miss in the open field.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season

1. TD-to-INT ratio?

2. Downfield ball placement?

3. 2023 vs. 2022?

4. Does he stay healthy?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.